soxfan
soxfan
Joined: Oct 10, 2013
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February 19th, 2014 at 10:59:57 PM permalink
Years ago I tested a don't pass style against wincraps and it showed a decent profit after 500k rolls. I never played it live, and I never thought wincraps to be an accurate representation of a real dice game. Besides, why test against some ridiculous amount of rolls that a cat will never live long enough to see, hey hey?
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
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February 19th, 2014 at 11:03:15 PM permalink
Quote: soxfan

Years ago I tested a don't pass style against wincraps and it showed a decent profit after 500k rolls. I never played it live, and I never thought wincraps to be an accurate representation of a real dice game. Besides, why test against some ridiculous amount of rolls that a cat will never live long enough to see, hey hey?



Some truth here. Who's got the endurance to play 1000 rolls in a session?

Sims are fun math experiments and not much else.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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February 19th, 2014 at 11:10:39 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Some truth here. Who's got the endurance to play 1000 rolls in a session?

Sims are fun math experiments and not much else.

everyone gets to play in only one session. It lasts a lifetime.
most press the pause button and resume play at a later time.

Why?
at Craps each bet is an independent event just as each dice roll is.
Play 200 rolls today, and tomorrow and 600 rolls in two weeks, you have 1000 rolls
do that for the next 10 months and now you have 10,000 rolls.

large simulations make for more accurate results with a small error
smaller trial simulations make for larger errors

I just flipped a quarter 10 times and I got 6 heads
This coin produces 60% heads
no need to do any more flips. 60/40

wanna bet?
funny stuff
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
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February 20th, 2014 at 1:34:47 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Doesn't ANYONE going to mention the fact he's looking for 1000-1000000 rolls on a $200 BR but is betting about 1/4 of his br at a time? ???????

After 1k rolls you will have $0.
After 10k rolls you will have $0.
After 100k or 1m rolls you will have $0.



Right now I have a WinCraps sim running where I started with $100, betting $5 + 3/4/3 Odds as described in the OP.

It's approaching 2500 rolls, over 265 completed turns, with a high bankroll of $930 and an average bankroll of 213.

And let's be honest, we're betting over 1/3 of the opening bankroll here.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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February 20th, 2014 at 1:44:52 PM permalink
Not trying to hijack this thread, just to lazy to start another. My daughter Mary Jo in calculus class as part of her teaching degree.
She is red headed, afraid of nothing and a real con artist ( Must get that from Josie's side of the family, don't you think? ).
Anyway class was trying to define infinite or infinity.

Kids were talking about infinite hotel, infinite guests, infinite number of seats on a bus, etc. Not taking credit, just something I read somewhere a long time ago.

Mary Jo said " My popa says if you have an infinite number of monkeys and an infinite number of teletypewriters, one of the monkeys will type the complete works of William Shakespeare. "

Of course she told me this as she was borrowing $1500 from the Bank Of Popa, but I am giving her the benefit of the doubt, that it really happened !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
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February 21st, 2014 at 12:10:53 AM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Right now I have a WinCraps sim running where I started with $100, betting $5 + 3/4/3 Odds as described in the OP.

It's approaching 2500 rolls, over 265 completed turns, with a high bankroll of $930 and an average bankroll of 213.

And let's be honest, we're betting over 1/3 of the opening bankroll here.



Like I had mentioned earlier, open config > Probabilities and set the 7 to 4 or 5 as that wincraps program runs too many sevens.
8 more years till retirement.

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