Short Run Predictions
Quote: FrankScobleteWhat predictive value does the short run have in a random game of craps?
I predict you will 7-out.
Agreed. But even in, say, a session running a half-hour to an hour there is a strong likelihood that you're going to be ahead at some point, assuming the not-always-present reality of being too far behind to catch up. The trick is to know when to stop, as discussed at some length just before the end of the productive life of r.g.c.Quote: FrankScobleteWhat predictive value does the short run have in a random game of craps?[q+
Quote: AlanMendelsonI predict you will 7-out.
Quote: FrankScobleteWhat predictive value does the short run have in a random game of craps?
None whatsoever, unless by "predictive value" you mean something other than what is implied by the fact that dice rolls are independent. But you knew that already...
I always wonder in random games what logic players use to restructure their betting scheme because of short-term results. On another web site I posted a different question: If a series of nines came up in a RANDOM game of craps and a new shooter was now up, what would you bet? Most answers were simply they would place the nine --- going up against a 4 percent house edge. The thought was the nine "is" hot.
I tend to reject the use of the word "is" when speaking of hot tables at random games. The word that can be used is the word "was." The table was hot. Right now, who knows what it is? Also a table is just a table; shooters are just shooters. There is no "is" during random games. There's a "was" and a "will be" --- although the "will be" is not an answerable question except citing probabilities.
I read all the time that nobody plays in the long run and that short run results can be really different than the probabilities. This is a true statement (for most players) but I go one step further --- why would you change how you bet the game? I am of the opinion that there can only be one strategy at a random game and that strategy uses the house edge and speed of the game to determine what the best bets are regardless of the short-run fluctuations. Thus, by extension, there can only be a long-run strategy used since there is no such thing as a short-run strategy that makes sense (other than, as a purist would say when a casino has the edge, don't play at all).
So I wanted to see what method players use with short-run results to make what they consider to be new strategies that go against long-run strategies.
Obviously, I failed miserably with this post.
But to answer your question as it was worded....... NONE!
In Craps I might be bugged by how often Craps is rolled, but I really don't have a entertainment strategy to deal with it. Nothing else in Craps gets my attention much.
I never recommend mini-bac because you can play upwards of 150 hands per hour. Even with a low house edge, the speed of the game really hurts.
Quote: FrankScoblete
I read all the time that nobody plays in the long run and that short run results can be really different than the probabilities. This is a true statement (for most players) but I go one step further --- why would you change how you bet the game? I am of the opinion that there can only be one strategy at a random game and that strategy uses the house edge and speed of the game to determine what the best bets are regardless of the short-run fluctuations. Thus, by extension, there can only be a long-run strategy used since there is no such thing as a short-run strategy that makes sense (other than, as a purist would say when a casino has the edge, don't play at all).
Frank when you ask the question about why you would change the way you bet in the short run, I had visions of all those poor guys that will stand at the table only betting on the 6’s and 8’s when nobody is hitting them, and everybody is rolling nothing but 4’s and 10’s. These players have been so well trained that they refuse to see what is happening at the table they are on, and go home broke.
When you are talking about any betting strategy, you are actually talking about a betting system!
Like it or not; that is all a strategy is, if you set something up before hand and stick to it you have a system, and by now everybody should know that systems fail miserably when playing craps!
If you write that everybody that follows you should only bet on the 6 and 8 you just sold them a silly system that will fail from time to time, and I don’t care what the odds are on those two numbers, because again you are always playing in the short run when you are at any craps table, if you leave anytime before 10,000 rolls of the dice happen. The long run that everybody thinks happens because they play a few games of craps in their life time, will never happen while they are at any given table.
Every player needs to know the math of the game so they can make wise bets, but for those bets to be wise bets, they need to hit so the player can get paid off on the bet they just placed. Some readers take everything they read as a fact, that is 100% correct and will not bend from what they have been taught. One way of looking at it would be to look at the tree in your front yard, if you have a major storm and the tree does not bend it snaps in half, or many of the branches will be broken off, leaving it to die!
The same things happens at the craps tables all the time, you have players that will not bend when they are playing; they stick to what they have been taught, and die a slow death at the tables. I often get a kick out of watching someone that knows the game but will not change how they are playing go down in flames, and standing right next to them is someone that never played the game before winning more money then they ever dreamed of!
The reason they are winning is very simple, nobody every taught they how to bet, they don’t know that bets they are making are what all the books says are the worst bets on the table, all they know is what they are seeing happening on the table, when they are playing!
Quote: FrankScoblete
So I wanted to see what method players use with short-run results to make what they consider to be new strategies that go against long-run strategies.
Years ago before they had GPS and aviation was in its infancy, the pilots would fly by the seat of their pants. They didn’t have the books that told them what to do; they learned what to do by experience. Most good craps players learn the same way, although today if you don’t read about the game you are a fool. There is a vast amount of knowledge available to the craps players.
For the price of a few red chips you can learn from guys that have been before you, but you have to sort out everything you read, most of the books on the game of craps are just rehashed books, that the Arthur of a book took ideas from other authors, and changed the way they are presenting them to the public. If you cover most of them so you didn’t know who wrote the book, most readers couldn’t tell if Frank S wrote it or if J. Edward Allen wrote it. No,.. Frank I’m not saying that you or Allen plagiarized anything, all I’m saying is you can only write about betting so many ways, and if you have a large library on playing craps, just about every book you read will have the same thing in it.
A good example would be Bet the Pass-line and Two Come Bets, you can find that in just about every book on craps! Is it the right thing to do, you tell me, but in my book it’s just stupid, am I right or wrong, it all depends on when I’m at the table. One size does not fit all!
So you have to make up your own mind, stick to what you have been told to bet on and go down in flames when it’s not working, or fly my the seat of your pants. I’m not going to tell everybody how I bet the game. But I will tell everybody that I don’t use one betting method, and I fly by the seat of my pants when I’m on any craps table, changing how I bet when the table is changing!
...
What "is" happening at the table "is" nothing. What happened, happened, and is no indicator of what will happen, meaning will the streak we saw continue to overcome the house edge? If the game is random, the game is random. You can't get around that. Thinking that what you have seen will give you insight into what will happen is wrong.
Placing the 6 and 8, while a decent bet at craps, is not the best bet. Yes, the Pass Line and Come for a minor amount and putting full odds (or what you can afford) is the best way to play. (For a controlled shooter, my recommendations might be somewhat different.)
At a random game, you just have to go with the lowest house edge bets. I go even further with my "system"; I recommend one bet (Pass or Come) after the 5-Count (which eliminates 57 percent of the random rolls) with odds and that's that. It then just becomes your one bet against the seven on the right side; or the seven against the number on the wrong side.
Here is something that we should ask ourselves with shooters who have hit certain numbers in streaks: Are these shooters from this point forward capable of overcoming the house edge on the number into the future? If the answer is yes, sure bet the number. If the answer is no, which it will almost always be, then don't bet the number. If the answer is no, then you must simply go with the lowest house edge bet.
I really can't imagine a better approach than this (other than never to play a game where you don't have an edge).
Quote: FrankScobleteSuperrick, I have to disagree with you, although you are presenting your case in an interesting way.
Quote:What "is" happening at the table "is" nothing. What happened, happened, and is no indicator of what will happen, meaning will the streak we saw continue to overcome the house edge? If the game is random, the game is random. You can't get around that. Thinking that what you have seen will give you insight into what will happen is wrong.
If past performance has no predictive value then why recommend the five count? With each successive roll all shooter's are closer to the 7, now that is a true statement.Quote:Placing the 6 and 8, while a decent bet at craps, is not the best bet. Yes, the Pass Line and Come for a minor amount and putting full odds (or what you can afford) is the best way to play. (For a controlled shooter, my recommendations might be somewhat different.)
I like this one, the 6&8 are not the best bets. Pass/come w/odds is best, what? Letting fate determine the best numbers not once but twice is a superior method of choosing where to put our money. How is that better then picking numbers out of a hat? Never lost a come bet to a deuce or tres, eh? Or are you thinking of a come bet as hedging? You know what they say about hedging.Quote:At a random game, you just have to go with the lowest house edge bets. I go even further with my "system"; I recommend one bet (Pass or Come) after the 5-Count (which eliminates 57 percent of the random rolls) with odds and that's that. It then just becomes your one bet against the seven on the right side; or the seven against the number on the wrong side.
Ok, now we are getting to the meat, Mr. Scoblete has a system. How does letting the dice choose the number to wager on give a player the advantage of betting on the lowest house edge? The past has no predictive value on the future, correct? As far as the value on a five count, we got a shooter here that never rolls more than 6. How bout 4th roll only, one roll and down? Not a suggestion, but I know you know the stats.Quote:Here is something that we should ask ourselves with shooters who have hit certain numbers in streaks: Are these shooters from this point forward capable of overcoming the house edge on the number into the future? If the answer is yes, sure bet the number. If the answer is no, which it will almost always be, then don't bet the number. If the answer is no, then you must simply go with the lowest house edge bet.
Wouldn't tracking the table be of some good use here when trying to determine our opinions of whether or not a shooter might repeat a particular number? We've all been at a table and played with a group that didn't change and observed shooter's who either were able to roll consistently good or consistently bad.
Repeatedly for the majority of their rolls. To believe in what we observed in the short term we would have to step outside the mathematical relevance to what is seen. What are you going to do, bet against what's happening on the felt? Remembering the past has no predictive value in craps. I don't think so.
I really can't imagine a better approach than this (other than never to play a game where you don't have an edge).
If you track the table, do not forget to send John Patrick his royalty check.
Quote: Buzzard" Wouldn't tracking the table be of some good use here "
If you track the table, do not forget to send John Patrick his royalty check.
I thought all you old shop stewards were big on past precedence?
I haven't read Patrick, but if he is the original conceptualizer and holds the patent on keeping track then I may have inadvertently plagiarized his works and may indeed owe him royalty's from the vast fortune's I've acquired using his methods?
On the other hand, had I followed his system verbatim and lost as much as I think I have shouldn't he send me a refund?
PETROGLYPH: If past performance has no predictive value then why recommend the five count? With each successive roll all shooter's are closer to the 7, now that is a true statement.
FRANK: Sorry Petroglyph, that is not a true statement. We are no closer to the seven in a random game no matter what roll will be occurring. However, the 5-Count reduces your exposure to random rolls by 57 percent. This has been established by mathematicians Dr. Donald Catlin and Dr. Stewart Ethier. Even if the shooter you are watching makes it through the 5-Count, he is only 16.67 percent likely to see a seven on the sixth roll and only 16.67 percent likely to see a seven on the seventh roll or only 16.67 percent likely to see the seven on the eighth roll. The seven is no more or less closer than on any other roll. But as you play, you will note how many seven-outs occur before the 5-Count. Add them all up and your exposure will be reduced by 57 percent facing random rolls. That’s what the 5-Count means; it has nothing to do with your way of looking at it.
Too many players make the same mistake as you do, thinking the seven is closer to showing after the 5-Count than before the 5-Count. It isn’t. The 5-Count is really a way to reduce your exposure to the house edge since you are betting on 57 percent fewer rolls.
PETROGLYPH: I like this one, the 6&8 are not the best bets? Pass/come w/odds is best, what? Letting fate determine the best numbers not once but twice is a superior method of choosing where to put our money. How is that better then picking numbers out of a hat? Never lost a come bet to a deuce or tres, eh? Or are you thinking of a come bet as hedging? You know what they say about hedging.
FRANK: The six and eight are not the best bets at a random game. Hedging is just awful. Read these articles:
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-one-cut-the-hedge-betting-from-your-game/
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-two-is-hedging-on-the-dont-something-you-should-do/
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-three-are-hedges-in-the-field-with-a-cut/
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-four-a-hedge-bet-that-really-does-work-by-frank-scoblete/
Placing the six and eight are decent bets coming in with a 1.52 percent house edge on the total bet. If you bet $30 on the six against every shooter, your expectation is to lose about 46 cents per placement over time. If you bet a $5 Come and it goes to the six (or any other number for that matter – you’d have to add $1 in odds for the five and nine) and you put $25 odds on it, your total bet is $30 but (and this is the key) your expectation betting this way is to lose 7 cents. So one bet on the six at $30 and one $5 come with 5X odds shows a major difference of 39 cents in expectation. In short, your Place bet is far worse than the Come with 5X odds.
PETROGLYPH: Ok, now we are getting to the meat, Mr. Scoblete has a system. How does letting the dice choose the number to wager on give a player the advantage of betting on the lowest house edge? The past has no predictive value on the future, correct? As far as the value on a five count, we got a shooter here that never rolls more than 6. How bout 4th roll only, one roll and down? Not a suggestion, but I know you know the stats.
FRANK: Betting the six every time (or any number willfully every time) is the exact same as picking a number out of the hat at a random game --- only your overall wins will be less because you face a greater house edge when it comes to the payoffs. Give this some thought.
Do I have a “system” for betting on random rollers at craps? Of course. Every casino player and every other gambling writer recommend systems at random games --- those are just methods of betting. Some systems make sense (mine of course!) and some are foolish --- trend betting at random games for one or just playing by instinct at random games (which, when you think about it, are the exact same thing).
PETROGLYPH: Wouldn't tracking the table be of some good use here when trying to determine our opinions of whether or not a shooter might repeat a particular number? We've all been at a table and played with a group that didn't change and observed shooter's who either were able to roll consistently good or consistently bad repeatedly for the majority of their rolls. To believe in what we observed in the short term we would have to step outside the mathematical relevance to what is seen. What are you going to do, bet against what's happening on the felt? Remembering the past has no predictive value in craps? I don't think so.
FRANK: At a random game, you wish the past was an indication of the future. I wish so too. But it isn’t. Only probabilities can be projected, not actualities --- streaks will come and go but you just can’t pin them down. My advice is always to bet the low house edge bets. I do not see anything wrong with that advice for players who wish to play random casino games. I also think you have to be aware of the speed of games to get a handle on what your bets can expect to lose over time.
I know there are gambling writers and even dice control gurus that think you can track numbers at a random game and then structure your bets accordingly. As soon as they write this --- run!
Quote: FrankScobleteYou can't copyright a gambling system but it is proper to give credit if you can. Now to your response to my post:
PETROGLYPH: If past performance has no predictive value then why recommend the five count? With each successive roll all shooter's are closer to the 7, now that is a true statement.
FRANK: Sorry Petroglyph, that is not a true statement. We are no closer to the seven in a random game no matter what roll will be occurring. However, the 5-Count reduces your exposure to random rolls by 57 percent. This has been established by mathematicians Dr. Donald Catlin and Dr. Stewart Ethier. Even if the shooter you are watching makes it through the 5-Count, he is only 16.67 percent likely to see a seven on the sixth roll and only 16.67 percent likely to see a seven on the seventh roll or only 16.67 percent likely to see the seven on the eighth roll. The seven is no more or less closer than on any other roll. But as you play, you will note how many seven-outs occur before the 5-Count. Add them all up and your exposure will be reduced by 57 percent facing random rolls. That’s what the 5-Count means; it has nothing to do with your way of looking at it.
Too many players make the same mistake as you do, thinking the seven is closer to showing after the 5-Count than before the 5-Count. It isn’t. The 5-Count is really a way to reduce your exposure to the house edge since you are betting on 57 percent fewer rolls.
PETROGLYPH: I like this one, the 6&8 are not the best bets? Pass/come w/odds is best, what? Letting fate determine the best numbers not once but twice is a superior method of choosing where to put our money. How is that better then picking numbers out of a hat? Never lost a come bet to a deuce or tres, eh? Or are you thinking of a come bet as hedging? You know what they say about hedging.
FRANK: The six and eight are not the best bets at a random game. Hedging is just awful. Read these articles:
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-one-cut-the-hedge-betting-from-your-game/
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-two-is-hedging-on-the-dont-something-you-should-do/
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-three-are-hedges-in-the-field-with-a-cut/
http://frankscoblete.com/articles/part-four-a-hedge-bet-that-really-does-work-by-frank-scoblete/
Placing the six and eight are decent bets coming in with a 1.52 percent house edge on the total bet. If you bet $30 on the six against every shooter, your expectation is to lose about 46 cents per placement over time. If you bet a $5 Come and it goes to the six (or any other number for that matter – you’d have to add $1 in odds for the five and nine) and you put $25 odds on it, your total bet is $30 but (and this is the key) your expectation betting this way is to lose 7 cents. So one bet on the six at $30 and one $5 come with 5X odds shows a major difference of 39 cents in expectation. In short, your Place bet is far worse than the Come with 5X odds.
PETROGLYPH: Ok, now we are getting to the meat, Mr. Scoblete has a system. How does letting the dice choose the number to wager on give a player the advantage of betting on the lowest house edge? The past has no predictive value on the future, correct? As far as the value on a five count, we got a shooter here that never rolls more than 6. How bout 4th roll only, one roll and down? Not a suggestion, but I know you know the stats.
FRANK: Betting the six every time (or any number willfully every time) is the exact same as picking a number out of the hat at a random game --- only your overall wins will be less because you face a greater house edge when it comes to the payoffs. Give this some thought.
Do I have a “system” for betting on random rollers at craps? Of course. Every casino player and every other gambling writer recommend systems at random games --- those are just methods of betting. Some systems make sense (mine of course!) and some are foolish --- trend betting at random games for one or just playing by instinct at random games (which, when you think about it, are the exact same thing).
PETROGLYPH: Wouldn't tracking the table be of some good use here when trying to determine our opinions of whether or not a shooter might repeat a particular number? We've all been at a table and played with a group that didn't change and observed shooter's who either were able to roll consistently good or consistently bad repeatedly for the majority of their rolls. To believe in what we observed in the short term we would have to step outside the mathematical relevance to what is seen. What are you going to do, bet against what's happening on the felt? Remembering the past has no predictive value in craps? I don't think so.
FRANK: At a random game, you wish the past was an indication of the future. I wish so too. But it isn’t. Only probabilities can be projected, not actualities --- streaks will come and go but you just can’t pin them down. My advice is always to bet the low house edge bets. I do not see anything wrong with that advice for players who wish to play random casino games. I also think you have to be aware of the speed of games to get a handle on what your bets can expect to lose over time.
I know there are gambling writers and even dice control gurus that think you can track numbers at a random game and then structure your bets accordingly. As soon as they write this --- run!
My posts are my opinion only, and not to be misconstrued as expert or me as any kind of gambling authority.
If that is general advice about giving credit, ok then. Give credit where do. I haven't written and published books insinuating my expertise. Just a casual observation, but it seems a lot of stuff in your books are strikingly similar to stuff I've read in "Scarne" on dice. For instance, dice grips, toss and method of betting, repeating of odds etc. I'm sure you've given him some credit, but not at the bottom of a lot of pages.
The origin of recording throws I would think goes back at least to biblical times but if someone wants to claim credit for it, I'm not going to get all indignant about it.
I have no beef with your coining "five count", that I think belongs to you? In that paragraph where you respond to me that my way of thinking is wrong. I'm wrong about a lot of things. As long as you include the advice to your reader's that using it does not change the HE and they are just as likely to lose on the 6th toss as the fourth.
As far as too many player's making the same mistakes I do, yep. But I think your mixing semantics on this one. It's hard to convince many player's on a shooter's ten roll going out on the 11th that he wasn't closer on the 9th then sixth. HE didn't change, if you deny the closer metaphor then you are denying math.
Where you say betting a 6or8 is the same as picking a number out of a hat, how so? Again, denying the math. Aren't 6 & 8 more likely than a 4?
Your last sentence here about running from dice control gurus. That's to easy. Do you not consider any value in recording the standard deviations away from normal and averages returning to the mean? Or, the possibility that so many people have set hard six when they toss, the corner's of the 4's wear off first?
When you say trend betting and instinct are the same, are you recommending a player not use either? Don't you ever go with your gut? When you used to wager on the "arm", how can you explain that?
Thanks for responding
Quote:
FrankScoblete
Superrick, I have to disagree with you, although you are presenting your case in an interesting way.
What "is" happening at the table "is" nothing. What happened, happened, and is no indicator of what will happen, meaning will the streak we saw continue to overcome the house edge? If the game is random, the game is random. You can't get around that. Thinking that what you have seen will give you insight into what will happen is wrong.
Well Frank I must give you credit for writing in circles. I know that you write for all your followers, or better put the general public that need a set way of playing craps, and some of them have no knowledge of the game, so you have to write something that they can sink their teeth into, by selling them on something that has been around forever.
When you tell your readers that what is happening is no indicator of what will happen, that is a major false negative on your part! You are basing your whole game on the odds of making two points the 6 and 8. What you do not tell any of your readers is what to do if those two points are not being rolled; you leave them out in left field with no other options, but to go down in flames if those two points are not being rolled!
Quote:
FrankScoblete
At a random game, you just have to go with the lowest house edge bets. I go even further with my "system"; I recommend one bet (Pass or Come) after the 5-Count (which eliminates 57 percent of the random rolls) with odds and that's that. It then just becomes your one bet against the seven on the right side; or the seven against the number on the wrong side.
Here we go again, you have them playing your system, and you are telling everybody, that if you are not a DI, everything is a random game. Again we all should know that systems fail all the time! Then you go on to say that you should have a pass-line bet and a come to overcome the 7 out! You already used 5 rolls up and most of us here know that most shooters will not get pass 8 rolls of the dice before they 7 out.
Just because you are waiting 5 rolls of the dice it doesn’t do a thing for you, but to set you up for failure. You’re the one that is telling all of your readers what happened in the past has nothing to do with the future. Let’s say your random roller on the come-out roll, rolls a 3, 2, 11, 12 then sets the point of 10, you just got pass your 5 rolls and it’s time for you to make a bet. Now you are patting yourself on the back for being so smart that you followed Franks system. Next thing to do is place your one bet on the 6 or 8, you make the call that it’s going to be a 6, so you placed it for $12, you also placed the 10 for $15 Next part of you’re system is to put out a come bet, the shooter makes a 4 , you’re so smart that you take full odds on that come bet, and now with a big smile on you’re face you stand there waiting on the so-called random shooter to make any of you’re points.
On the 6 roll of the dice the shooter now rolls a 3 again, now your standing there salivating for the next roll to be anyone of your points, only to have the 7 out come!
Remember you’re the one that is saying what happened in the past has nothing to do with what is happening now! So you are basing your system on things that you have seen happen in the past, something that you say should not be done!
Any system is do to failure, systems do not allow any flexibility, and what you are doing is nothing but a system.
Quote:
FrankScoblete
Here is something that we should ask ourselves with shooters who have hit certain numbers in streaks: Are these shooters from this point forward capable of overcoming the house edge on the number into the future? If the answer is yes, sure bet the number. If the answer is no, which it will almost always be, then don't bet the number. If the answer is no, then you must simply go with the lowest house edge bet.
Well Frank if they are not hitting the points you have your chips on, you have to ask yourself what am I doing, I’m not getting paid on any of my bets, why is that! Could it be that they are hitting the points that you have no chips on for a reason?
You have to be able to read a table, some players do that by just listening and looking a the faces of the players on the table, if there is no noise and every player on the table looks like they just lost their best hunting dog, I would have to view that table as one that I would not want to be on, unless I was playing the dark side!
If I walked into a casino and didn’t care how many players were on a table and was only looking for a lucky roller I would head to the table that had full chip rails, and players that looked like they were having the time of their life. There are all kinds on indicators on a craps table that can guide you in the right direction when you are betting on anybody. But betting on a point just because it has a low house edge isn’t one of them, when you are seeing everybody that is on the table throwing one number, and the numbers that all the books say you should bet on because of the low house edge is not the number every player on the table is throwing. If it wasn't for trends, the house would always clean up, because we are all playing a negative game, betting on a low house edge does not change that!
Every time you lose one, two or three bets, because, you refuse to change what you are betting on, you dig a very deep hole, that if the table doesn’t change you won’t be able to dig yourself out of! For the average Joe Blow they will die a very indignant death, because they don’t have the bankroll to keep them in the game until the table changes back to what the math of the game says should be happening! That’s the problem with any betting system. I get some of the DI’s I know telling me about a new system, that they just bought, and after looking at it and telling them it’s going to fail, they run off to the casinos, to start losing their money by playing it. When they complain to the guy that they bought if off of that it’s not working, the seller always tell these guys that they are betting the system the wrong way!
What do you tell everybody about your 5 count when it’s not working? There is a big difference between theory and what is happening on the table. In theory your 6 and 8 is a good bet, only because of the math of the game, but if nobody is rolling them they can be the worst bets on the table!
Your 5 count and betting on those two points are are all based on something that you have seen in the past, and now your writing that you can't rely on other things that has happened in the past.
...
It is obvious you buy into the idea that what happened in the past at a random game has some meaning for what will happen in the immediate future. Please read my response to Petroglyph. I really don't have much more to say other than the six and eight thing is not my strongest recommendation for a random game --- come betting with odds after the 5-Count is. Usually one come bet too. I am not opposed to placing the six and/or eight, it is just not the strongest bet at a random craps game. I go into why in my previous post.
The 5-Count always works. The more you play, the more you realize that you are indeed missing 57 percent of the random rolls. (I guess that statement is too specific but you get the picture. You are saving money.) It's not magical; it's just statistics and if you normally play four hours then your expectation is to lose 57 percent less doing four hours with the 5-Count. I explained that in essence the 5-Count is just a mechanical method to reduce your exposure. I cited the mathematicians who calculated this. (The Captain's guess was 50 percent. His guess was based on watching the games as opposed to actually doing the math.)
It is nice to see players with a lot of chips in their racks because that could mean somethng special --- that they won some money. It doesn't really mean they will continue to win money or that you will jump in and win money. Not to put too fine a point on this, let me quote Jesus: "Let the dead past bury its dead." I would use that statement when it comes to playing a random game. Let what happened in the past stay in the past.
When (in theory) advantage play is (theoretically) working, you can still lose from an unlucky streak that looks like a trend. And possibly a trend that when you switch to adapt, the trend is over.
Advantage play, if it exists, is a long term effect from everything that I know.
Quote: AhighYou have to look at the long term. Betting trends is a short term approach.
When (in theory) advantage play is (theoretically) working, you can still lose from an unlucky streak that looks like a trend. And possibly a trend that when you switch to adapt, the trend is over.
Advantage play, if it exists, is a long term effect from everything that I know.
So aHigh, let me ask you one question, when you at a table and losing, is that long term, or short term?
...
This is my betting scheme on the pass-ODDS bet and this is my sole bet: $5 pass and $10 odds after each point is established, then wait for an inside number(5,6,8,9) and odds bet increases to $20. Then as any box number(4,5,6,8,9,10) is rolled then increase in $10 increments stopping at $50 odds. Simple and works well on good and choppy tables.
Quote: FrankScobleteI must have phrased this so poorly that no one was interested in it.
...
So I wanted to see what method players use with short-run results to make what they consider to be new strategies that go against long-run strategies.
Obviously, I failed miserably with this post.
Neither the short run, nor any individual prior result, is predictive of anything in craps under the assumption that the dice are fair and behave uniformly. But that's a different question than how people play as hands proceed.
I press. So do a lot of people. It's not because pressing is mathematically better (or worse, from a percentage standpoint), but to me, winning a larger amount on a long hand is more exciting than winning a smaller amount. I suspect I am not alone when I say that I consider it a successful dice session if someone at the table has a long roll where I make several hundred dollars. Based on how I play -- almost entirely line bets w/ odds -- I rarely take huge immediate losses. The larger losses on a given shooter never happen for me until after at least a handful of rolls have gone by.
But I wouldn't consider any of that to be "against long-run strategies," just the particular way I play to skew the outcome distribution the way I want it: I have fewer but larger wins, and more frequent but smaller (relative) losses. By not making prop bets or place bets, I keep my expected loss very low.
Here's a framework for how I've been playing lately:
1) I pick an amount I'm willing to lose per shooter. On the Strip, I normally use $60.
2) I buy in for $500, so that gives me 8 total shooter losses with no intervening wins, and I'd walk with $20 in my pocket. But that almost never happens.
3) I make a $10 pass bet, and if a point is established I back with $20 in odds and make another $10 come bet (which, if that's established, another $20 in odds). So barring a sequence of craps rolls, I can't lose more than $60 on any given shooter. PSO is a $20 loss. PPSO is a $60 loss. My expected loss is 28c. You could also delay the odds by one roll to avoid any loss on an immediate PSO.
4) Otherwise I have two numbers working, so when one of them hits, I plan to rebet it and between 1/2 and 2/3 of the profit. Suppose a 6 comes: I win $34 on a $30 bet so I'll plan on rebetting $50 total: I'll make another $10 come, press the odds on the other point by $10, and expect to put down $30 in odds if a point is established.
5) If I lose after that, my net is around -$45 or so. And if I win another point, since I'm close to maxed-out on odds by then I'll increase to three points, then four, etc. Obviously the goal is to get to bases loaded with max odds. It obviously takes longer on a 5x or 10x table than 3/4/5x. But it usually doesn't take more than three repeats to get to the point where you're guaranteed a net positive for the shooter even when the seven comes, and as above, to me hitting a bunch of numbers in a long hand, and pressing to higher amounts, is far more exciting than just standing there with a single line bet. Or no line bet at all, if you're just counting to five and biding your time.
At some point, you have to get over the cognitive dissonance that leads you to believe that the most mathematically-sound strategy is the right way to play, because in craps, the most mathematically-sound strategy is not to play at all. And even the five-count idea is predicated on the underlying assumption that if there is a dice influencer at the table, they will have meaningfully longer rolls than a random shooter. But that's not necessarily true, and in fact unless you're looking at absurdly-improbable claims of dice influencing (like an RSR of 8), the length of an average roll is not at all correlated with the expectation of the pass bet. In short, the five-count suffers from the same invalid underpinnings as the RSR statistic does. It might make sense intuitively, but human intuition regarding independent random events is almost never correct.
Quote: FrankScobleteThe late Captain was my mentor in craps long before I ever read any craps books. To me he was the man!
My condolences on your mentor Frank.
I was posting from my fallible memory.
When I asked about the "arm" I was trying to reference the woman player you've mentioned before with the non-typical throw.
Quote: superrickSo aHigh, let me ask you one question, when you at a table and losing, is that long term, or short term?
Maybe you could re-state the question? Playing for a single session is a portion of the long term, as is every individual bet that I take, win or loss.
Are you asking me to define long term for you? I'm not sure I understand where you are going.
John Maynard Keynes has a famous quote, "in the long run we are all dead."
Many people misinterpret this quote.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/05/07/keynes_in_the_long_run_we_are_all_dead.html
Maybe if you read about these things it will help. But the possibility to advantage play the game has nothing to do with 49 players getting lucky and thinking it's possible and 51 players getting unlucky and thinking it's not. Lucky players are more likely to believe that a betting system works than unlucky players. You know that right?
I think there is very much confusion among craps players about the macro view about the possibility of dice control.
Even if it is possible, the majority of people who attempt it will simply fail.
Period.
HUGE majority.
I have a quesiton for you, maybe a couple.
When your talking about the past, i fully understand the point your trying to make. If you are
an advantage craps player with a defined advantage you understand what your going to do
before you get to the table based on your advantage... i get that.
But very few players ever get to the point of having an advantage.I heard you say one time
that if a player shoots a 6, 6,6,6,8,6 and you (had to pick the next number) you admitted what
happened in the past should have no bearing, but if you had to pick, it would be a 6.
That is not maybe the choice you would make if you had more information, but since the past 6
rolls is all you had, you would make the best choice you could.
Now when it comes to your rolls or my rolls, what ever, if i were a place better and the first
3 rolls i had more 4,6,9 than any other number and my srr was high enough to over come the
advantage on the 4 & 9 i would bet 4,6,9 if i only placed 3 numbers.
Now i am a come better, so that would not affect me, but if that evening i threw many more 4,6,9's
i might place one of them as it came down with a come bet hit, where i would not replace another
number that i had not been hitting, atleast not until the roll extended.
I dont see that as being the same as a random game, if I use say the 3V as you do, the 4,6,9 are
all possible axis hits.
I am not 100% sure, but pretty sure you said one time with the 3v you only placed the 6 now and then, because
it was the number your were hittng that night.
I guess what i am saying is the results in the short run sometimes can dictate what you do in
the remainder of that short run ( one night)
gman
With all of Franks knowledge, he is letting any so-called random roller pick his numbers that he is going to bet, anytime he bets a come bet. What he is saying but not listening to by doing that, is he is going to bet on past history, and it couldn’t be any easier said!
So he must believe in what happened in the past, may very well happen in the future, but he won’t admit to it! He also thinks at that point that the roll is going to go on forever, he is already into the roll 6 rolls of the dice, my, my, my what a fine way to play craps!
Now of course Frank will tell every body that his betting is just based on the math of the game and he is getting the best odds he can for his money! To bad he is betting on a so-called random roller that every GTC instructor will tell that you should never bet on!
Gee,.. does everybody see how the worm turns?
Oh by the way Frank, I'm not picking on you just reading what you are now writing!
I guess we all says things, and in the heat of the battle we may do something a tad different.
I think you and i both agree and i would not be surprised if Frank agreed to a point. that the first
part of an evening can affect the last part of that evening.... or if you have 6 hands with the dice,
the first three could affect what you did with the last three, provided it is in context with your
general over-all game.
gman
On a good controlled shooter who has the ability to overcome Place bet odds I would place certain numbers. Take Daryl "No Field Five" as an example. You can guess that he has the ability to beat the five (overcoming a 4 percent edge) and if his SmartCraps results confirm that then if he is nailing the five this is totally different than a random roller shooting. A shooter such as Daryl is in a rare category. He is an elite shooter.
As for me, I use the results from my SmartCraps tests to structure my betting but I am aware that at times things can change somewhat at given tables with me. Interestingly enough, when my throw was analyzed (three times) my recommended set was the 3-V, a set I have been using for almost 25 years. I have good axis control and I tend to hit a few sixes even if my rolls might not be monsters.
As for me thinking a roll will go on forever at a random game, I pray it will but I know at some point that 16.67 percent chance the seven will show will get me. As for me betting on random rolls, yes, I usually will do so after the 5-Count. I'll place one Come bet usually with full odds. However, I will take bathroom breaks; phone breaks and the like to miss some shooters completely. Since I play at odd hours, I often have no random rollers at the table or just a few. That makes my playing life easier. I also tend to be at the tables with Jerry Stickman and maybe a few other elite shooters so my playing life is pretty good.
GTC teaches exactly what I just said above. Yes, it is best to never bet on random rollers. If you must do it as I recommend.
Quote: FrankScobleteGTC teaches exactly what I just said above. Yes, it is best to never bet on random rollers. If you must do it as I recommend.
Unless you know what he's planning and shooting for, a controlled shooter is a random shooter (to your knowledge), or even worse if he targets what you are betting against.
I watched Super Rick on Sunday set the dice at least three different ways. I change my set according to what bets I have placed. I wouldn't expect a single soul to understand what was more likely from what I was doing unless they simply bet exactly the same as me, or at least similarly.
I think the idea that you can expect anything in particular from what is thought to be a controlled shooter is just setting yourself up for wanting to blame someone else for a financial loss. Just bet so little it doesn't matter until you get the dice, then bet enough that it does while you are shooting.
I bet absolutely HUGE on 100% random shooters because I like to gamble. And I am prepared to lose when I do that. I think preparing yourself to lose and being ready to lose is better advise than going through mental gymnastics to think you have a better chance of not losing when betting on others.
You are GAMBLING when you bet on others. If you like to gamble, GO FOR IT!!! If you don't DO NOT BET!!!
However, when I am betting on my group of players (a very, very small number) whose ability I know then my betting would be different. If I knew the axis control level was high, I would bet one way; if the individual had a good SRR but the axis control was not strong enough, I'd bet another way.
Quote: FrankScobleteWhat predictive value does the short run have in a random game of craps?
How does one make a short run prediction?
If I say something about the next roll of the dice is it somehow divorced from all the zillions of rolls that have gone before?
Is that next spin of the roulette wheel part of a short term prediction just because I happen to approach the table or has it been spinning for a real long time before I even arrived in Vegas much less at that casino?
He says, "sure no problem." So I start watching on the same side of the table that he's shooting from standing at the table as a player would stand. The dealers (of course for anybody who knows) tell me "but you have to watch from the other side." So I scoot over to the other side. So I'm watching making minimal movements and all the things that I would want someone else to do while watching (not creating a distraction, leaning in, or any other things, just watching).
The poor guy has some of the worst luck ever. I think I watched him lose about $40,000 over the course of about 15 minutes. His betting practices were HORRIBLE!! From memory, he was betting $100 each on the all-tall-small. $300 three-way seven. $90 three way crap, $300 C&E, $300 pass on the comeout. After the comeout, he bet $100 each of the hardways, MAX ODDS, and $1,500 across excluding. Any hit was full pressure and he kept going with C&E but let the three-way seven fall after the comeout.
After a while, he came to my side of the table saying "I want to change everything it's not working." I stayed put and he kept shooting and losing. Finally he says to me, "sir?" I say, "yes" and as he looks downward I ask, "do you want me to leave?" He says very politely, "yes it's been nothing but sevens." He was polite enough not to finish the sentence, but I knew he was talking about since I showed up.
I know exactly how he feels, and I even expected him to perform horribly with me standing there. I did this at every single table after I won, and when I won my last roll, I laid every number after winning on the don't side before I set for the seven and sevened out to win while everyone else lost.
It got to the point where I could hear the dealers referring to me as the cooler in their subtle dealer-speak. So I said, "just call me Bernie." Before I left, the players were noticing it too, and one dealer, "Fernando" says I was just waiting for the table to warm up, so I rolled with that and said, "yeah, it's been so cold I am too scared to play." The truth was I wouldn't bet on anyone else's shot and I was just killing time since I don't visit this place often I wanted to get a feel for how they run that place.
After more sevens were attributed to me, I finally just said, "maybe it's just me, I'm going home."
--------------
Now this is a long story, but the point of it is that, and I think Frank would agree, even though it was so noticeable that by the time I left I was like the image of death himself approaching each table as the sevens started coming (it was literally like the Cooler movie .. literally), it's a bunch of BS that I had anything to do with anything. But if you want to bet the sevens while I approach the table to bring out the red because that's the short run prediction, give me a call and let's hook up!
Quote: MathExtremistNeither the short run, nor any individual prior result, is predictive of anything in craps under the assumption that the dice are fair and behave uniformly. But that's a different question than how people play as hands proceed.
I press. So do a lot of people. It's not because pressing is mathematically better (or worse, from a percentage standpoint), but to me, winning a larger amount on a long hand is more exciting than winning a smaller amount. I suspect I am not alone when I say that I consider it a successful dice session if someone at the table has a long roll where I make several hundred dollars. Based on how I play -- almost entirely line bets w/ odds -- I rarely take huge immediate losses. The larger losses on a given shooter never happen for me until after at least a handful of rolls have gone by.
But I wouldn't consider any of that to be "against long-run strategies," just the particular way I play to skew the outcome distribution the way I want it: I have fewer but larger wins, and more frequent but smaller (relative) losses. By not making prop bets or place bets, I keep my expected loss very low.
Here's a framework for how I've been playing lately:
1) I pick an amount I'm willing to lose per shooter. On the Strip, I normally use $60.
2) I buy in for $500, so that gives me 8 total shooter losses with no intervening wins, and I'd walk with $20 in my pocket. But that almost never happens.
3) I make a $10 pass bet, and if a point is established I back with $20 in odds and make another $10 come bet (which, if that's established, another $20 in odds). So barring a sequence of craps rolls, I can't lose more than $60 on any given shooter. PSO is a $20 loss. PPSO is a $60 loss. My expected loss is 28c. You could also delay the odds by one roll to avoid any loss on an immediate PSO.
4) Otherwise I have two numbers working, so when one of them hits, I plan to rebet it and between 1/2 and 2/3 of the profit. Suppose a 6 comes: I win $34 on a $30 bet so I'll plan on rebetting $50 total: I'll make another $10 come, press the odds on the other point by $10, and expect to put down $30 in odds if a point is established.
5) If I lose after that, my net is around -$45 or so. And if I win another point, since I'm close to maxed-out on odds by then I'll increase to three points, then four, etc. Obviously the goal is to get to bases loaded with max odds. It obviously takes longer on a 5x or 10x table than 3/4/5x. But it usually doesn't take more than three repeats to get to the point where you're guaranteed a net positive for the shooter even when the seven comes, and as above, to me hitting a bunch of numbers in a long hand, and pressing to higher amounts, is far more exciting than just standing there with a single line bet. Or no line bet at all, if you're just counting to five and biding your time.
At some point, you have to get over the cognitive dissonance that leads you to believe that the most mathematically-sound strategy is the right way to play, because in craps, the most mathematically-sound strategy is not to play at all. And even the five-count idea is predicated on the underlying assumption that if there is a dice influencer at the table, they will have meaningfully longer rolls than a random shooter. But that's not necessarily true, and in fact unless you're looking at absurdly-improbable claims of dice influencing (like an RSR of 8), the length of an average roll is not at all correlated with the expectation of the pass bet. In short, the five-count suffers from the same invalid underpinnings as the RSR statistic does. It might make sense intuitively, but human intuition regarding independent random events is almost never correct.
Read your post and am trying your system. However, under the Wizard's new craps game I cannot put down odds unless I do another pass line bet after winning the first point. Am I doing something wrong?
Ofcourse the length is directly connected to the amount of money you win.
If you buy in for $500 and the pit boss said friendlydice you have an option on
this table, the average roll tonight can be 6 rolls or 8 rolls, which would you
take.
Even if the shooter was a random shooter, i would take 6 over 8 anyday of the
week and twice on sunday.
I make no pass line bet and one come bet on all other players and i dont extend
that to more than one until i have made some money. I have a better chance of
hitting that bet on 8 rolls .
I was looking at my hands for my last casino visit. I had 8 hands, 3 nice hands
and 5 average ones. throw numbers 7 & 8 were 9,8 then 10,10 and the last hand
they were 11,4 .
the first hand i made $30 on those rolls and the 9 became a pass line number and i hit that
for $35
the second hand i made $50
the third hand i did not make anything on the 11 or 4.
So two out of three hands that extended from 6-8 rolls i made money.
I very very happy to have an SRR of 8 or more.
dicesetter
Quote: AhighThis is probably not related at all, but I walked up to a $500 minimum table at Bellagio yesterday to a guy who was gambling big. Lots of people just gawk wondering WTF, but I wanted to be polite, and I asked the guy, "no is okay, but do you mind if I watch?"
He says, "sure no problem." So I start watching on the same side of the table that he's shooting from standing at the table as a player would stand. The dealers (of course for anybody who knows) tell me "but you have to watch from the other side." So I scoot over to the other side. So I'm watching making minimal movements and all the things that I would want someone else to do while watching (not creating a distraction, leaning in, or any other things, just watching).
The poor guy has some of the worst luck ever. I think I watched him lose about $40,000 over the course of about 15 minutes. His betting practices were HORRIBLE!! From memory, he was betting $100 each on the all-tall-small. $300 three-way seven. $90 three way crap, $300 C&E, $300 pass on the comeout. After the comeout, he bet $100 each of the hardways, MAX ODDS, and $1,500 across excluding. Any hit was full pressure and he kept going with C&E but let the three-way seven fall after the comeout.
After a while, he came to my side of the table saying "I want to change everything it's not working." I stayed put and he kept shooting and losing. Finally he says to me, "sir?" I say, "yes" and as he looks downward I ask, "do you want me to leave?" He says very politely, "yes it's been nothing but sevens." He was polite enough not to finish the sentence, but I knew he was talking about since I showed up.
I know exactly how he feels, and I even expected him to perform horribly with me standing there. I did this at every single table after I won, and when I won my last roll, I laid every number after winning on the don't side before I set for the seven and sevened out to win while everyone else lost.
It got to the point where I could hear the dealers referring to me as the cooler in their subtle dealer-speak. So I said, "just call me Bernie." Before I left, the players were noticing it too, and one dealer, "Fernando" says I was just waiting for the table to warm up, so I rolled with that and said, "yeah, it's been so cold I am too scared to play." The truth was I wouldn't bet on anyone else's shot and I was just killing time since I don't visit this place often I wanted to get a feel for how they run that place.
After more sevens were attributed to me, I finally just said, "maybe it's just me, I'm going home."
--------------
Now this is a long story, but the point of it is that, and I think Frank would agree, even though it was so noticeable that by the time I left I was like the image of death himself approaching each table as the sevens started coming (it was literally like the Cooler movie .. literally), it's a bunch of BS that I had anything to do with anything. But if you want to bet the sevens while I approach the table to bring out the red because that's the short run prediction, give me a call and let's hook up!
I am calling bullshit on this one. How was it a $500 minimum table if he had a bet of $300 on the pass line? How was it a $500 minimum table if he bet $1500 across? That would make it a $300 minimum table. Now,don't get me wrong Ahigh I like your posts and I like you so I pick on you too. But don't you think before you type?
Quote: KB1I am calling bullshit on this one. How was it a $500 minimum table if he had a bet of $300 on the pass line? How was it a $500 minimum table if he bet $1500 across? That would make it a $300 minimum table. Now,don't get me wrong Ahigh I like your posts and I like you so I pick on you too. But don't you think before you type?
They raised the limit after the player started I assume. I thought about this before I posted, and it's ABSOLUTELY VERY COMMON that limits are raised for someone who is betting big enough that they don't want anyone else at the table to be playing.
