EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 23rd, 2013 at 4:31:58 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I am sure that already the "advantage players" who have their "positive expectation games" are grinding their teeth and saying anyone preaching a win goal has no idea about what they are talking about.



Depends on the AP. In BJ you have such a thin edge
you're compelled to play as many hands as possible
or the variance will eat your lunch. Other AP's can
set a goal. Yes, there are other AP's besides BJ and
VP.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 23rd, 2013 at 6:01:01 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RogerKint
RogerKint
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March 23rd, 2013 at 6:21:25 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This discussion is about to blow up. I am sure that already the "advantage players" who have their "positive expectation games" are grinding their teeth and saying anyone preaching a win goal has no idea about what they are talking about.



Why would an AP care if people want to donate money to the house?

If occasional small wins help someone feel better about having lifetime losses, so be it.
100% risk of ruin
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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March 23rd, 2013 at 9:18:46 PM permalink
Quote: Sabretom2

There was a guy om FOXNEWS this morning, Claims to have hit the lottery 7 times. Said, "Luck has nothing to do with it". To understand the system, all you need to do is buy his book.

I saw a guy wearing a t-shirt that said that in a casino the other day. I wanted to ask him where he got it.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 24th, 2013 at 2:08:30 PM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Why would an AP care if people want to donate money to the house?

If occasional small wins help someone feel better about having lifetime losses, so be it.



I don't understand this. Are you saying that someone who has small wins is auomatically a lifetime loser? What am I missing? Thanks.
RogerKint
RogerKint
Joined: Dec 5, 2011
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:30:01 PM permalink
You're not missing anything. I'm sorry for interrupting.
100% risk of ruin
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:50:57 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DeMango
DeMango
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March 24th, 2013 at 8:53:41 PM permalink
Back to back, best two posts of the day! Thanks.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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March 24th, 2013 at 10:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

Once again with gambler fallacy... How does it all come back to that???
Are the "wins" not independent of each other? Where's the fallacy?



I think the point is that leaving the casino on one day, then coming back some later date and playing again, is no different mathematically from just sticking around. Between the two sessions, your results will be exactly like one longer session, and so on.

You can quit while you're ahead, sure - but the problem is that sooner or later, you just won't get ahead, and if you're determined to, what'll happen is you'll lose all your money. (And of course, you won't know which session that is until it's over - it's entirely possible you could go from one unit above your stoploss to your goal, or from one unit short of your goal to your stoploss.) Because of that eventuality, the house edge is exactly the same.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 25th, 2013 at 12:26:12 AM permalink
Mathematically that's correct... if you're a professional gambler. But I'm a recreational gambler, so I truly value leaving with a win and enjoying it.

I played a little video poker tonight and I'm sick about what I did.

I started with $1500... playing 8/5 Aces and Faces. Lost the first $500 pretty quickly, but with the second $500 on the machine I hit a few quads: 6s then 8s, then 8s again, then 9s twice. (Not in rapid order, of course.) But before I knew it the machine was spitting out tickets because I had reached the $1200 meter maximum. At my highest point I had about $2800. I should have gone home... but I thought about "the math" and reasoned "it makes no sense to go home... the royal could just as easily happen on the next play."

Except it didnt. And I lost all the profit... and then my original $1500 too.

And it's happened like that more times than I can count... which is why I started to use win goals. And damn't Im sorry I didn't stick to my win goals tonight.

Screw the math. (LOL)

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