Hmm...Double 9/10/11 if you will win sounds pretty good, it's close for 9 and right for 10 and 11 (as the Wiz's simple strategy uses).
I have a problem with split if both hands will win - it's going to get you to split 10's pretty often.
You didn't do anything about soft hands - what would your strategy be for them?
Algle, I'm pretty sure if one-rule blackjack were possible the Wizard would have posted it by now.
"Can one rule improve on the dealer's rules?"
Without knowing the answer, I think the combined power of "assume tens" + "never bust first" is greater than "draw to 17".
(near bottom of page)
Never bust: For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would never hit a hard 12 or more. All other decisions were according to correct basic strategy. This "never bust" strategy results in a house edge of 3.91%.
Mimic the dealer: For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would always hit 16 or less and stand on 17 or more, including a soft 17. The player never doubled or split, since the dealer is not allowed to do so. This "mimic the dealer" strategy results in a house edge of 5.48%.
When friends come to Vegas, they often want to play blackjack, but won't take the time to learn basic strategy. After I finally get them to understand the concept (sometimes a task in itself!), I used to start them off with the simplified strategy stated here:
HOWEVER, my friends keep getting hung up on the soft 18 exception. Also, it is a bit odd to hit A7 vs a dealer 7, and the other ploppies might give you dirty looks. So I ran a sim with a slightly simpler rule for Soft 18: Always stand. Result:0.73%. Am I missing something here? If not I am going to start teaching them this slightly simpler version:)