lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:25:18 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid

all it takes is a couple nasty shoes to swallow and devour bank rolls or as others like to call it 15-25 max bets destroyed


no proficient AP is going to be knocked out of the game by losing 15-25 max bets. that's just the nature of the beast.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
sidthesquid
sidthesquid
Joined: Aug 6, 2016
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:27:43 PM permalink
only reason it angers me and yes it does is that you spew lies and so does many card counting authors

they do not give the truth of everything of card counting

ofcourse card counting works, and ofcourse casinos back people off however casinos would lose business if they stopped everything in other words they would lose money if someone like me tries these counting systems cause they know i am more likely to go belly up before i see my advantage , now if they have table minium being low as 2$ or even 5$ maybe just maybe but you not find stand 17 and surrender in that min-max range they want atleast 15$ to 25$ and that calls for 12 max bets and that calls for 40k easy if you do not have access to that type of cash then save your money

only works for those have unlimited money unlimited time and dont care if backed off, if your average american w/ average job you will fail badly at the tables believing you are operating always with a 1 0.5 to 2% house egde stabworld and zenking are proof enough
sidthesquid
sidthesquid
Joined: Aug 6, 2016
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:29:19 PM permalink
enjoy the slow downard spiral grind
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:34:17 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid

only works for those have unlimited money unlimited time and dont care if backed off, if your average american w/ average job you will fail badly at the tables believing you are operating always with a 1 0.5 to 2% house egde stabworld and zenking are proof enough

Oh boy. So wrong, but for one facet: If a card counter pitches his small bankroll against the massive bankroll of a casino, even if he only wongs in when he has a 5% advantage*, he is mathematically almost certain to be totally wiped out if he over-bets his bankroll. Kelly betting ( or half kelly ) will almost totally mitigate that risk. So, if you consider 200x your max stake to be unlimited bankroll, then yes, you need unlimited bankroll or you are indeed screwed.
* and even with great counting skills and a great game it will be mind-crushingly boring waiting for that positive edge to appear. What are you doing then? Min bet playing and leaking chips slowly into a losing game?
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:36:18 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid

enjoy the slow downard spiral grind



Sid,

Do you have spell-check?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:37:05 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid



if your average american w/ average job you will fail badly at the tables

it angers me and yes it does is that you spew lies




I would pretty much agree with the first line. I would consider most people who succeed at this endeavor to be above average.


I might suggest that you be cautious about who you call a liar. Again, I don't really care. But others may.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
sidthesquid
sidthesquid
Joined: Aug 6, 2016
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October 27th, 2017 at 12:40:32 PM permalink
so bank roll over advantage

40k or 80k and then you get your buckets of cash? and i am already combating a -0.5% house edge when the count is poor

hear that everyone? you need 80 grand to try this and unlimited to or end up on your @ss like zenking/stabworld
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 27th, 2017 at 1:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid

so bank roll over advantage

40k or 80k and then you get your buckets of cash? and i am already combating a -0.5% house edge when the count is poor

hear that everyone? you need 80 grand to try this and unlimited to or end up on your @ss like zenking/stabworld

Well without doing the maths for your specific game that is indeed about the measure of it. Except, you don't get buckets of cash, you get a few hundred dollars per month and sometimes you get a few thousand and some months you lose a few tens of thousands.

You need a fairly high average bet to make the average hourly profit to be worthwhile. Let's indeed do the maths, very rough and ready...

You want to earn $10 per hour (on average) while spending a 10 hour day in a casino where you can wong in or out.

Immediately you discover that you are wonged out at least 8 hands out of every 10, because decent advantage of say 1% is so rare.

8/10 of your time is spent wonged out or relentlessly losing min bets into the edge. So lets say you sit drinking free coffee while wonged out for that 80% of your working day. Your working day is 20% efficient. So when you are actually playing, you need to make $50 per hour, or 83 cents per minute. or, at two hands a minute, call it 40cents per hand.

Lets say you are at that sweet 1% edge. 40c is that 1%
So average wager must be $40
Max wager will obviously be a few times that. Let's say max wager is $200.
Kelly in its most rudimentary terms suggests Bankroll x advantage = max bet ( old school, ignoring SD of the game of about 1.14)
So, 200=Bankroll x 1%
Bankroll= $200/0.01 = $20.000
More, of course if you want to make more than $100 per day or if you need to lose money in bad counts, just to keep a seat.

And, of course, you will have days, weeks, months where you lose relentlessly thousands a day. Zenking suffered that, I can't recall how stabworld did, but I understand he baulked at the massive swings and bowed out of the lifestyle.

Of course, you might only play when you have a 2% advantage, so maybe a $10,000 bankroll would be ample. but you'd be playing less hands per day etc etc..

You thought it was easy, and now you think it's impossible. Neither is true.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Oct 27, 2017
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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October 27th, 2017 at 1:19:21 PM permalink
Quote: sidthesquid

im not good at it? wtf does that even mean? CVBJ 3.0 shows me playing flawlessly and down 5,000 in under 3days

all it takes is a couple nasty shoes to swallow and devour bank rolls or as others like to call it 15-25 max bets destroyed



If you didn't have the bankroll to play at the level you did, then You're not good at it. There's more to it than just counting positive and negative shoes.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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October 27th, 2017 at 1:26:03 PM permalink
using the formula for RoR or Risk of Ruin a player can determine exactly the % chance he will go bankrupt after plugging in his total Bankroll, his minimum and maximum bet and his % edge. I'm a little rusty with these calculations. It's been years. I'm sure Romes knows the formula right off the top of his head. of course, this assumes play without error.

interestingly, (to me anyway), at one time I thought Risk of Ruin was the percentage chance that you would go bankrupt before doubling your bankroll. I later found out that is incorrect. Risk of Ruin means the % chance that you will EVER go bankrupt.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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