charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2511
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:43:14 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Possibly a more interesting question is which hand is the closest EV between correct choice and second best choice?

I think on infinite deck analysis {I use probability of winning, so to get EV use 2x-1.}
(i) 16v10 (Hit vs Stand) .212388 .212109 [UK rules] [The strategy based on 6 decks depends on the cards held].
(ii) A4 v 4 (Double vs Hit) .529213 .529643 [The strategy based on 6 decks is to Double, but infinite isn't].
(iii) 12 v 4 (Stand vs Hit) .394468 .393332 [The strategy based on 6 decks is to hit 10 2 and stand others (split 6-6)].

I suspect that if the actual cards were taken into consideration various 16's vs 10 would be very close.
I know that 10 2 vs 4, 10 3 vs 2, 10 2 A vs 2 change because of the card combinations (i.e. already having a 10 thus reducing your chances of busting).

This is not an academic question and is quite useful. Players should consider close plays and either always pick the same way or use their judgement as to which of the two options to make - in this way rather than just playing in automatic "correct strategy" mode, you actually have an intellectual choice! I will nearly always hit the 10 2 and 10 3 above, and occasionally 12 vs 6 if I haven't seen many Aces (s17).
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3321
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:01:38 AM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

Might be doubling a 20 against an 8.

WINNER
BigJer
Joined: Sep 16, 2012
• Posts: 306
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:06:20 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

WINNER

BTW one time - back in the 80s - I was getting very tired at a casino and got a hard 20. I inadvertently signaled for another card and got an ace ......... After that I went straight to bed.
The Terror of Casinos.
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:37:19 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

WINNER

Yes! Figured it was doubling 20 but against 5 and 6 were taken. Then I remembered a random piece of trivia that your 20 has the best chance against an 8, not 5 or 6.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
• Posts: 6506
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:46:28 AM permalink
Throwing a slant play over the middle from the 1-yard line rather than running BEAST MODE to win the Super Bowl…oh wait…you said blackjack.
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:55:03 AM permalink

Throwing a slant play over the middle from the 1-yard line rather than running BEAST MODE to win the Super Bowl…oh wait…you said blackjack.

Damn it, came here just to say that :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
BigJer
Joined: Sep 16, 2012
• Posts: 306
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:55:25 AM permalink

Throwing a slant play over the middle from the 1-yard line rather than running BEAST MODE to win the Super Bowl…oh wait…you said blackjack.

That's the idea!!!
The Terror of Casinos.
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
• Posts: 6506
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:57:11 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Damn it, came here just to say that :)

Great minds think alike lol scary
ChesterDog

Joined: Jul 26, 2010
• Posts: 997
February 2nd, 2015 at 11:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: HowMany

I saw a guy take "even money" after the dealer checked her hole card. She didn't have blackjack!

He insisted on taking even money anyway saying "It's the best bet in a casino."

Floor was called, and explained he will receive 3:2 payout. He said "No. I want even money."

If I had a gun, I would have shot him.

I saw a man take "even money" on a \$500 Spanish 21 bet. He was obnoxious and insistent, and his request was granted.
Venthus
Joined: Dec 10, 2012