AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 2nd, 2015 at 4:51:33 AM permalink
doubling 20 V A

*Standing on AA V6?

Standing on 11 Vs 6? instead of doubling?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Kellynbnf
Kellynbnf
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February 2nd, 2015 at 4:59:38 AM permalink
Quote: Numpkin

Ok so the worst SINGLE play would be to get the most money out at a time, while busting yourself. By this logic doubling a hard 20 is definitely the single play that gets most money on the table while busting yourself. Now the question is against what dealer card? Well in case you caught an Ace with your double and the dealer has to make a 21 to tie it, so the dealer card should be the card that most likely to make a 21. IIRC, that card (in a S17 game) would be a 10.

TLDR: double hard 20 vs dealer 10



Actually it's a 2 (in fact 10 is the upcard where the dealer is the LEAST likely to make a 21, since it's the only upcard where the dealer would have to draw at least two non-ten cards, and a 2 provides the most outlets for the dealer to do so). Now the dealer is more likely to reach 20 with a 10 up, but not 21.

ETA: Link to the Wizard's appendix showing this.
1BB
1BB
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February 2nd, 2015 at 5:07:18 AM permalink
Does the player get the double returned if the dealer has blackjack? Even if the player broke while doubling a hard 20? :-)
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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February 2nd, 2015 at 5:10:29 AM permalink
Splitting tens then resplit if you can and then double down after splitting should get the most money on the table. Not sure if this is the type of play you are looking for.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Dieter
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Dieter
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February 2nd, 2015 at 5:34:55 AM permalink
To be the worst play decision, it has to simultaneously increase the amount of money at risk and increase the chances of losing.

That would make it a double.

I'm pretty sure the worst is doubling hard 20 vs dealer 5.

There's a 1/13 chance of not busting, while standing would have an extremely high chance of a win. You're turning your position from "there's only 1 way to lose" to "there's only 1 way to win", and you're doing it by putting even more money at risk.



Sidenote: I really don't understand the point of the question. I'm seeing lots of "nope, that's wrongs", and not a lot of discussion about why.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 2nd, 2015 at 5:41:11 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

To be the worst play decision, it has to simultaneously increase the amount of money at risk and increase the chances of losing.

That's not always the case in every game. Perhaps in BJ that might be and that's what we are talking about.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
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February 2nd, 2015 at 6:05:52 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

They don't let you hit hard 21 in blackjack. Just to be clear I will edit my post to include this.



Of course you can hit a hard 21 in blackjack. As long as the player has not busted (and hasn't restricted his hand from being hit, ie: doubled down or split Aces), he is permitted to hit.

Even though your post is referring to 6D games, you CAN hit a hard 21 in hand-held games.


I'd think doubling 20v7, 20v8, or 20v9 has got to be pretty damn high on the "this play absolutely sucks" list. With a 20v8, you're in damn good shape, since a 9,T,J,Q,K,A as the HC is an automatic winner.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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February 2nd, 2015 at 6:08:01 AM permalink
I get that the worst playing is doubling 20 vs dealer 8. The reason for this is you are sacrificing the better chances of winning with your 20 and this is more important than the differences between the 21's.
(see http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/)
Player's Expected Return by Standing
Player's
Hand Dealer's Up Card
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ace
20 0.639987 0.650272 0.661050 0.670360 0.703959 0.773227 0.791815 0.758357 0.554538 0.655470
21 0.882007 0.885300 0.888767 0.891754 0.902837 0.925926 0.930605 0.939176 0.962624 0.922194
btw the worst (reasonable play under old UK rules) was splitting 6's vs A (you could only double 9-11 and not split 4's 5's nor 10's).
HowMany
HowMany
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February 2nd, 2015 at 6:14:58 AM permalink
I saw a guy take "even money" after the dealer checked her hole card. She didn't have blackjack!

He insisted on taking even money anyway saying "It's the best bet in a casino."

Floor was called, and explained he will receive 3:2 payout. He said "No. I want even money."

If I had a gun, I would have shot him.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 2nd, 2015 at 8:33:36 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Without looking it up, what do you think is the single-worst decision possible in blackjack given the following: American rules, 6 decks, stand 17, no surrender, DAS, no counting. (and no hitting/doubling any 21s)

Give the hand and the decision.



You need more qualifiers on your choices.

Obviously with a pair of 10's the best decision is to STAND and the worse decision is to DOUBLE. Given the Dealer up card , in order here is the progression from AWFUL to REALLY BAD. This is the correct answer to your question as posed.

DEALER
8
7
9
6
5
A
4
3
2
10

Quote: AxelWolf

doubling 20 V A


That is actually the sixth worst play.

I think you want to restrict the decision between the best choice and the second best choice and also you want to rule out no-brainers like player 10,9 against a dealer 7. The obvious answer is STAND, with either HIT or DOUBLE as terrible choices.

Possibly a more interesting question is:
Player 10,2 against a dealer 4

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