1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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April 8th, 2014 at 4:44:07 AM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

I'm not sure I understand. I'm a counter, so I would assume that my EV is better than the Optimal Result which uses basic strategy. The deeper the deal the greater my advantage, on average.



The term cut card effect refers to whether the cards are shuffled after every hand or are dealt down to a cut card. Penetration is where the cut card is placed. That is the effect of the cut card as distinguished from the cut card effect. The optimal results are based on shuffling after every hand. These results also assume perfect basic strategy. No dealer is going to shuffle after every hand so I suspect that this research was done for CSMs.

The basic strategy player, we're not talking about counters, has an advantage when every hand is the first hand of a fresh shoe. This is an advantage over a cut card, not an advantage over the house. The difference is closest with eight decks and widens when less decks are in use. The realistic and optimal numbers have nothing to do with the advantage of a card counter except as one of many tools to evaluate a game. The advantage of the optimal result is negated by the 20% or more hands per hour dealt from CSMs.

Whichever house edge the perfect basic strategy player plays against is the amount he will lose over time. People will cringe when they read this but if anyone is a recreational player and wants to play a CSM go ahead and do so. All you have to do is find a way to play less hands per hour and that is very easily accomplished.

Now that I've committed blasphemy in the eyes of my fellow counters, I'll say that CSMs are here to stay and nothing on a message board is going to affect that. Boycott them if you like but that ship has sailed.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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April 8th, 2014 at 5:02:35 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 8th, 2014 at 10:02:38 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

The term cut card effect refers to whether the cards are shuffled after every hand or are dealt down to a cut card. Penetration is where the cut card is placed. That is the effect of the cut card as distinguished from the cut card effect. The optimal results are based on shuffling after every hand. These results also assume perfect basic strategy. No dealer is going to shuffle after every hand so I suspect that this research was done for CSMs.



It does not have to be shuffled after every hand. Any game where a fixed number of rounds are dealt between shuffles (ie, shuffle point based on number of hands rather than depth of penetration) does not suffer from the cut card effect.

So, for example, a single-deck game where you get 4 rounds between shuffles has the same house edge (to the basic strategy player) as a single-deck game where the dealer shuffles after every round, but if the dealer uses a cut card to determine when to shuffle, the cut card effect increases the house edge.

The reason for this is that using depth to determine when to shuffle is a form of preferential shuffle. When high cards come out, the count goes down. However, since high cards came out, fewer cards were used in the playing of the hands, so more hands are dealt before the shuffle-point is reached. On the other hand, if low cards come out, the count goes up, but many cards are used in the playing of the hand, so the shuffle-point is reached after fewer hands. As a result, you end up playing more hands with negative counts than you play with positive counts -- your positive counts get shuffled away because the cut card is reached after fewer hands.

Obviously, if the dealer is dealing a fixed number of rounds between shuffles, this is not an issue.
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
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April 9th, 2014 at 4:47:41 AM permalink
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Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
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April 9th, 2014 at 4:57:53 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

50% pen? That is crap. There are better DD games with deeper penetration.

I believe that the cut card effect is stronger (worse for the player) with shallower penetration (but this is just from logical reasoning, not from simulations, so I may have made an error). I have no idea what penetration the Wizard uses when calculating his "realistic" results.

Once we are talking about hundredths of a percent, though, you have to ask yourself how precise you really need to be. A few hundredths of a percent edge will not show up in 10s of millions of hands.



The difference between -.40 and. -.32 equals 8 cents per $100 wager. That's $ 8 an hour at 100 hands being dealt per hour. That's pretty significant.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 9th, 2014 at 6:27:57 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

As I said, cut card effect. The effect is significant at double deck.

I know penetration is substantial, but what if you can spread 1 to 300 or more with bad penetration all day no heat? I have asked this before on a specific number of decks and penetration( I forget now). The only thing I got was penetration is the holy grail anything less forget about it. I get that if the penetration only was 1 deck on 6 decks then bet spread may be worthless. At what point would you give up some penetration for incredible bet spread opportunities?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 9th, 2014 at 11:10:44 AM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

The difference between -.40 and. -.32 equals 8 cents per $100 wager. That's $ 8 an hour at 100 hands being dealt per hour. That's pretty significant.



Take a look at this: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/rainsong/

Here, the Wizard debunked a betting system with a simulation. The game had an edge of 0.26%. When they stopped the simulation after 10 million hands, the simulation was down 0.2933%. So, after 10 million hands, the simulation was 0.0333% worse than expectation.

How many hands do you think that you will play in your lifetime? I think that you are underestimating how long it takes for your results to converge to expectation.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 9th, 2014 at 11:15:59 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I know penetration is substantial, but what if you can spread 1 to 300 or more with bad penetration all day no heat? I have asked this before on a specific number of decks and penetration( I forget now). The only thing I got was penetration is the holy grail anything less forget about it. I get that if the penetration only was 1 deck on 6 decks then bet spread may be worthless. At what point would you give up some penetration for incredible bet spread opportunities?



Note that this has nothing to do with the cut card effect.

It's not worthless, with the right conditions. But you will never get these conditions in a casino.

PM me. I think I know what you are talking about.

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