rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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January 18th, 2015 at 9:17:04 AM permalink
Dieter
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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January 18th, 2015 at 10:24:48 AM permalink


Almost as good as a dealt royal...
May the cards fall in your favor.
PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
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January 18th, 2015 at 10:42:16 AM permalink
RS, very nice hit. Nothing like having the quads and getting the kicker on the draw! And on the top line to boot!
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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January 18th, 2015 at 10:26:26 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter


Almost as good as a dealt royal...



:(

And nice hit, rs!
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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January 18th, 2015 at 10:40:58 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

:(

And nice hit, rs!

I got dealt AKQJ In spades the other day.... nothing on the draw. 1 away from dealt Sequential. .50 I believe.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
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March 1st, 2015 at 8:25:49 AM permalink
imagine my disappointment. win of $2400 (41.3% chance) or $5600 (42.5% chance) or $8800 (14.6% chance) or $12000 (1.7% chance)

Edited percentages.. thanks to Shadowless for pointing out my error.

Shadowless
Shadowless
Joined: Mar 3, 2015
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March 9th, 2015 at 10:32:10 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

imagine my disappointment. win of $2400 (41.3% chance) or $5600 (42.5% chance) or $8800 (14.6% chance) or $12000 (1.7% chance)

Edited percentages.. thanks to Shadowless for pointing out my error.



Here's how I got them, but I'm not 100% sure if it's correct. It adds up, though.
The 4 held deuces are cards 49, 50, 51, and 52.
That leaves 48 remaining, and there are four of each As, 3s, and 4s, for a total of 12 outs 12/48 to hit the low kicker (25%).
That means the chance of hitting a regular 4 deuces is 75%.

75%^3 = 42.1875%
(75%^2 * 25%) * 3 = 42.1875%
(75% * 25%^2) * 3 = 14.0625% (we multiply by three because it can end up in any one of the three games.)
25%^3 = 1.5625%

The only part that troubles me and seems incorrect is that the percentage of getting 3x four deuces without low kicker is the same as 2x four deuces no kicker plus 1x four deuces A/3/4 kicker.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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March 9th, 2015 at 10:48:22 PM permalink
Your method is correct.

It's coincidental 0 and 1 successes are equal. There are 3 positions for placing one success and the individual success probability (.25) is exactly 3 times less than the fail probability (.75). So the factors cancel to match the zero success case.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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March 10th, 2015 at 3:25:05 AM permalink
The other day I was playing a little bit of VP, and was thinking to myself, "Of all the dealt SF's I've ever gotten, it seems like most have been 9TJQK". I think I had gotten 3 of those, and one that was lower (like 23456 or 34567). And sure enough, a few minutes later, I get dealt 9TJQK suited. Of course, I held the SF and didn't go for the RF.

But initially, I was like, "Ah f***, that was so close to a dealt royal!" but then I thought about it for a few minutes, and realized, if I get a dealt royal, I'd much rather it be when I'm playing a larger amount, like $25 or $50 per spin....instead of a measly $1.25 per spin.

Not that I'd ever turn down a dealt RF on a $1.25/spin game, but, ya know what I mean.



I been playing some on videopoker.com, just for fun, trying out new games and whatnot. I was playing Multi-Strike. Remember, just playing for fun. So sometimes, if I'd get something like 3 to a royal with a high pair, I'd say screw it, Imma go for the royal. Well, sure enough, I get to the top line on MS (8x?), and get 3 to a royal and a high pair. Natural instinct kicked in and I held the high pair. The next 2 cards I was dealt were the Jack and Ten of hearts, that would'a connected for the royal. But hey, 1) I did the correct play by holding the high pair and 2) It was for fake money. Would'a been cool to get 8x on a RF on MS, though. But whatever. No harm no foul.
# Свободный Натан
Dieter
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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March 10th, 2015 at 7:01:57 AM permalink
Quote: RS

It was for fake money. Would'a been cool to get 8x on a RF on MS, though. But whatever. No harm no foul.



It's OK, you could have pretended that the machine locked up and waited for anyone at all to walk by before proceeding to not have the documents for your fake W2G... ;)
May the cards fall in your favor.

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