guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 707
March 21st, 2012 at 3:22:09 PM permalink
Nice. Most use that formula.
And precision is not a factor here but can be somewhere.

Now with easy to use exact recursion formulas we can get exact results. Love fast computers.

Just saying...
The approximation formula's error rate seems to be a constant with it's probability.

From using Exact calculations (and rounding up)
(I used 53.5% lose rate from DorothyGale sim results)
hands/ avg length of longest run
250 / 8.03
500 / 9.14
1000 / 10.24
2500 / 11.71
5000 /12.81
10,000 /13.92
(I have also verified these values with simulations. N=250 ALLRun = 8.0326)

approximation formula
8.83 /250
9.94 /500
11.04 /1000
12.51 /2500
13.62 /5000
14.73 /10000

Enjoy!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
March 21st, 2012 at 7:45:21 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
CrapsForever
CrapsForever
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 517
March 21st, 2012 at 8:15:36 PM permalink
The most hands that I have lost in a row in Blackjack is 20 hands which occurred on 4 seperate occasions in one month.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!

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