Obvious, but haven't seen this posted yet

I've lurked and scrolled through this forum on betting systems, and I've also gambled 10 plus years from a young age profusely in all types of games and sports, mostly on games with cards where you have some influence on whats going on, to video games, and also random ducking games like baccarat and roulette, dice ect. I barely play slots because just because

Anyway one time I was reading a book on some brilliant physicist, scientist type Richard Fenyman and he was talking with some famous gambler, Nick th Greek probably maybe you've heard of him, he said a method he used to play baccarat was to watch and wait for players that have superstitions and preconceived notions about patterns of the game, and then go against them, I'm not sure of the quantum mechanics, details involved all i know is that this world is made of energy, particles ect down to whatever sub atomic level, it's all waves, what's the point of all this, well these particles at particular moments are "luckier" or "unluckier" than what should be average. Because in a 50 50 proposition you should be losing half winning half


But you already know all this, and as a lot of you are gamblers yourselves you are uncannily always bemused that this thing called "variance" you observe that sometimes players win like 10 20 coinflips in a row and vice versa lose 10 20 in a row, isn't it madness? !
The strategy is simple just go with people that are getting super lucky, and go against people that are getting unlucky, you know what I mean, just observe people and you can tell when their on tilt, they start betting mor and more, the face becomes flushed, they go all in on a run or streak or something, yeah it feels kind of evil, like a vulture circling a carcass, ready to devour the poor weak thing,

I guess that's why they call it sharks at a poker table, going for the fish,

It's got to be a better strategy than most others, as in these zero sum games it's like the math is against you anyways in the long run, so you kind of have to transcend and take advantage of quantum properties and factors that aren't mathematical sometimes if you want to beat a game that's against you.

One more thing I don't know if anyone can explain if this is even correct or if it's Hollywood, that part in the 21 movie where they say that there are 3 doors, one of which holds the 10k Gold and you have to pick one, but then somebody gives you the chance to switch, do you take the switch and taking it apparently increasea your chanceas, is that true?

Thank you have a nice day

I forget the math but the Banker only wins on average one more hand per shoe than the Player, then you have to pay commission against that for the extra win. I'd rather play Player because I get 100% payout. But if I'm running progressions, the Banker will have an easier time hitting 6 in a row.

"One more thing I don't know if anyone can explain if this is even correct or if it's Hollywood, that part in the 21 movie where they say that there are 3 doors, one of which holds the 10k Gold and you have to pick one, but then somebody gives you the chance to switch, do you take the switch and taking it apparently increasea your chanceas, is that true?"

If the person giving you the chance to switch exposes one door that doesn't have the gold, then you should switch given the chance. This is known as the Monty Hall problem.

So if you're betting opposite a superstitious pattern player, and I think that's superstitious so I bet opposite you...

Does the bread land butter-up, or butter-down?


Best of luck.

Quote: Dieter

So if you're betting opposite a superstitious pattern player, and I think that's superstitious so I bet opposite you...

Does the bread land butter-up, or butter-down?


Best of luck.
link to original post

Tie the bread to the back of a cat, butter side out. Makes a cool anti gravity cat,

Sorry OP, your theory won't work because.... Well, just because.

Quote: Dieter

So if you're betting opposite a superstitious pattern player, and I think that's superstitious so I bet opposite you...

Does the bread land butter-up, or butter-down?


Best of luck.
link to original post

Great post!!!!!! Deserved more than just a thank you,….

Yeah prefer player as well, the only version they have in my state is the dragon panda baccarat where they pay banker player the same except on 3 card 7 banker win the banker bet pushes.
Yeah now I mostly play player 80 percent or more to not have any 2nd guesses and I like seeing it come up as a winner right away, but that strategy isn't working so well will have to tweak it, banker runs of 7 or higher be killing me. I don't that extra one matters because the variance is so high.

Quote: Dieter

So if you're betting opposite a superstitious pattern player, and I think that's superstitious so I bet opposite you...

Does the bread land butter-up, or butter-down?


Best of luck.
link to original post

Ha I don't know but that's why you can use that method plus going with the super lucky dude, or going against the person losing all their bets, slowly but surely you will profit. It's all energy..

Quote: bw

If the person giving you the chance to switch exposes one door that doesn't have the gold, then you should switch given the chance. This is known as the Monty Hall problem.
link to original post

Aren't you only supposed to switch if the "host" actually knows what's behind all the doors? That's the way I've always heard it.

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: bw

If the person giving you the chance to switch exposes one door that doesn't have the gold, then you should switch given the chance. This is known as the Monty Hall problem.
link to original post

Aren't you only supposed to switch if the "host" actually knows what's behind all the doors? That's the way I've always heard it.
link to original post

yes, sorry I left that part out.

In the Feynman story, I think the famous gambler would make a side bet at favorable odds Feynman didn't gamble. He was in Vegas because he enjoyed getting into adventures with interesting people.

Found the story, it's from "Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman"

That's neat you were able to find that, did you already read it or something?

Dang that debunked my theory haha will have to revise and come up with something else, or just make side bets with people like that as well

I read "Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman" when it was published. I was a friend of one of his grad students. Feynman was a nerd with unlimited curiousity.

Quote: Mental

I read "Surely you're joking, Mr. Feynman" when it was published. I was a friend of one of his grad students. Feynman was a nerd with unlimited curiousity.
link to original post

Fascinating character
He was unknown to me until
I saw Bela Fleck and the Flecktones in Baltimore at the Lyric opera house
They had a guest singer at the concert
A throat singer from Mongolia
Futureman started discussing Mongolian throat singing and how he discovered it through a Feynman book
That's when I took a deep dive into Feynman and read his books

His details about being an amateur safecracker in that book were what stuck with me. Great book.

Quote: Kloos366

That's neat you were able to find that, did you already read it or something?

Yes, read that book and others by/about Feynman. When I saw your post it didn't take long to pull the book off the shelf and find the relevant spot. And now I've lost most of the day reading most of it again. Lots of fun stories and I like his attitude.

Quote: bw

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: bw

If the person giving you the chance to switch exposes one door that doesn't have the gold, then you should switch given the chance. This is known as the Monty Hall problem.
link to original post

Aren't you only supposed to switch if the "host" actually knows what's behind all the doors? That's the way I've always heard it.
link to original post

yes, sorry I left that part out.
link to original post

Actually, you switch only if the host does NOT know where the winner is.

Monty Hall himself said he understands the math but said he would offer the switch based on whether he likes you or not, etc.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Actually, you switch only if the host does NOT know where the winner is.
link to original post

Actually actually, you switch only if the host does know where the winner is. Well, you can switch if the host does not know, but it does not improve your chances.

Quick version:

If the host does not know, then each door has an equal chance of being revealed; in the possibilities where the door with the gold is not revealed, the probability that it is behind your door is 1/2.

If the host does know, then either the gold is behind your door (probability 1/3), or it is not (probability 2/3 - the probability of the "wrong" door being opened is 1 in this case), so if you switch, the probability that you now have the door with the gold behind it is 2/3.

ETA: Somehow it appeared no one had answered this post, so I went into detail below, only to find a dozen other people had said much the same things I did. So I'm redundant, but I'll leave it up

Quote: Kloos366

I've lurked and scrolled through this forum on betting systems, and I've also gambled 10 plus years from a young age profusely in all types of games and sports, mostly on games with cards where you have some influence on whats going on, to video games, and also random ducking games like baccarat and roulette, dice ect. I barely play slots because just because

Anyway one time I was reading a book on some brilliant physicist, scientist type Richard Fenyman and he was talking with some famous gambler, Nick th Greek probably maybe you've heard of him, he said a method he used to play baccarat was to watch and wait for players that have superstitions and preconceived notions about patterns of the game, and then go against them, I'm not sure of the quantum mechanics, details involved all i know is that this world is made of energy, particles ect down to whatever sub atomic level, it's all waves, what's the point of all this, well these particles at particular moments are "luckier" or "unluckier" than what should be average. Because in a 50 50 proposition you should be losing half winning half


But you already know all this, and as a lot of you are gamblers yourselves you are uncannily always bemused that this thing called "variance" you observe that sometimes players win like 10 20 coinflips in a row and vice versa lose 10 20 in a row, isn't it madness? !
The strategy is simple just go with people that are getting super lucky, and go against people that are getting unlucky, you know what I mean, just observe people and you can tell when their on tilt, they start betting mor and more, the face becomes flushed, they go all in on a run or streak or something, yeah it feels kind of evil, like a vulture circling a carcass, ready to devour the poor weak thing,

I guess that's why they call it sharks at a poker table, going for the fish,

The games where you play the house, it's all and only math. Cards talk. The games where you play against someone else, you play the person.

Quote:

It's got to be a better strategy than most others, as in these zero sum games it's like the math is against you anyways in the long run, so you kind of have to transcend and take advantage of quantum properties and factors that aren't mathematical sometimes if you want to beat a game that's against you.

The best strategy against the House ALWAYS lies in knowing the math.

Quote:

One more thing I don't know if anyone can explain if this is even correct or if it's Hollywood, that part in the 21 movie where they say that there are 3 doors, one of which holds the 10k Gold and you have to pick one, but then somebody gives you the chance to switch, do you take the switch and taking it apparently increasea your chanceas, is that true?

That is absolutely true as presented in the movie, but you skipped the most important part. You pick one of 3 doors - the odds are equal.

The host, who KNOWS THE RIGHT ANSWER, opens A WRONG DOOR.

THEN you're offered the switch.

The host NEVER opens the big prize door before offering to switch.

That all changes the odds to THE OTHER DOOR being right 2/3 of the time. The odds of YOUR door DIDN'T change. But the Host changed the odds for you on the OTHER door.

Search the Monty Hall Problem on this forum for a very good discussion on it. And the movie 21 did a great job - watch that classroom scene several times until it makes sense.

Quote:

Thank you have a nice day
link to original post

It makes more sense with your capitalized words and kinda obvious if he opens a wrong door, I don't know why I couldn't get that when I watched it the first time but hey maybe I still don't get it, but yeah I see the point.

As to your point of the best chances are when knowing the math behind them, I do but that's not enough, there's got to be something underneath it, something that isn't math because that can only take you so far, it has to be either getting in the "zone" , you may have heard of this, athletes and people that play competitive games like chess or mlg video games refer to it as a state of mind where things slow down and you achieve a heightened ability to discern and play the game. Now this is a sort of Zen mode that can be achieved via various ways, and is difficult to maintain. Like catching fire you've heard of it, possibly this isn't just random but takes a certain preparation and certain sounds / levels of mental thought to be in. Plenty of people can describe this better than this so someone I'm sure will.

You know like the double slit experiment where particles behave differently when they know that they are being observed that means humans do as well so you could benefit from certain ones who are in the zone and those who are in the opposite and are getting wretchedly unlucky. Who knows maybe I'm off my rocker but I think there's something to it. Thank you all for your replies this is a good forum.

Quote: ChumpChange

I forget the math but the Banker only wins on average one more hand per shoe than the Player, then you have to pay commission against that for the extra win. I'd rather play Player because I get 100% payout. But if I'm running progressions, the Banker will have an easier time hitting 6 in a row.
link to original post

I’ve played millions of dollars of baccarat online. I swear banker is the worst bet. Player wins more and when you do win you have to pay 5% of the win. That’s a significant amount. I have literally dozens of pictures of player getting 5 9’s in a row. Never happens on banker. Then banker does stupid stuff like hitting on 6 and then losing. I can chalk it up to the online game is rigged. A casino with stadium gaming was having a multiplier day last week. I only played banker. Player won 5 shoes in a row. I think I lost about 50 hands overall.

With that being said of course I bet banker probably 80% of the time. I liken it to what they say about voting. Yea your one vote doesn’t count but voting gives you a right to complain. Same with banker.

The percentage that banker wins more is so slight that it doesn't matter what you bet, like that one dude above said tilt averages like one more win a shoe, and out of 75 to 80 hands a shoe, that is trivial. And plus with all the huge variance it's like either you get lucky or you don't, I prefer player but hey you gotta do banker sometimes too because it will go on large banker runs. I've never played with the 5 percent though that would be strange, so do they make you pay that right after the bet is over, because what if you go bust and don't pay it haha.?

Monty Hall Problem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOQowCeAnRs

Quote: Kloos366

The percentage that banker wins more is so slight that it doesn't matter what you bet, like that one dude above said tilt averages like one more win a shoe, and out of 75 to 80 hands a shoe, that is trivial. And plus with all the huge variance it's like either you get lucky or you don't, I prefer player but hey you gotta do banker sometimes too because it will go on large banker runs. I've never played with the 5 percent though that would be strange, so do they make you pay that right after the bet is over, because what if you go bust and don't pay it haha.?
link to original post

The specific manner of commission settlement varies by house.

I've seen some low limit tables just waiting for commissions to be settled by players that busted out, because the shuffle is not allowed to proceed with outstanding commissions.

This mostly seems to be a problem at low limit tables, where it's hard to make change in 5% increments.