Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 2095
November 24th, 2022 at 10:54:05 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

[]In fact, the wiki post gives a formula for a random walk where "at every iterative step, is moved by a normal distribution having mean μ and standard deviation σ and failure occurs if it reaches 0 or a negative value." So it works for more than just coin-flip PDFs.

Also, your conjecture cannot be applicable without specifying how many bets are intended to be made in session (barring busting out). The OP does not specify a session length and there is no canonical session length. What exactly is your conjecture? What do you mean by "works very well for me"? We cannot prove or disprove it without knowing what it is in detail.
link to original post

I said that Iíve seen exact formulas only for even-money scenarios. The formula you see on Wikipedia is an estimate, not an exact calculation. Like all estimates, it will work very well for certain scenarios and be useless for others. Incidentally, you seem to think that one short Wikipedia article is the full bible on RoR. It isnít
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 2095
November 24th, 2022 at 11:01:07 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

[
Also, your conjecture cannot be applicable without specifying how many bets are intended to be made in session (barring busting out). The OP does not specify a session length and there is no canonical session length. What exactly is your conjecture? What do you mean by "works very well for me"? We cannot prove or disprove it without knowing what it is in detail.
link to original post

The description of the simple conjecture and the game I usually apply it to are listed in the last few pages of this thread
Itís all about making that GTA
Talldude90
Talldude90
Joined: Aug 24, 2022
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 69
December 2nd, 2022 at 4:25:51 PM permalink
In general, wouldn't betting systems be a defined boon in a +EV situation as long as you are not raising your RoR significantly? Wouldn't you be getting a lot more coin-in against the +EV (as long as the system dosen't lower your EV), so your end profit should be bigger for a set amount of time gambling (say 4 hour session)?
Last edited by: Talldude90 on Dec 2, 2022
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3858
December 2nd, 2022 at 4:48:31 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: Mental

[]In fact, the wiki post gives a formula for a random walk where "at every iterative step, is moved by a normal distribution having mean μ and standard deviation σ and failure occurs if it reaches 0 or a negative value." So it works for more than just coin-flip PDFs.

Also, your conjecture cannot be applicable without specifying how many bets are intended to be made in session (barring busting out). The OP does not specify a session length and there is no canonical session length. What exactly is your conjecture? What do you mean by "works very well for me"? We cannot prove or disprove it without knowing what it is in detail.
link to original post

I said that Iíve seen exact formulas only for even-money scenarios. The formula you see on Wikipedia is an estimate, not an exact calculation. Like all estimates, it will work very well for certain scenarios and be useless for others. Incidentally, you seem to think that one short Wikipedia article is the full bible on RoR. It isnít
link to original post



Unless Iím missing something (which is very possible). thereís nothing about even money bets that makes an RoR calculation much more difficult than longer or shorter odds.

The concept gets applied in stock market investing through optimal portfolio growth theory. Kellyís original paper, if my memory still serves, was a problem of information theory that is easiest to apply to a horse race (and which horses you should bet on when you have imperfect information but better than random information).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 239
Thanks for this post from:
DJGeniusDieter
December 2nd, 2022 at 5:11:31 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

In general, wouldn't betting systems be a defined boon in a +EV situation as long as you are not raising your RoR significantly? Wouldn't you be getting a lot more coin-in against the +EV (as long as the system doesn't lower your EV), so your end profit should be bigger for a set amount of time gambling (say 4 hour session)?
link to original post

Yes, but that ideal 'betting system' is to raise you bet and hold it there. Flat betting at a higher level gets you the biggest increase in throughput with the smallest increase in variance and RoR. Any betting system which has this same average bet, but changes the bet up and down, is inferior in terms of risk. It will also be slower in many cases.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3858
Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
December 2nd, 2022 at 5:15:01 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: Talldude90

In general, wouldn't betting systems be a defined boon in a +EV situation as long as you are not raising your RoR significantly? Wouldn't you be getting a lot more coin-in against the +EV (as long as the system doesn't lower your EV), so your end profit should be bigger for a set amount of time gambling (say 4 hour session)?
link to original post

Yes, but that ideal 'betting system' is to raise you bet and hold it there. Flat betting at a higher level gets you the biggest increase in throughput with the smallest increase in variance and RoR. Any betting system which has this same average bet, but changes the bet up and down, is inferior in terms of risk. It will also be slower in many cases.
link to original post



Isnít the ďidealĒ betting system to bet the Kelly fraction of your bankroll each bet, which would vary as your bankroll fluctuates.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 156
  • Posts: 20921
December 2nd, 2022 at 6:49:35 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Mental

Quote: Talldude90

In general, wouldn't betting systems be a defined boon in a +EV situation as long as you are not raising your RoR significantly? Wouldn't you be getting a lot more coin-in against the +EV (as long as the system doesn't lower your EV), so your end profit should be bigger for a set amount of time gambling (say 4 hour session)?
link to original post

Yes, but that ideal 'betting system' is to raise you bet and hold it there. Flat betting at a higher level gets you the biggest increase in throughput with the smallest increase in variance and RoR. Any betting system which has this same average bet, but changes the bet up and down, is inferior in terms of risk. It will also be slower in many cases.
link to original post



Isnít the ďidealĒ betting system to bet the Kelly fraction of your bankroll each bet, which would vary as your bankroll fluctuates.
link to original post

How practical would that be to do on the fly while playing?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
DJGenius
DJGenius
Joined: Mar 5, 2010
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 45
Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
December 2nd, 2022 at 7:40:28 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mental

Quote: Talldude90

In general, wouldn't betting systems be a defined boon in a +EV situation as long as you are not raising your RoR significantly? Wouldn't you be getting a lot more coin-in against the +EV (as long as the system doesn't lower your EV), so your end profit should be bigger for a set amount of time gambling (say 4 hour session)?
link to original post

Yes, but that ideal 'betting system' is to raise you bet and hold it there. Flat betting at a higher level gets you the biggest increase in throughput with the smallest increase in variance and RoR. Any betting system which has this same average bet, but changes the bet up and down, is inferior in terms of risk. It will also be slower in many cases.
link to original post



Isnít the ďidealĒ betting system to bet the Kelly fraction of your bankroll each bet, which would vary as your bankroll fluctuates.
link to original post

How practical would that be to do on the fly while playing?
link to original post



What I've always been told about this was that it's not really wise to adjust your Kelly bet too often (on every single hand for example). I imagine you would base your flat bet on the formula and then play a pre-determined number of hands (a session?) and then recalculate from there.

But I don't know if that is actually something that is mathematically beneficial or if it's just recommended due to the sheer impracticability of recalculating and changing the bet that often.
"The Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all." - Elf Queen Galadriel, teaching Frodo about the importance of blackjack basic strategy.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 58
  • Posts: 6683
Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:38:47 AM permalink
Quote: DJGenius


What I've always been told about this was that it's not really wise to adjust your Kelly bet too often (on every single hand for example). I imagine you would base your flat bet on the formula and then play a pre-determined number of hands (a session?) and then recalculate from there.

But I don't know if that is actually something that is mathematically beneficial or if it's just recommended due to the sheer impracticability of recalculating and changing the bet that often.
link to original post


If I recall correctly, for a low variance game like Blackjack, Kelly says to wager a percentage of your bankroll equal to your percentage edge. But of course that edge fluctuates and you spread your wagers a lot. You are not going to sit placing bets of $101, $102, $103 $:o)
Just step up or down when your bankroll has changed significantly enough. E.g increased by 25%, maybe what was a $100 wager might be a $125 one.
Even with exact kelly betting, your bankroll chart would be all over the place and would not look very optimal.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3858
December 3rd, 2022 at 3:09:34 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mental

Quote: Talldude90

In general, wouldn't betting systems be a defined boon in a +EV situation as long as you are not raising your RoR significantly? Wouldn't you be getting a lot more coin-in against the +EV (as long as the system doesn't lower your EV), so your end profit should be bigger for a set amount of time gambling (say 4 hour session)?
link to original post

Yes, but that ideal 'betting system' is to raise you bet and hold it there. Flat betting at a higher level gets you the biggest increase in throughput with the smallest increase in variance and RoR. Any betting system which has this same average bet, but changes the bet up and down, is inferior in terms of risk. It will also be slower in many cases.
link to original post



Isnít the ďidealĒ betting system to bet the Kelly fraction of your bankroll each bet, which would vary as your bankroll fluctuates.
link to original post

How practical would that be to do on the fly while playing?
link to original post



Not practical at all. I thought I was responding to a post about what was mathematically ideal in the abstract. But in the real world there are a bunch of practical considerations.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

  • Jump to: