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13 members have voted

mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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August 21st, 2021 at 9:11:18 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Mr. mwalz9: I am not sure that analysis is correct being that 73% of hands that establish a point, lose. Just sayin' what Mr. W. has presented in the past.

tuttigym



If the odds bet has 0 house edge, and you lay odds on the don't after the point is established, does that not reduce your house edge and increase your EV?

There are better math guys here than me but a $25 line bet has to have a lower EV than a $25 line bet with odds.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 21st, 2021 at 9:12:47 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

With all due respect Mission, standing at the table playing with just one bet surrounded by other players are who are throwing chips at dealers, shouting, and in general carrying on is asking a bit much of anyone at that type of gambling venue. Each win or loss is, granted, one to one but not being a part of the party is much like watching the Weather Channel's 8 minute local updates. I personally could not envision anyone just standing there for 2 - 3 hours watching one bet get resolved toss by toss or hand by hand. The same with roulette or even "21," but that is just me.

tuttigym



The question presented was to not bust out in that period of time/number of resolutions. I presented an answer that makes such a result nearly impossible. That's the best that I can do. I did not claim it would be an exciting way to play.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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Mission146
August 21st, 2021 at 10:15:02 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

If the odds bet has 0 house edge, and you lay odds on the don't after the point is established, does that not reduce your house edge and increase your EV?

There are better math guys here than me but a $25 line bet has to have a lower EV than a $25 line bet with odds.


If the line rate is "expected" to lose 73% of the time after point establishment, the HE increases at that same rate. Point play is at least 60+% of all play. Playing with odds increases $$ losses with point play losses at the same rate or 73% of the time. I am sure that one or more of the "math" guys will configure an equation or formula to show something different, but that is not reality. I know that you have played craps and EXPERIENCED (emphasis) this phenomena.

Mission, yes you did exactly what was asked. I editorialized the reality of sheer boredom.

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
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August 21st, 2021 at 10:22:14 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

If the line rate is "expected" to lose 73% of the time after point establishment, the HE increases at that same rate. Point play is at least 60+% of all play. Playing with odds increases $$ losses with point play losses at the same rate or 73% of the time. I am sure that one or more of the "math" guys will configure an equation or formula to show something different, but that is not reality. I know that you have played craps and EXPERIENCED (emphasis) this phenomena.

Mission, yes you did exactly what was asked. I editorialized the reality of sheer boredom.

tuttigym



How about this:

Before you start playing that way, you say to yourself:

I brought with me $1,000 that I was willing to lose. If I am profitable after this 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line, then I will take my profits and break them up such that I bet all profits on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down after the 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line (the most likely case) , but have more than $500, then I will take any amount over $500 and bet it such that it all goes on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down and have less than $500, then, same thing. After that, same thing with any resultant amount between $500-$1000, and then same thing with any amount over $1,000.

So, at the end, you will, "Play up," to the next multiple of $500 until you are left with some multiple of $500. Since busting out is virtually impossible (on the $10 betting), you know that the most likely result will be leaving having made some sort of sizable bet. Does that sound sufficiently exciting?

I do not advise this, of course. I advise not playing at all. My backup advice would be just to take whatever you have after playing the desired amount of time and leave without making any more bets.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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August 21st, 2021 at 10:40:36 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

If the odds bet has 0 house edge, and you lay odds on the don't after the point is established, does that not reduce your house edge and increase your EV?

There are better math guys here than me but a $25 line bet has to have a lower EV than a $25 line bet with odds.



Because the house edge is zero, that means that the house edge does not change (which means the expected value also does not change). A $25 bet on the passline, has a house edge of $0.35, which means there is an expected value to the player of -$0.35. That house edge and EV remains the same no matter how much is bet on the odds.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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August 21st, 2021 at 11:11:43 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

How about this:

Before you start playing that way, you say to yourself:

I brought with me $1,000 that I was willing to lose. If I am profitable after this 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line, then I will take my profits and break them up such that I bet all profits on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down after the 8-9 hours of doing nothing but betting $10 on the Pass Line (the most likely case) , but have more than $500, then I will take any amount over $500 and bet it such that it all goes on Pass Line + Odds for one hand. If I am down and have less than $500, then, same thing. After that, same thing with any resultant amount between $500-$1000, and then same thing with any amount over $1,000.

So, at the end, you will, "Play up," to the next multiple of $500 until you are left with some multiple of $500. Since busting out is virtually impossible (on the $10 betting), you know that the most likely result will be leaving having made some sort of sizable bet. Does that sound sufficiently exciting?

I do not advise this, of course. I advise not playing at all. My backup advice would be just to take whatever you have after playing the desired amount of time and leave without making any more bets.


Editorially. playing 8 or 9 hours of $10 bets would drive most sane folks insane knowing they could only win $10 on any given hand. I am glad you did not advise this or the rest of the advertised play. Your last two pieces of advise are the best IMO.

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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August 21st, 2021 at 11:16:48 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


Editorially. playing 8 or 9 hours of $10 bets would drive most sane folks insane knowing they could only win $10 on any given hand. I am glad you did not advise this or the rest of the advertised play. Your last two pieces of advise are the best IMO.

tuttigym



I've grinded on Video Poker online for ten cent bets for several hours, so that sort of thing wouldn't bother me. Of course, I did it that way because I was at a tremendous advantage on a deposit match promotion and wanted as little variance as possible. I'll just take the money, thank you.

It's a true test in discipline, which I could really stand to be better in other areas of life.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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August 21st, 2021 at 11:27:04 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Because the house edge is zero, that means that the house edge does not change (which means the expected value also does not change). A $25 bet on the passline, has a house edge of $0.35, which means there is an expected value to the player of -$0.35. That house edge and EV remains the same no matter how much is bet on the odds.


OK, somehow a 73% loss ratio becomes 0, and when one bets $25 on the PL, a 7 out results in the house taking only $24.65. Is that correct, or am I suppose to give the house an extra $.35 when the dealer takes my green chip? So next time when I go to the table and lose my PL wager and the dealer does not give me my 35 cents, what should I do? To whom do I complain?

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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Mission146
August 21st, 2021 at 11:32:13 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I've grinded on Video Poker online for ten cent bets for several hours, so that sort of thing wouldn't bother me. Of course, I did it that way because I was at a tremendous advantage on a deposit match promotion and wanted as little variance as possible. I'll just take the money, thank you.

It's a true test in discipline, which I could really stand to be better in other areas of life.


I personally could not do that as, after a while, boredom would set in, and i would actually fall asleep at the terminal.

Discipline in other areas, for me, also needs some work.

tuttigym
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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August 21st, 2021 at 11:34:40 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

OK, somehow a 73% loss ratio becomes 0, and when one bets $25 on the PL, a 7 out results in the house taking only $24.65. Is that correct, or am I suppose to give the house an extra $.35 when the dealer takes my green chip? So next time when I go to the table and lose my PL wager and the dealer does not give me my 35 cents, what should I do? To whom do I complain?

tuttigym



That is not correct.

Complain to anyone you want, other than wizardofvegas. Twitter would be a good place to start.

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