Laymedown
Laymedown
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
  • Threads: 15
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March 29th, 2018 at 4:16:29 PM permalink
Words well said.
Last edited by: Laymedown on Mar 29, 2018
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
March 29th, 2018 at 5:30:05 PM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

Words well said.



Seems your time spent reading -- you said elsewhere you do a lot of it -- allows you to dredge through long forgotten WoV gaming threads. Not saying it's good or bad, as I had thought to do so myself (but never found the time).

As a suggestion, if you find a good WoV craps thread (however ancient) your readers' time would be better spent if your, "Words well said," had a bit more meat on them. Please?
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 2156
March 29th, 2018 at 7:22:23 PM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

Words well said.


Got a great idea! Next time quote what you thought were words well said!
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
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March 29th, 2018 at 8:06:54 PM permalink
I've been giving some thought to betting systems lately. I'm 100% clear that in the long run, it loses... But what if a player never gets to the long run?

Let's say a player goes to a casino once or twice a year and intends to play for an hour or two when they are there... A martingale wouldn't be any worse than flat betting the average wager. and they would have more frequent winning sessions. I'd think that's good enough for a lot of people who don't want to learn complicated strategies.

I'd bet that even a good number of APs might even leverage some martingale betting if they had to double in an hour or lose a limb.

The problem I have with this article is that it suggests that the betting system is a long term winner. That's clearly wrong... In fairness, the author did call out the house edge, but completely dodged the gravity of that fact.

As an aside, I was playing blackjack the other night at a table next to a man in a tuxedo and a women in a wedding dress. As it turns out, they got married a few hours before and the best thing that they could come up with to do on their wedding night was blackjack. The new hubby was using some kind of progressive betting system... Less extreme than martingale, but he was raising his bet after a loss. I think he was a little ahead... The Mrs seemed impressed. I have no idea how this story ends but I'm assuming both "got lucky". Good for them.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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March 29th, 2018 at 8:32:08 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

I've been giving some thought to betting systems lately. I'm 100% clear that in the long run, it loses... But what if a player never gets to the long run?



This is an argument betting system believers/salesmen all make. They say that, okay, maybe my system won't survive billions of bets, or whatever the "long term" means, but how about I cut and run before I get there?

There is no magic time when it is safe to cash out, tag home, and return and repeat. No method of adding up negative bets can sum to a positive expectation. Most systems are designed to achieve a likelihood of a short term win, at the cost of small chance of a huge loss. That huge loss could occur the first session, the 100th session, or any session. Eventually, every player will show a net loss given enough play.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
prozema
prozema
Joined: Oct 24, 2016
  • Threads: 22
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March 29th, 2018 at 8:36:23 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This is an argument betting system believers/salesmen all make. They say that, okay, maybe my system won't survive billions of bets, or whatever the "long term" means, but how about I cut and run before I get there?

There is no magic time when it is safe to cash out, tag home, and return and repeat. No method of adding up negative bets can sum to a positive expectation. Most systems are designed to achieve a likelihood of a short term win, at the cost of small chance of a huge loss. That huge loss could occur the first session, the 100th session, or any session. Eventually, every player will show a net loss given enough play.



I'll delete those Rob Singer YouTube videos from my browser history and never speak of this again. :-)

Edit:. For the record, I'm not selling anything.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 29th, 2018 at 8:37:12 PM permalink
A fun, but frustrating system is the anti- martingale. Instead of doubling your losses, double your win. Manage to win eight in a row and you are golden.
Laymedown
Laymedown
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 265
March 29th, 2018 at 11:55:51 PM permalink
Sorry, I understand. I thought I added the quote to the reply. I'm new so as I read through the articles I find very interesting ones, I should also pay attention to the dates.
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.

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