treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
• Posts: 1739
March 24th, 2014 at 5:45:54 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Play the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.

I just don't know what to think of EvenBob. He's smart, entertaining, interesting and every once in a while, funny. But, his gambling posts center around 'chumps', wising up chumps' and 'I'm not wising up chumps anymore'. The above post would be red meat for him had he not posted it is he just being sarcastic? EvenBob?
Each day is better than the next
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
March 24th, 2014 at 6:01:21 AM permalink
Like flipping a coin, you know there's a 25% chance the next two flips will both result in heads, (since they can either land HH, HT, TH, or TT)...but you know the very next one will have a 50% chance of landing on heads. If it landed on heads the first flip, would you say there is a 25% chance of it landing on heads the next flip since there is only 1/4 ways to hit HH? Or, would you say there is a 50% chance of it landing on heads the next flip, because the coin can either land HH (heads second) or HT (tails second),,,,in this case, the TH and TT possibilities do not matter because the first flip was not a tails. So, in conclusion, the second flip has a 50% chance of landing on heads [this is determined after the first flip], while the chance of it hitting heads twice in a row (out of 2 flips) is only 25% [this is determined before the first flip].
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
• Posts: 1739
March 24th, 2014 at 6:23:35 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Just not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.

Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.

Totally agree with EvenBob. Have I taken the bait?
Each day is better than the next
gpac1377
Joined: Apr 7, 2013
• Posts: 676
March 24th, 2014 at 6:42:51 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

I just don't know what to think of EvenBob.

I had the same reaction when I was new here. He seemed to be trolling, but then I realized he was serious.

In his early days here on the forum, he had identical views about baccarat, which I summarized here:

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/15068-new-player-with-vegas-story-and-dont-pass-questions/6/#post269196

Obviously his views have evolved, but probably only because he ran bad at baccarat and concluded that those ideas must be wrong. The OP here references a similar philosophy:

Quote: Alien8ed

Betting systems are bunk... I know this from experience.

He acknowledges the truth, but only because of his actual results. People don't accept math at face value. They have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Totally agree with EvenBob. Have I taken the bait?

No comment, LOL.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
Alien8ed
Joined: Mar 11, 2014
• Posts: 20
March 24th, 2014 at 4:59:32 PM permalink
I did indeed pee on the fence and my urine stream will probably never be right again. I'm just interested in understanding how it all works. It seems, at face value (though probably incorrectly), that if I had a big enough bank roll I'd be more likely to win than lose if I could keep playing in a martingale type system. My curiosity (though I didn't assume it to be true) was that if I bet of 24 numbers, then tripled my bet every loss eventually I'd be increasingly more likely to win than lose in the long run. Again I admit I was peeing on the (this time, theoretical) fence. Playing for free online I noticed that over several thousand plays I had gotten to the point where on occasion I was betting 2440 on 2 of the 12's but as of yet I've not lost that bet. I was just curious if I had been lucky or if there was math to support that by continuing to bet I was increasing my chances of winning. I take your word that the math says no... I just wanted to understand why.
Alien8ed
Joined: Mar 11, 2014
• Posts: 20
March 24th, 2014 at 5:12:07 PM permalink
I should add I was fooled because while I frequently lost while betting \$10/10 I loss less frequently when tripling to \$30/30 less frequently when betting \$90/90 less frequently when betting \$270/270 so it seemed like the more often I had to triple the less frequently I would lose which made me think that my odds were getting better with each triple.
gpac1377
Joined: Apr 7, 2013
• Posts: 676
March 24th, 2014 at 5:32:58 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

I just wanted to understand why.

I'm not the best at explaining this stuff, but the problem is that the losing amounts will tend to exceed your accumulated winnings.

The key concept IMO is that a series of negative numbers will always total to a negative number. Therefore, if you play a game in which every bet is negative-expectation (due to the house advantage), then your overall expectation is always negative. To gain a mathematical edge, you must place bets that are positive-expectation (such as in blackjack when the remaining cards are sufficiently rich in aces and tens).

The Wizard of Odds companion site is very much worth a look if you haven't already done that.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
Alien8ed
Joined: Mar 11, 2014