Alien8ed
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March 23rd, 2014 at 3:57:02 PM permalink
Betting systems are bunk... I know this from experience.

That said, I'm curious.

If I were to place a bet on 1-12 and 13 -24 and the wheel spun a 14, would it be beneficial to place my next bet on 1-12 and 25 - 36 since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.

Cheers,

=8=
SkittleCar1
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:01:12 PM permalink
The ball has no memory.
rdw4potus
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:01:48 PM permalink
The wheel doesn't remember that it just landed on 14. Each dozen is equally likely to hit on each spin. So there's no need to move your bet from one spin to the next.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
doubleluck
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:04:05 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

Betting systems are bunk... I know this from experience.

That said, I'm curious.

If I were to place a bet on 1-12 and 13 -24 and the wheel spun a 14, would it be beneficial to place my next bet on 1-12 and 25 - 36 since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.

Cheers,

=8=



Blackjack the only casino game that has dependent variables. Bet whatever you want on the roulette wheel, you are no more likely to hit a particular number than any other number.
Alien8ed
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:14:20 PM permalink
Right. I do understand how the gamblers fallacy works, but the wizard himself has stated (in his FAQ) that the probability of rolling 8 blacks in a row is only about .5% where as the probability for rolling 1 black is 48% so it does seem that the math supports the idea that rolling the same thing multiple times (multiple blacks, multiple 1st 12's, etc.) decreases with each spin. I'll post his comment from the FAQ below.

"If the maximum loss is 255 units then you can bet up to 8 times. The probability of losing eight bets in a row (if betting red) is (19/37)8=.004835. So, you have 99.52% of winning one unit, and 0.48% of losing 255 units."
rdw4potus
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:19:58 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

Right. I do understand how the gamblers fallacy works, but the wizard himself has stated (in his FAQ) that the probability of rolling 8 blacks in a row is only about .5% where as the probability for rolling 1 black is 48% so it does seem that the math supports the idea that rolling the same thing multiple times (multiple blacks, multiple 1st 12's, etc.) decreases with each spin. I'll post his comment from the FAQ below.

"If the maximum loss is 255 units then you can bet up to 8 times. The probability of losing eight bets in a row (if betting red) is (19/37)8=.004835. So, you have 99.52% of winning one unit, and 0.48% of losing 255 units."



Sure, but that's only true before the first spin. You might think about it as though the odds only apply to future events. So, if you want to have 8 blacks in a row but you just rolled one, then the odds of ending up with 8 in a row are now (19/37)^7. If the second spin is also black, then the odds of winding up with 8 in a row are now (19/37)^6...if you've seen 7 in a row, the odds of ending with 8 (or more) in a row are now (19/37)^1.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
FleaStiff
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:22:31 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.

Is this change in the probability of a 12 a conspiracy on the part of the ball and wheel to maintain a natural order of the universe and avoid a repeat number? Haven't you seen those photos of annunciators that show repeat after repeat and stunned players all wondering why the ball and wheel are misbehaving?

I would just love to have your next roulette experience be four 12s in a row. Unfortunately, no matter how politely I ask the wheel and ball to do this to you, they seem to be deaf to my pleas.
Alien8ed
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:29:10 PM permalink
Oh yeah I know it misbehaves. I lost $500 on 11 consecutive blacks the other night. It definitely happens. The wizards math still seems to suggest that the probability of rolling 11 blacks in a row is less than the probability of rolling a single black. I'm not advocating this as any sort of system... I'm just curious how the math plays out.
rdw4potus
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:35:33 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

Oh yeah I know it misbehaves. I lost $500 on 11 consecutive blacks the other night. It definitely happens. The wizards math still seems to suggest that the probability of rolling 11 blacks in a row is less than the probability of rolling a single black. I'm not advocating this as any sort of system... I'm just curious how the math plays out.



No it doesn't. And, the difference you're looking at isn't slight.

If you haven't yet rolled, the odds of getting 11 blacks in a row are (18/37)^11=0.000361, or 1 in 2768.
If you're already rolled 10 blacks in a row, the odds of rolling a total of 11 (or more) blacks in a row are (18/37)^1=0.486486, or 1 in 2.0555.
If you just rolled a red, the odds of rolling a black on the next spin are (18/37)^1=0.486486, or 1 in 2.0555.

1 in 2768 is much more that slightly worse than 1 in 2.05555. And 1 in 2.05555 is exactly equal to 1 in 2.05555.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
ThatDonGuy
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:37:33 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

If I were to place a bet on 1-12 and 13 -24 and the wheel spun a 14, would it be beneficial to place my next bet on 1-12 and 25 - 36 since the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly.


Where do you get that "the probability of rolling the same 12 multiple times decreases slightly"?

The probability of two consecutive spins both landing in the second 12 is 36/361 (on a double-zero wheel).

However, the probability of two consecutive spins landing in the second 12 followed by the first 12 is also 36/361, and the probability of two consecutive spins landing in the second 12 followed by the third 12 is, you guessed it, 36/361. This is the part that people seem to forget.
Alien8ed
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:40:25 PM permalink
Yup I got ya. Thanks for the help. I just needed some clarification of how the math works. I appreciate it. Cheers fellas :)
MangoJ
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:40:43 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

Right. I do understand how the gamblers fallacy works, but the wizard himself has stated (in his FAQ) that the probability of rolling 8 blacks in a row is only about .5% where as the probability for rolling 1 black is 48% so it does seem that the math supports the idea that rolling the same thing multiple times (multiple blacks, multiple 1st 12's, etc.) decreases with each spin.



Of course the probability of rolling 8 blacks is lower than rolling 1 black. Whenever you rolled 8 blacks you also rolled 1 black, but not vice-versa. Hence you roll less 8 blacks than 1 blacks. This is of course trivial.

The thing you need to study is termed "conditional probability". For roulette, the probability that you roll 8 blacks, under the condition that you have already rolled 7 blacks, is 48% - exactly the same as a single black. The reason for that conditional probability to behave that simple is also clear: at the instant the croupier takes out the ball and spins the roulette wheel, the ball and the wheel are physically in the same states no matter where it had landed before. Since our world does follow physical laws, we expect same probabilities for next spins. (If the physical state were different for the ball or the wheel, we would name the difference "memory").


Anyway, conditional probability is quite useful: The probabiltiy that you wake up at 5am is very different from the probability that you wake up at 5am, under the condition that your alarm-clock was set to 5am. That's exactly why we use alarm clocks in the first place :)
Alien8ed
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:47:32 PM permalink
The probability that I'll wake up at 5am, even with an alarm clock, is approximately 0 ;)
rdw4potus
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March 23rd, 2014 at 4:50:34 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

The probability that I'll wake up at 5am, even with an alarm clock, is approximately 0 ;)



LOL! me, too. I wake up at 7 and think "THAT'S why the last 2 hours of that dream included a buzzer!"
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Tomspur
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March 23rd, 2014 at 5:11:42 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

LOL! me, too. I wake up at 7 and think "THAT'S why the last 2 hours of that dream included a buzzer!"



Same as when you watch too much NCAA what with all the "buzzer beaters" :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
mustangsally
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March 23rd, 2014 at 6:57:05 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

Oh yeah I know it misbehaves. I lost $500 on 11 consecutive blacks the other night. It definitely happens. The wizards math still seems to suggest that the probability of rolling 11 blacks in a row is less than the probability of rolling a single black. I'm not advocating this as any sort of system... I'm just curious how the math plays out.

here is how the math plays out for 11 in a row
there is a 1 in 3,712.12 chance that the very next 11 spins will all be Black

IF the first spin is Black (given Black is the first spin)
we have 1 in a row and to complete 11 in a row we now only need another 10 in a row.
and that is much easier than the next 11 being all Black only 1 in 1,758.37

say you have seen 5 Blacks in a row, you only need the next 6 spins to be Black to see your 11 in a row and that is even easier at that spin at 1 in 88.53
it is getting easier to see 11 Blacks in a row if we have already seen a few Blacks in a row.
here is one look in a table. each cell is the probability of a Black spin
Blacks needed/spin1234567891011prob1 in
11 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/380.0002693883,712.12
101 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/380.0005687081,758.37
911 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/380.001200605832.91
8111 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/38 18/380.002534611394.54


Black in a row neededprob1 in
110.0002693883,712.12
100.0005687081,758.37
90.001200605832.91
80.002534611394.54
70.005350845186.89
60.01129622888.53
50.02384759341.93
40.05034491819.86
30.1062837159.41
20.2243767314.46
10.4736842112.11


Now you did not say how many spins you saw before 11 Blacks in a row happened.
an easier way to see 11 Blacks in a row is to have more spins
this table shows how much easier it is over 12 to 22 spins total where 11 in a row could happen
spinsprob1 in
120.0004111712,432.08
130.0005529541,808.47
140.0006947371,439.39
150.000836521,195.43
160.0009783031,022.18
170.001120086892.79
180.001261869792.48
190.001403652712.43
200.001545436647.07
210.001687219592.69
220.001829002546.75

about a 1 in 547 chance that in the very next 22 spins we get a run of 11 Blacks
way easier than 1 in 3,712.12 for the very next 11 spins

the trend was not your friend
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
EvenBob
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March 23rd, 2014 at 8:04:46 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

The wheel doesn't remember that it just landed on 14. Each dozen is equally likely to hit on each spin. So there's no need to move your bet from one spin to the next.



Just not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.

Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Lemieux66
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March 23rd, 2014 at 8:28:25 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Just not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.

Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.



If this was a new person, this might inspire 30 pages of debate.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
EvenBob
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March 23rd, 2014 at 9:09:41 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

If this was a new person, this might inspire 30 pages of debate.



Play the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
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March 23rd, 2014 at 9:20:32 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Play the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.



Are you actually seriously claiming that baccarat is completely random and that magic affects the roulette wheel? What if the same fairies that cause the second dozen to sleep also force Player to run and hide?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Lemieux66
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March 23rd, 2014 at 9:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Play the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.



That's a pattern you've seen with your own eyes. It's not an overall actual pattern of roulette as a whole.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
soxfan
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March 23rd, 2014 at 9:36:54 PM permalink
Hmm, so the evenbob-spike is advocating an anti-streak style of play, amazing, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
Tomspur
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:16:50 PM permalink
Bob, I expect more from a learned man such as yourself! :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
EvenBob
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:17:27 PM permalink
Where did I mention bac. If you want to think
probability doesn't effect roulette, that's your
problem.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
michael99000
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:22:21 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Just not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon.



I know it's only March, but the 2014 WoV Post of the Year race is now over IMO
EvenBob
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:24:46 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

That's a pattern you've seen with your own eyes. It's not an overall actual pattern of roulette as a whole.



A dozen hitting 15 out of 18 times is not
a pattern, it's a fact. The other two
dozens sleeping during this is also a
fact. I actually play this game in a real
casino, when you get a few thousand
sessions under your belt, we'll talk.
Wising up the gallery, I never learn..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
michael99000
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:26:30 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

A dozen hitting 15 out of 18 times is not
a pattern, it's a fact. The other two
dozens sleeping during this is also a
fact. I actually play this game in a real
casino, when you get a few thousand
sessions under your belt, we'll talk.
Wising up the gallery, I never learn..



How does the wheel know that that a certain dozen has been hitting a lot or not a lot recently?

And why would anyone wanna have ONE session of roulette under their belt, let alone 1000?
rdw4potus
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:33:22 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Where did I mention bac. If you want to think
probability doesn't effect roulette, that's your
problem.


Quote: EvenBob

The shoe doesn't unfold like
a flower, what rubbish. It unfolds like what it
is, a series of unconnected random events. There
is no deep mathematical meaning, there is no
meaning at all. That's rather the point of it....

...You work and work and get nowhere.
Bac players follow trends and what they perceive
to be patterns, that's it, that's all....



Quote: EvenBob

...As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.

Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.




So, the shoe could give a damn about whether the next hand is player or banker or tie, but the wheel is very concerned about what numbers it spits out? That's actually pretty close to exactly what you've said in these two quoted posts...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Alien8ed
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March 23rd, 2014 at 10:47:01 PM permalink
Sorry, I was hoping this thread would die with the joke about the alarm clock. I just wanted to learn something about the math.
michael99000
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March 23rd, 2014 at 11:53:12 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

So, the shoe could give a damn about whether the next hand is player or banker or tie, but the wheel is very concerned about what numbers it spits out? That's actually pretty close to exactly what you've said in these two quoted posts...



Don't forget, Bobs got a friend whose never had a losing session in roulette. He had a close call recently , but thank God black had hit 16 times in a row so obviously red was a lock. He hit that for a max bet and walked away a winner. Updated session record: 5831-0
treetopbuddy
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March 24th, 2014 at 5:45:54 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Play the game for a couple years and you'll
see I'm right. The same 12 numbers will not
keep banging out for long before the
other 24 dominate for awhile. Sometimes
a dozen will go 16 out of 20, then you'll
really see it sleep for awhile. Often you'll
see a guy getting real lucky betting the
same 2 dozens 10 times in a row and
winning every time. What he didn't see
was the dozen he's not betting hit 11
out of 12 of the previous spins. But when
it wakes up, they just betting the same 2
that were winning, like they're magic or
something. Clods.



I just don't know what to think of EvenBob. He's smart, entertaining, interesting and every once in a while, funny. But, his gambling posts center around 'chumps', wising up chumps' and 'I'm not wising up chumps anymore'. The above post would be red meat for him had he not posted it……… is he just being sarcastic? EvenBob?
Each day is better than the next
RS
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March 24th, 2014 at 6:01:21 AM permalink
Like flipping a coin, you know there's a 25% chance the next two flips will both result in heads, (since they can either land HH, HT, TH, or TT)...but you know the very next one will have a 50% chance of landing on heads. If it landed on heads the first flip, would you say there is a 25% chance of it landing on heads the next flip since there is only 1/4 ways to hit HH? Or, would you say there is a 50% chance of it landing on heads the next flip, because the coin can either land HH (heads second) or HT (tails second),,,,in this case, the TH and TT possibilities do not matter because the first flip was not a tails. So, in conclusion, the second flip has a 50% chance of landing on heads [this is determined after the first flip], while the chance of it hitting heads twice in a row (out of 2 flips) is only 25% [this is determined before the first flip].
treetopbuddy
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March 24th, 2014 at 6:23:35 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Just not true. As someone who has played a
lot of roulette, if you see a really active dozen
that's hit maybe 10 of the last 12 spins, you
can take it to the bank that dozen will sleep
soon. The wheel just isn't going to ignore the
other 24 numbers for any great length of time.

Problem is, you can wait all day for this to
happen, if it ever does. After a wheel exhausts
a dozen in this way, it often sleeps for 12-15
spins. Very often.



Totally agree with EvenBob. Have I taken the bait?
Each day is better than the next
gpac1377
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March 24th, 2014 at 6:42:51 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

I just don't know what to think of EvenBob.


I had the same reaction when I was new here. He seemed to be trolling, but then I realized he was serious.

In his early days here on the forum, he had identical views about baccarat, which I summarized here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/15068-new-player-with-vegas-story-and-dont-pass-questions/6/#post269196

Obviously his views have evolved, but probably only because he ran bad at baccarat and concluded that those ideas must be wrong. The OP here references a similar philosophy:

Quote: Alien8ed

Betting systems are bunk... I know this from experience.


He acknowledges the truth, but only because of his actual results. People don't accept math at face value. They have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Totally agree with EvenBob. Have I taken the bait?


No comment, LOL.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
Alien8ed
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March 24th, 2014 at 4:59:32 PM permalink
I did indeed pee on the fence and my urine stream will probably never be right again. I'm just interested in understanding how it all works. It seems, at face value (though probably incorrectly), that if I had a big enough bank roll I'd be more likely to win than lose if I could keep playing in a martingale type system. My curiosity (though I didn't assume it to be true) was that if I bet of 24 numbers, then tripled my bet every loss eventually I'd be increasingly more likely to win than lose in the long run. Again I admit I was peeing on the (this time, theoretical) fence. Playing for free online I noticed that over several thousand plays I had gotten to the point where on occasion I was betting 2440 on 2 of the 12's but as of yet I've not lost that bet. I was just curious if I had been lucky or if there was math to support that by continuing to bet I was increasing my chances of winning. I take your word that the math says no... I just wanted to understand why.
Alien8ed
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March 24th, 2014 at 5:12:07 PM permalink
I should add I was fooled because while I frequently lost while betting $10/10 I loss less frequently when tripling to $30/30 less frequently when betting $90/90 less frequently when betting $270/270 so it seemed like the more often I had to triple the less frequently I would lose which made me think that my odds were getting better with each triple.
gpac1377
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March 24th, 2014 at 5:32:58 PM permalink
Quote: Alien8ed

I just wanted to understand why.


I'm not the best at explaining this stuff, but the problem is that the losing amounts will tend to exceed your accumulated winnings.

The key concept IMO is that a series of negative numbers will always total to a negative number. Therefore, if you play a game in which every bet is negative-expectation (due to the house advantage), then your overall expectation is always negative. To gain a mathematical edge, you must place bets that are positive-expectation (such as in blackjack when the remaining cards are sufficiently rich in aces and tens).

The Wizard of Odds companion site is very much worth a look if you haven't already done that.
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Alien8ed
Alien8ed
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Joined: Mar 11, 2014
March 24th, 2014 at 5:37:41 PM permalink
Thanks. I did look there and there was a misunderstanding of his math that lead me to ask this question. He indicated that the chances of spinning 8 blacks in a row was less than a half percent so I figured if you could double long enough your chances of winning would eventually be really good. I think they've cleared me up here.
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