OK, dice experts, dissect my betting pattern
I've been learning craps for the last couple of years, as I move away from my former favorite of blackjack. I began by doing a regular pass-line bet, backed by the maximum amount of odds. Then I discovered place and come bets, and found how they can make a long roll a lucrative one. I started off by doing the pass line bet with full odds, then a come bet on every subsequent roll, paying for odds as I go along.
On my last trip to the casino I worked up a new betting pattern that makes my seven exposure a fixed amount on every point. Here's what I do (assume a 3-4-5 table with a $25 line bet - assume the point is 6)
$25 line bet.
Full odds on the line bet ($125)
$25 come bet.
Place the 8 for $60. ($60)
Place the 5 and 9 for $40 each ($80)
Buy the 4 and 10 for $25. ($52 with commission)
Once the 4, 5, 8, 9, or 10 rolls, I use the profits from the place bets to pay for full odds. If I am coming on every roll, as I calculate it, my total seven exposure is capped at $317, yes?
I see the immediate downside to this system - I need numbers to repeat twice to make money (or have the point come in). But I like the upside of the certainty of the seven exposure. And a longer roll is going to be very lucrative, without doing anything beyond replacing my come bets.
Any comments on this strategy, or suggestions for tweaking it, or wholesale criticisms?
Here are my comments towards your post:
1. As long as you understand that no system actually has a positive edge in craps, any system that makes you happy is a good one. Some people will argue for the best possible bets only (lowest house edge) but if it takes away from your enjoyment of the game, do as you will. Heck, if betting a $1000 on snake eyes each roll gets your blood pounding, go for it.
2. Your system is a great one for someone who craves immediate action and wants to lower the house edge as time goes on. Personally, I bet the pass line, full odds, and I am always on the come, with full odds. We are similiar in the sense that both of us have to repeat a number twice before we get paid, but your way is going to get bets up faster with the downside of having a slightly higher house advantage.
3. If you place the 6 & 8 for $60 each, you will get paid $70 + your initial $60 or $130. So as I understand it, you will get $5 in change and have a $125 odds bet on your $25 come bet.
4. If you place the 5 or 9 for $40 each, you will get paid $56 + your initial $40 or $96. This means you will drop another $4 to bring your odds bet up to $100 on your $25 come bet?
5. Buying the 4 and 10 for $25, you will get paid $45 + your initial $25 or $70. This means you will drop another $5 to bring your odds bet up to $75 on your $25 come bet?
6. I am not sure what you mean by total exposure is capped at $317. It seems that you are forgetting the $25 come bet on each and every roll, which adds another $150 of action. And, assuming that you have hit every single number once, you will have a total of $775 spread on the table. If the question is how much have I placed on the table, I would say that would be a maximum $317 + $150 - $5, + $8 + $10 or $480 of your own money.
7. I actually like your style of betting. You are hoping to find a nice long roll (then again, if you are betting the passline, who isn't).
8. Welcome again to the forum. It is always good to get another avid craps fan here.
If I needed more action, I'd do the free odds before I'd do place bets. Like Gambler says, though, make the bets you want as long as it has occurred to you that the more you bet the free odds the less the overall odds are against you.
"But I like the upside of the certainty of the seven exposure." You might expand on this, I'm not following you here.
I see it.Quote: gambler6. I am not sure what you mean by total exposure is capped at $317.
Add all those bets after the initial come out 6 and it adds up to $367 - but since that includes a $25 come bet, the exposure on a single roll is $317.
If the next roll is any of the other numbers, the place bet payoff and down pays for the odds on that come bet, as well as the new come bet. Ditto for the following roll.
As I see it, if you're comfortable with that kind of exposure, it's not a bad betting pattern. Of course, you've got a little more to worry about: Rolls of 2,3,12. And a string of short rolls could be devastating, but you knew that...
Personally, I like it. It's aggressive, without playing with the "junk in the middle".
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I just returned from a trip to Las Vegas and played this way. I was running pretty bad. The dealer was adamant that I should ditch my method and just make place bets. I said I can't bring myself to make anything less than the best bets. Eventually we hit two monster rolls (not at that casino), and I made my money back and more.
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I sometimes work my odds on the comeout and sometimes don't. It's just a matter of preference since statistically it has a negligible effect. Usually if I have the table to myself+friends I will leave them on.
One time, I had my come bets working on the come out roll, and a 7 was rolled. The dealer didn't take my bets, and then the stick mentioned that my bets were working and needed to be taken. The dealer said to the stick that he was trying to help out the only guy at the table who was tipping. Of course, the box man noticed this exchange, so the dealer picked up the chips. About 15 minutes later, I again had my come bets working on the come out roll, and a 7 was rolled. The dealer again didn't pick up my chips, and I noticed a wink between him and the stick. I threw in an extra $5 tip for the boys.
Quote: konceptumDid you mean leave the bets on, since the dealers will forget to take away your bets on 7 on the comeout? I've noticed this happens as well. I tend to leave all my bets on, and even though they mark my bets that they are working, they are so used to the bets not being on that they will leave up my odds even if a 7 is rolled. I have also noticed that if you are known as a tipper, that they will intentionally "forget" to take away your bets, unless the box man happens to notice.
One time, I had my come bets working on the come out roll, and a 7 was rolled. The dealer didn't take my bets, and then the stick mentioned that my bets were working and needed to be taken. The dealer said to the stick that he was trying to help out the only guy at the table who was tipping. Of course, the box man noticed this exchange, so the dealer picked up the chips. About 15 minutes later, I again had my come bets working on the come out roll, and a 7 was rolled. The dealer again didn't pick up my chips, and I noticed a wink between him and the stick. I threw in an extra $5 tip for the boys.
thats a good story. but typically you dont want to do anything to draw attention to your bets such as having them place an ON button on your bets. since then it will be fresh on their mind making it less likely they will make any errors. where otherwise they may be distracted and go right to paying any winning passline wagers out of habit.
Quote: CrappedOutCraps is my favorite game in the casino. The social element combines with the personal activity of throwing the dice to make a compelling game.
I've been learning craps for the last couple of years, as I move away from my former favorite of blackjack. I began by doing a regular pass-line bet, backed by the maximum amount of odds. Then I discovered place and come bets, and found how they can make a long roll a lucrative one. I started off by doing the pass line bet with full odds, then a come bet on every subsequent roll, paying for odds as I go along.
On my last trip to the casino I worked up a new betting pattern that makes my seven exposure a fixed amount on every point. Here's what I do (assume a 3-4-5 table with a $25 line bet - assume the point is 6)
$25 line bet.
Full odds on the line bet ($125)
$25 come bet.
Place the 8 for $60. ($60)
Place the 5 and 9 for $40 each ($80)
Buy the 4 and 10 for $25. ($52 with commission)
Once the 4, 5, 8, 9, or 10 rolls, I use the profits from the place bets to pay for full odds. If I am coming on every roll, as I calculate it, my total seven exposure is capped at $317, yes?
I get $315. 25 125 25 60 80 52 = $367, but you win the come bet and don't pay the vig on the buy bets, presumably, so -$50 - $2 = $315. (I think this is becoming standard.)
If the 8 hits, your come bet goes to the 8, you pocket $5 and put your $125 odds. You also make another come bet, so:
25 125 25 25 125 80 50 = 455 - 50 = 405
Of this, $70 is winnings, $25 is an additional bet and $5 you pocketed:
405 - 70 = $335 (the original $315, plus the additional $25 come minus the $5 excess from the place 8.
Each time a number hits, you make an additional come bet, but the odds for your prior come is covered (mostly) by the place winnings, so your exposure goes up in increments of $25 or so each hit, not counting your winnings. Of course, once you win a bet, that money is now yours, so it's debatable whether to count it as "exposure".
You are financing a bet without a casino edge with a bet that has one, but you are also adding expected loss each time with your come bet.
If your casino collects the vig on buy bets only on a win, then you should be buying the 5/9 for whatever is the highest amount that still carries a $1 vig. At some places that is $25, some $30. Ask. A $40 place 5/9 has an ev of -$1.60, so you could save 37.5% of that.
I understand your desire to get all the numbers covered right away, but you are putting a lot of money on bets that carry a house edge. If you can find a casino allowing higher odds multiples, and can wait a bit, you could use winnings from your pass and come bets to finance higher odds multiples, which have no edge. If you make a come bet on every non-comeout roll, you will average 2.44 come-bet resolutions for each pass resolution. Just a thought.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: rudeboyoithats a good story. but typically you dont want to do anything to draw attention to your bets such as having them place an ON button on your bets. since then it will be fresh on their mind making it less likely they will make any errors. where otherwise they may be distracted and go right to paying any winning passline wagers out of habit.
You are right. Normally, when I ask that my come bets are on, the dealer will place that ON button on them. However, if I've been tipping good, I've had instances where, when I ask that my come bets be on, the dealer doesn't place the ON button on them, but still pays me when the number is rolled.
Sometimes I think when you are tipping, the dealers are more willing to make "intentional" mistakes in your favor. Another example: As I've mentioned, I like to play the Hard 10 (and I always have a two-way Hard 10). On a come out roll, the stick asked if I was working or not, and I said I was working. Every other person at the table told the stick their bets were off. When the roll was a 7, my dealer told the stick that my bet was supposed to have been off as well. The stick complied.
These kinds of things don't happen all the time, and when they do happen, they are usually when the box man isn't present. But, given the recent trend toward a box man working two different tables, or also acting as pit boss and taking care of comps, there are plenty of opportunities for the box man to be away from the table, or just not have his full attention on the table.
What are you doing to decrease the incidence of 7's on your turn.
What are you doing to increase the amounts of money wagered on low vig bets.
What are you doing to decrease the amounts of money wagered on high vig bets.
What are you doing to decrease the amounts of money wagered on poor shooters.
Have you read any good books? Have you joined any good dice websites? Have you found any players that make their living when the odds are in their favor?
You gotta get past the blahs!!
Interesting idea. Have you run the numbers? What kind of edge does this have?
Personally, I think ignoring FIVE 7s is kinda liberal. You might have better luck selling the idea if you ignored ONE 7. Then again, it really depends on the numbers....
=(8/36)-(4/36)+6/36*(9/36*(3/9-(9/10)*(6/9))+27/36*(1/3-2/3))+8/36*(10/36*(2/5-(9/10)*(3/5))+26/36*(2/5-3/5))+10/36*(11/36*(5/11-(9/10)*(6/11))+25/36*(5/11-6/11))
this is for getting a $1 hardway bet on a $5 bet if you immediately point seven out. if the point is a 4, 6, 8, or T, you get a $1 hardway bet for that point. if its a 5 or 9 and you immediately seven out, you get nothing.
=(8/36)-(4/36)+6/36*(9/36*(3/9-(6/9)+(6/9)*(8/5)*(1/9))+27/36*(1/3-2/3))+8/36*(10/36*(2/5-(5/5)*(3/5))+26/36*(2/5-3/5))+10/36*(11/36*(5/11-(6/11)+(6/11)*(10/5)*(1/11))+25/36*(5/11-6/11))
the house is only a slight favorite under these conditions at -0.0786%.
this is for a $10 wager giving a $1 hardway bet for same conditions above.
=(8/36)-(4/36)+6/36*(9/36*(3/9-(6/9)+(6/9)*(8/10)*(1/9))+27/36*(1/3-2/3))+8/36*(10/36*(2/5-(5/5)*(3/5))+26/36*(2/5-3/5))+10/36*(11/36*(5/11-(6/11)+(6/11)*(10/10)*(1/11))+25/36*(5/11-6/11))
the house still has an edge at -0.7464%.
maybe implement this rule at a $5 minimum table to get people betting $10 instead. and if they start winning on some hardways, it might encourage them to start betting them more themselves. plus the take is more on a $10 bet with these conditions than a $5 bet with normal conditions. so if this encourages players that otherwise wouldve been making $5 line bets to make $10 line bets instead, its more profitable for the casino.
Rudeboyoi's numbers look good.
I think you're right though, that I should change my suggestion for the casino. Instead of ignoring 5 7's, I'll ask the casino if they will ignore the first 7 after any point is made.
I'm sure some casino will like the idea.
I tried out the system this past week, and the obvious answers soon asserted themselves: the big risk is the quick 7 after the point it set. Had that happen quite a few times. On the other hand, once an extended roll is established, this is just a gusher of chips. Pay, pay, pay, craps, pay, craps, eleven, pay, pay pay craps, eleven, pay, pay, pay, seven out.
I'm sure this is just selective memory at work, but I think my longest rolls came on my own throws. I don't sling the dice down the table, I used the 3-V set and lofted them to an empty point at the base of the opposite end from (preferable) Stick Right 1. I had several long rolls. And a couple of times, everything loaded up for pay, full odds on 5 or 6 points, but then the evil 7.
When rollers just slung the dice down the table, I pulled down my bets and just bet the point and placed the 6 and 8. Seemed to work out OK, overall, but after about 8 hours of play, was down about 800. But one long roll at the end would have had the opposite result, so I am not complaining.....
Quote: rudeboyoiru working your place/buy bets on the comeout roll too?
No, I didn't. As the Wizard's discussion of craps says, it's probably the wrong play, but I didn't want to push things.
Quote: teddysIt's not a bad betting pattern. You might want to simply try gambler's method of pass line plus odds and then come bet plus odds on every roll. You needn't take max odds if that would be more than you are willing to bet. You could try double or 3x4x5x odds. You will get a lot of action and it is pretty exciting.
In fact, this is what I was doing previously - the problem, if you can call it that, was a roll where points were not repeated on the load up. Keeping adding odds resulted in less downside certainty on the seven exposure.
Using my original pattern could work like this:
$25 ($25)
Full odds on point of 6 $125 ($150)
Come bet $25 ($175)
Full odds on throw of 8 $125 ($300)
Come bet $25 ($325)
Full odds on throw of 5 $100 ($425)
Come bet $25 ($450)
Full odds on throw of 9 $100 ($550)
Come bet $25 ($575)
Full odds on throw of 4 $75 ($650)
Come bet $25 ($675)
Full odds on throw of 10 $75 ($750)
And then the frigging 7 out.
So I am down $750 and haven't collected a dime. Of course, this is the worst case scenario. Which is why I got to thinking about a similar betting pattern that gets to the same result with less immediate exposure.
Quote: goatcabinI get $315. 25 125 25 60 80 52 = $367, but you win the come bet and don't pay the vig on the buy bets, presumably, so -$50 - $2 = $315. (I think this is becoming standard.)
If the 8 hits, your come bet goes to the 8, you pocket $5 and put your $125 odds. You also make another come bet, so:
25 125 25 25 125 80 50 = 455 - 50 = 405
Of this, $70 is winnings, $25 is an additional bet and $5 you pocketed:
405 - 70 = $335 (the original $315, plus the additional $25 come minus the $5 excess from the place 8.
Each time a number hits, you make an additional come bet, but the odds for your prior come is covered (mostly) by the place winnings, so your exposure goes up in increments of $25 or so each hit, not counting your winnings. Of course, once you win a bet, that money is now yours, so it's debatable whether to count it as "exposure".
You are financing a bet without a casino edge with a bet that has one, but you are also adding expected loss each time with your come bet.
If your casino collects the vig on buy bets only on a win, then you should be buying the 5/9 for whatever is the highest amount that still carries a $1 vig. At some places that is $25, some $30. Ask. A $40 place 5/9 has an ev of -$1.60, so you could save 37.5% of that.
I understand your desire to get all the numbers covered right away, but you are putting a lot of money on bets that carry a house edge. If you can find a casino allowing higher odds multiples, and can wait a bit, you could use winnings from your pass and come bets to finance higher odds multiples, which have no edge. If you make a come bet on every non-comeout roll, you will average 2.44 come-bet resolutions for each pass resolution. Just a thought.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Good analysis Alan, I believe you hit it precisely.
By the way, I'm not trying to chide your method personally. It's a fine method. Just offering tips to make more (lose less?) money.
Quote: teddysI agree with everything Alan said. You are buying less variance for a higher house edge. That's fine. I would like to add that in my lifetime of playing craps (I don't play that much), I have never experienced the situation you described (loading up all the numbers and sevening out). It's almost impossible to do that; it's like hitting the fire bet. You are bound to get some repeats. Also, you haven't said where you play, but if you go to a place that has 20X or more odds (at least six places in Las Vegas have it, and at least one in Atlantic City), you could decrease your exposure at the table while maintaining your same level of action. There is really no point in making $25/$125 line bets when you could be making $5/$100+ line bets.
By the way, I'm not trying to chide your method personally. It's a fine method. Just offering tips to make more (lose less?) money.
Which place in AC has 20x odds? Ballys?
Generally I play craps at Harrahs AC (5x), or at whichever Vegas place I am staying, generally meaning 3-4-5 odds. If I travel around a bit in LV, there are different neighborhood joints that have $3 passlines and 10x odds. It was at one of these places that just this week I loaded up all the numbers, never repeating one, and then got the dreaded seven. I did that twice in one session. Ooof! That hurt!
I don't take any offense at your observations and suggestions, that's exactly why I posted this thread. I know craps is a house edge game, and there are different ways to approach the house edge. Thanks for the analysis you and everyone else has taken the time to offer.
One of the things I am toying with now is how to approach a hedging strategy (yes, I know the Wizard says to never hedge your bets!) having all the numbers loaded up with odds, but making a point and having all my points washed away and having to restart the process. Using the $25 unit, would it be the $50 world bet on the next comeout roll? Or maybe just a $25 big red.
Quote: CrappedOut
Which place in AC has 20x odds? Ballys?
Yes. I have an unconfirmed report that Wild Wild West in Bally's has 100x odds now.
Quote: teddysYes. I have an unconfirmed report that Wild Wild West in Bally's has 100x odds now.
For the past few years, it's been 5x everywhere, then Bally's went to 10x. Though I haven't seen it, I got a mailer from Bally's (just Bally's proper and I guess WWW, not Caesars/Harrahs/Showboat) that says "100x Odds, all day, every day" So there you go.
10 x Odds All Day, Every Day at any Craps Table located at Bally's Atlantic City and the Wild Wild West Casino." Maybe the fat finger from the stock market crash moved south 100 miles.
Quote: CrappedOut
One of the things I am toying with now is how to approach a hedging strategy (yes, I know the Wizard says to never hedge your bets!) having all the numbers loaded up with odds, but making a point and having all my points washed away and having to restart the process. Using the $25 unit, would it be the $50 world bet on the next comeout roll? Or maybe just a $25 big red.
Hedging is a way to reduce variance. It does that; however, there is a price to pay, especially with the bets you refer to, which carry very high casino edges, so you add on to your expected loss. You also reduce your winnings every time you win a point. That's how hedges work: smaller wins and smaller losses. Also, those bets are one-roll bets; are you going to replace them when they lose?
You can reduce your variance AND your expected loss by simply betting less. By financing higher odds with lower odds, you gradually increase your variance only when winning, and your expected loss is much lower because you're betting less on the flat part of the bets, where ALL the expected loss is.
A $25 "Big Red" has an ev of -$4.17; a $50 World has an ev of -$6.67. That's on EVERY ROLL.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
