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Zcore13
Zcore13 
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 17th, 2013 at 3:53:31 PM permalink
In this one instance of using the system it was up at that point. The next time it might be down at that point and only up at the 1 hour point or maybe never. Being up in the short term does not take a system. It happens all the time with good old fashioned luck. But, in the long run, the luck and the system will run out and the odds take over.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
zeus71
zeus71
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:04:04 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

In this one instance of using the system it was up at that point. The next time it might be down at that point and only up at the 1 hour point or maybe never. Being up in the short term does not take a system. It happens all the time with good old fashioned luck. But, in the long run, the luck and the system will run out and the odds take over.



I'm not agree, It happens in hours of play, may be days..., but here we are speaking of years of play...

For example a strike or series of 10 consecutives lose happens ( math says...) every 1500 hands...more or less...
And "this" system was with an edge still 169.000 hands...
MangoJ
MangoJ
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:10:08 PM permalink
Quote: zeus71

And "this" system was with an edge still 169.000 hands...



First, the system was not never be with an edge. Otherwise he would be positive in the long run.
Second, as had been told before, the short run is dominated by "luck". Anything can happen there. Only the long run is dominated by house (or player) edge.

Third, there is no way to judge anything from the first 100k hands. Variance in Blackjack is HUGE, especially if you don't know much about his bet spread. If you max bet at the beginning and win a few hands, then play on with min bet, eventually you can survive much more than 100k hands.
zeus71
zeus71
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

In this one instance of using the system it was up at that point. The next time it might be down at that point and only up at the 1 hour point or maybe never. Being up in the short term does not take a system. It happens all the time with good old fashioned luck. But, in the long run, the luck and the system will run out and the odds take over.

ZCore13



What you says generally is right for a 10.000 hands simulation or less..Here we have 169.000 hands and a profit.
Zcore13
Zcore13 
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:15:00 PM permalink
It was just one time though. I can win at any game one time but that doesn't mean I have a short term advantage. If he would have run that same simulations 100 times, each time would have a different point of no return, including some that would be negative from the first bet.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
zeus71
zeus71
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:17:01 PM permalink
Quote: MangoJ

First, the system was not never be with an edge. Otherwise he would be positive in the long run.
Second, as had been told before, the short run is dominated by "luck". Anything can happen there. Only the long run is dominated by house (or player) edge.

Third, there is no way to judge anything from the first 100k hands. Variance in Blackjack is HUGE, especially if you don't know much about his bet spread. If you max bet at the beginning and win a few hands, then play on with min bet, eventually you can survive much more than 100k hands.



Sure. But luck, or standard deviation that may be positive or negative, exist also for a card counting player, where we have a supposed edge.(depending from rules, card counting system used,penetration,spreads, etc...)
So why we speak in a way where we are speaking about positive advantage, and in other way when is negative the expetation ?
Do you mean that also a card counter can be a loser in his play life, becouse is SHORT run ???
zeus71
zeus71
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March 17th, 2013 at 4:21:10 PM permalink
Quote: zeus71

Sure. But luck, or standard deviation that may be positive or negative, exist also for a card counting player, where we have a supposed edge.(depending from rules, card counting system used,penetration,spreads, etc...)
So why we speak in a way where we are speaking about positive advantage, and in other way when is negative the expetation ?
Do you mean that also a card counter can be a loser in his play life, becouse is SHORT run ???



That's the point of my discussion or doubts... short run vs long run, no matter is with an adge or not...
Or we can say standard deviation vs long run.
Sometimes we can identify standard deviation situation that maybe, can cut a negative expetation with bet schemes.
I said..."maybe".
MangoJ
MangoJ
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March 18th, 2013 at 1:35:55 AM permalink
Quote: zeus71

Sure. But luck, or standard deviation that may be positive or negative, exist also for a card counting player, where we have a supposed edge.(depending from rules, card counting system used,penetration,spreads, etc...)
So why we speak in a way where we are speaking about positive advantage, and in other way when is negative the expetation ?
Do you mean that also a card counter can be a loser in his play life, becouse is SHORT run ???



Yes, yes, and yes.

In the short run all results are determined by luck, even that of the card counter. In the short run there is not much difference to a positive or negative edge play. That is not something the card counter likes, but this is the reality. But the solution to that problem is simple: play as much as you can, and wait for the long run to take over.

And yes, even a card counter can lose his lifetime play. And this risk is very real. You can lower it by proper bankroll management and game selection.
zeus71
zeus71
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March 20th, 2013 at 2:58:26 PM permalink
Can we say that , maybe, sometimes, betting systems can't win in the long run, but are for sure better than flat betting ?
Many times people ask if betting systems can win in the long run in a game with disadvantage, and the answer is NO.
But if we ask if betting system can do better than flat betting, it's different.

In my opinion systems like Oscar, Blundell, can do better.

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