odiousgambit's Blog

We all know someone like this

Gamblers especially all know someone like this

My dear friend, sadly I have to conclude you are that guy, the guy who screws everybody he ever dealt with. I hope you don't take satisfaction from it, as it will be your Ruin. Nobody who matters will ever trust you. Dishonesty is your calling card, and Failure is your domain. You're young, you could turn it around, but you won't.  You're main-lining the Wrong Set of Values, the addiction to which it seems few ever kick. 


I was reflecting on that this morning.

Wins, Losses, Goals

Some blogs lately have been about keeping track of bankroll and wins and losses. So here's another one; for the "it's too long" concern, see the final paragraph.

After changing my mind about "how much it is" about a million times, I have finally realized that it's not the size of my bankroll that concerns me. Of course I want to figure how much I am comfortable with losing, and how much I need to take out of the bank, or to get a marker for, on any given day or trip, and actually I have handled those considerations pretty well right from the beginning. But the question also comes up as to how much to budget for gambling, the same way you might think about the set-aside for other recreation, or just for vacations or hobbies.

So I thought I had to decide how big my bankroll should be. First I saw no particular reason to consider it less than $10k even though I walk into a casino with much less than that. Later I decided that was dishonest as I would never allow myself to lose that much in a year. And if it isn't to be over a year, then what period is it? No wonder the Wizard refuses to be helpful in these matters.

Instead, for me I've decided that I just want to have a goal in mind as to how much I've won or lost. If overall I'd won more than I've lost, I could have the goal of keeping it that way; but like most negative expectation folks, albeit contrary to the experience of some of our bloggers**, over the decade and a half I've been hitting casinos, that hasn't held up. Now I've set a goal of how much I'd like to keep the losses down to, and that is $300 per year + tips [a "normalized" year*]. Though I was near that fairly recently, I am missing that goal now, it currently being $441 per normalized year. This includes transportation and lodging expenses when appropriate too.

Two questions might come up: How did I come up with the idea? How did I arrive at some figures?

As for the first matter, I have always been a defender of the idea that gambling is a reasonable pastime and in fact can be relatively cheap entertainment, even when it is totally negative expectation. As expected, golf has turned out to be a good example. Mrs. OG is in fact a fairly avid golfer, and partly from knowing she is aware of how much more it costs I have often compared it, but do not say anything to her. Not even close, though to be fair if I gambled as often as she golfed there would be less difference. On the other hand, I am satisfied with the amount of gambling I do. Nor do I begrudge her what she spends as long as some effort is made to keep it down. And I have other unrelated recreational expenses too.

As for the matter of arriving at figures, for the golf expense I am using what we write in checks to the country club. That has averaged just under $300 per month recently. Now, out of what we send, I do get some benefit, even though it's never golf or any sport ... just some meals, really. On the other hand, what this represents is not her total golf expense, not even close. There's tips, vehicle expense, and many, many excursions to other golf courses not included in any check to the CC. Please note I am aiming for an annual expense that equals a monthly golf expense. This allows me I think to make the case that gambling for me has been cheap entertainment.

For the wagering side of the figures, I like I know many others do here, have always kept a close account of how much it costs me to gamble. Travel expenses are included unless we are vacationing anyway, or unless I am on some personal business anyway.

There is almost no hope now that I will see myself get ahead of the game, or break even, so since I will not be treated to that gratification, I am determined to seek it this other way. I have a goal to reach.


TLDR: I've ditched any ideas about keeping track of my bankroll size in favor of setting a goal of an annual gambling expense equaling one month of my wife's golf expenses.

*Normally I make about 5 trips per year to gamble, so if I make only 3-4 trips as is likely this year, I don't want to count it as a year. Recent prior years were more than 5 trips, and I don't want to count them as years any more than the year I didn't gamble at all. So I am averaging out things to 5 trips equaling a year. This also means I can't reduce my [normalized] annual rate by only going 3 times this year.

**Envy raises its ugly head again ... sigh

A Casinoless Summer

I've been really getting clobbered with health insurance cost as I near my Medicare entrance date, which, though I have the money to pay it, causes me to scramble for cash at times. Creating the funds to pay by cashing out stocks and bonds is easy enough, but it can be regrettable to do it willynilly what with the tax implications that can be next in line to give a guy a good whipping.

So, I decided this should be a summer without casino gambling; home poker games, OK [such small stakes anyway in my case]. Investment moves - unavoidable. But one silly enough superstition I have is kicking in when it comes to larger [and avoidable] wagering: when winning would come in handy, that's when you will suffer big losses. It's like one of the rules of the Universe. This powerful force of the Universe afflicted me in Biloxi this year, and don't try to convince me otherwise!

I still come to this site daily. Daily. I sometimes wonder what the attraction really is. I do find I have less interest in some topics, and I post less now that no gambling trip is in sight. Maybe because of less immediate interest, I seem to have gotten a little tired of replying to the people who make the wild claims, are full of misinformation, etc. And tired of those ridiculous superstitions too. The ones I have are OK though!

Will I get back to my usual posting patterns when a trip looms? We shall see. In the meantime, I'll be checking back in. To some degree I am on the same wavelength with people here it seems, as a generalization - plenty of exceptions, but still - no denying it.

Bollocksed in Biloxi

That title is a little unfair as we had a good time overall. The gambling had some twists and turns.

Wanting to head somewhere warmer during a Spring that so far remains un-sprung here in Virginia, we headed to Biloxi last week to find somewhere warmer for a little change. Inserting TLDRS and I'll break it up into sections to make skipping easier.

Passing Through Alabama

TLDR: billboards suggest Alabama's main industry is ambulance chasing



We drove, and decided to go through KY, TN, and AL to avoid some construction. We experienced Alabama 'the long way', hitting it from the top and going down lengthwise. I was naturally wondering what the economy was like there now, and concluded from the view and the billboards that it revolves around farming and lawyering, specifically injury law! Billboard after billboard on the highway was an ad for a law firm promoting their services in case of an accident. I finally started counting them and came up with twenty such, and I think the real number must have been thirty! What the heck is all this ambulance chasing all about? Maybe other southern states are like that now; come to think of it, Mississippi was pretty bad too.

The IP and the Scarlet Pearl

TLDR: As hotels, the IP was lacking, the Pearl was better, but as casinos were fairly equal.

We stayed and played at the IP and at the Scarlet Pearl this trip. Having watched the offers from Beau Rivage fizzle out, and never having been to Biloxi before, I just looked for good deals on Hotels dot com, and with the help of my wife's indecision, couldn't, due to late attempt, add a third day to a good deal staying at the IP. The good deal for the two days though helped justify what I thought was a 'meh' deal at the Scarlet Pearl for the last day, and this turned out to be fortuitous as far as keeping the spouse happy.

It was totally my wife's idea to do Biloxi, though she doesn't gamble; I guess she thought we could just combine the things she wants with what I like. But the IP didn't cut it for her and that it was her idea to go to Biloxi did not spare grief for yours truly. I have to guess they went from having 'not enough' guests scheduled to then being packed. When I tried to get a third day it was fully booked, yet when I first booked earlier on the deal was good. The place managed to get my wife going right off the bat. There was no sign that said "hotel check-in", only a sign for "valet parking", which had vehicles backed up almost out into the street. We finally figured out 'valet' meant for hotel check in generally; she decides she does want the valet and bellmen service since we were in line for it and we find out the trouble was largely just the hotel being cheap about hiring enough people. Something about the check-in desk bothered her too, it was down this narrow hall with everybody squeezing past it who just wanted to walk through. We discover that there is some kind of Postmaster's convention packing the place, but something else was going on that we never figured out and it had families with small kids packing the place as well, and this of course was undesirable for everybody else. The kids had nothing to do as far as I could tell, except go to a smallish swimming pool. All these kids of course meant no way was my wife going to the pool. Another ridiculous result of being packed generally, and extra packed due to kids, but which we somehow mostly avoided, was long waits for the elevator. One lady said at one point she had to wait 45 minutes!

The room at the IP was just fine and then the missus settled down a bit. The casino, like all but one in the area, allowed smoking and the ventilation could be better. Overall, the IP did not get high marks from us, although for gambling purposes it was OK. Boyd owns the IP.

Things were different at the Scarlet Pearl. The place is newer so of course that helps a lot. Valet/Bellman were quick to show up and very friendly, and things were not crowded. For some unknown reason the gods smiled too and out of nowhere comes an upgrade to a 'junior suite'. I don't know why we were upgraded except I was paying full price for a room probably often discounted. In any case the missus really likes it and we thus are winding up our trip on the positive side, so it was well worth it.

The Scarlet Pearl casino is nicer somewhat, being newer, but the ventilation was good. For me this makes the smoking unnoticeable unless I am right next to someone smoking. There was the biggest HD tv screen at one end I've ever seen, great resolution and a tremendous improvement over big screens they had in the days before HD. Maybe that was a "where have you been for the last decade?" moment when it comes to me getting around, I don't know. Both places had Craps and some table games open all night, important to me since I am often an early riser. More about gambling below.

The junior suite was a corner room and the view was great. This picture from the website seems to be that very room, with just a hint as to how big it is. The Scarlet Pearl is 'its own thing' as far as who owns it.



Dining

TLDR: The IP screwed it up, but we liked BR Prime at the Beau Rivage and also a local restaurant.

The wife was further bummed by the self-described 'pan-asian' restaurant being dark both days at the IP while meanwhile the place is packed; so we ate at the sports bar the first night, which was OK for basic chow and had a good beer selection. Interested in eating somewhere nicer the second night, she finds she can't get a reservation at the steakhouse due to a private wine tasting party [there was nothing positive now the IP could do to redeem themselves in her eyes at this point. And she loves to go on trip-advisor]. We had heard that the steakhouse at the Beau Rivage, BR Prime, was good and headed there instead. This was a nice fine dining experience, though for some reason the drinks were deceptively strong. I might have stayed to play a bit after dinner, and maybe encouraging such an inclination was the idea for making the drinks strong in their thinking, but it had the opposite effect since though I was OK, Mrs. O'Gambit was a little too far along and we headed back. In her defence, from all the evidence I'd say they did a number on her; if you make the drinks that strong you should inform people.

Only tried the IP buffet, for breakfast, pretty good except there was no omelet chef. I think it is otherwise hard to make much of a judgement about a buffet with only breakfast to go by.

We also ate at Wentzel's Seafood restaurant in Biloxi that someone had recommended, and we really enjoyed our meal there. I'd say it is a 'gotta go' if in Biloxi https://www.wentzelsseafood.com/

Gambling

TLDR: I have been running bad at Craps, so tried other games without much improvement. But wound up with Pai Gow Poker, VP, and Craps stories to tell, and had some fun.

No real complaints about either place as far as the casinos themselves. Yeah, it'd be nice if they would be non-smoking, nice if the table minimums were lower, nice if the VP paytables were better. But the minimums were reasonable, $10 at Craps [I did catch $5 at the IP once], $15 at Pai Gow Poker. Oh, I also caught $5 minimum at Ultimate Texas Holdem in the early morning once at the IP, pretty remarkable. The best Jacks or Better VP was 8/5, and you had to look for it [I saw 6/5 somewhere] ... now *that* could have been better. Sorry, I have so little interest now in BJ that I can't tell you how that was in these places.

I'm afraid I have been running bad this year at everything except Video Poker, at which, ironically, I haven't found any decent paytables. I guess I can't complain as I had noted I was ahead in wins/losses in casino gambling since I last moved almost 5 years ago, but Craps in particular can put a hurting on me pretty fast considering the high variance available from 10x and 20x odds now at so many places. At my first session at the IP I was putting down $40 for free odds and lost about as much money as it is possible to lose in a short session at a $5 table. On subsequent sessions I reduced my free odds bet to $25 [20 if 5/9] no matter what was the minimum and what odds were offered, which was 10x in both places as I remember. Good thing too, as a winning session could not be generated, though carnage was reduced. Funny how fast the memory fades and a player starts to judge a game from the bias of recent action. The judgement from the gut on recent Craps play starts to go like this: "the house seems to have a large advantage, and especially the chances of making a point are heavily against the player. Surely such a conclusion is valid after the hundreds of rolls I've seen in my recent sessions". That's the gut talking, and it seems real, and my gut can easily ignore that I had the opposite experience for the last 4 and half years. Completely forgotten in the gut. Arnold Snyder's "you won't win" comes to mind as well, here that link is just below if you have never come across it. Well, I was overdue for some setbacks, and as far as it goes, the phenomenon of 'getting bummed' was much worse losing at Clue not so long ago!

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

I was definitely searching around for some other games, getting allergic to Craps. I played a certain amount of Jacks or Better VP even though I couldnt find a good paytable. In that circumstance I have followed the advice to just play one coin instead of the five coin option if the paytable is bad, since in the long run it is -EV anyway. These were bad enough even the comps don't take you anywhere near 100% return, so especially in that circumstance I play one coin. To entertain myself once in a while I try to guess when my luck will run better and then hit the max bet button for a few, then go back. The 'danger' is to be playing one coin and hit a Royal, so guess what happened? Yes it did! I did not take a picture and am trying to rub it out of my memory. But at least that was one session in which I came out ahead!

Pai Gow Poker was available both places. I had only played this once years ago, and something bugged me about it even though it was fun in a way. Now I know what it is: the variance [0.75] is too low for me to be a big fan of it; it bothers me to think that a player is almost guaranteeing a loss if a session is long enough. But I have now looked at EV/SD and decided if a player can do enough banking that figure can be held to about 11% for a one hour session; that's acceptable in my book.



So I was hoping playing early in the morning would mean a chance to play head to head against the dealer and bank, or have few enough at the table that maybe there would be no one objecting to it. My first morning at the IP I found an all-night table open with two others playing. I promptly asked if they minded if I banked, and got no objections. One guy, playing two spots and who had been up all night, said he didn't know what it was, so I gave a quick explanation and mentioned that it lowered the HE. This really disturbed the dealer, who decided I must be some kind of smartass. He had been helping this player every hand, and it was pretty clear this had been going on a while, probably all night. I realize now I had made it look suspect that he, Wonderful Mr. Helpful, had not shown this guy how to lower the house advantage while being the one to suggest playing two hands at once 'to win more' [probably]. So everything I had to say and everything I wanted to do had to look suspect so that we forgot he was the one who was suspect. I had a table with the players OK with my banking and a dealer who was not!

So I banked away when possible, and the third player, a truck driver who was about to go to work but knew already about banking, started banking too. On my first go at it, I had a lousy hand and lost all of them to the other players, I remember, while maybe I pushed against the dealer, not sure. In any case in my first go at banking, ever, I handed over a tidy sum. If I was wanting variance, I was getting variance! Watch out what you wish for! The banking in fact did not go well until the dealer changed, so that meant the first dealer got to see me take a beating. Never expect justice at a casino! The session overall was a modest loser for me.

I also had an early morning PGP session at the Scarlet Pearl. This time the table had several people and I was pretty sure I was going to have to wait to bank. I waited until we all lost a hand and said "maybe somebody should bank to change our luck?" No one responded much excpept a middle-aged Af/Am gentleman at the table who lightly agreed to it but not in the way you'd like. It was sort of "sure, go ahead, SOB" though that was not how he put it exactly. It reminded me of a situation described in the Wizard's video on PG Tiles and I backed off the idea. No one banked until it was just me and an Asian lady. This lady started banking to my delight, but her ideas about it led to an unexpected wrinkle in PGP play for me. This is all explained and discussed in this thread,

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/30607-hornswaggled-at-pai-gow-poker/#post639450

Biloxi Craps Peculiarity

TLDR: The African-American presence at the Craps tables was a little different.

I have played Craps in New Orleans, North Carolina, and in Tunica MS, but the scene in Biloxi was unique. You had a big ethnic mix for sure, that being not unusual in itself. You always see a lot of middle-aged Af/Ams, and for the most part they've left 'being cool' behind them. But at both places in Biloxi there were more of the younger men with the 'gangsta' look; the percent of whom were actual gangsters probably being minimal. I just got the idea it was the look and the way of being cool they were after. These tended to game together too, so at the Craps table it sometimes was 'gangstas' at one end and everyone else, including older black players, at the other end. It was the first time I ever experienced a feeling of one end of the table against the other. Now I and plenty of others, I think, were trying to shake off that feeling, maybe some of the gangstas too at times. But at other times that feeling was there, and sometimes it was noted the gangstas were all playing the Don't when the other side of the table was shooting. Everything was under control, so a good time was still had by all I guess. It was different though. I can't be sure it is like that all the time.

One thing I can tell you for sure, and this goes for New Orleans, North Carolina, DC area, Baltimore, and Tunica too, there is no such thing as the Magical Negro [google that if you have to] when it comes to shooting dice.

Biloxi as Winter Escape

The weather was better, but just somewhat. I think my wife figured Biloxi might be a place that we would both like and for a place to escape a Spring that is more like Winter in Virginia, but not sure she succeeded. I'd go back, but I'm not sure the other half will want to give it another go. She had a good time but may want to try elsewhere next time.

Finally Gambled in Charles Town

Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races and Slots, that is.

About 8 years ago, being in the area, I had walked in to the place while it was under construction for expansion. I was too early for Craps, the construction made the experience suck generally, I had no time, and a Suit managed to smart off to me for no good reason. All this at a time when the place had a bad reputation as a clip joint with everybody else it seemed. I didn't gamble and vowed to not go back anytime soon.

Time has gone by now though and my curiosity has increased due to the increase in competition from other casinos in the area. Clearly the previously denounced-by-all high table minimums and problems of that nature would likely be improved. Yet I rarely have excuse to be in the area, and I've really decided these days that to travel much distance just to go to a casino, with no other need to be in the area, is stupid.

By chance I was given some contact information for a bus going up there twice a year for next to nothing, thanks to reasonable upfront cost and a coupon for free play. So I bit for a Thursday excursion.

This time was different. Now that no construction is going on the place is agreeably nice enough inside, and plenty big. The dealers and other employees are definitely now nice as can be, while it would seem the table minimums* have come down. The joint that sells the burgers and similar food is reasonable enough, and if you are playing you can get rail drinks free. Anybody know what the policy was before? Call liquor was priced OK if playing.

Somebody warned me about the smoking, which indeed was allowed. The ventilation, though, is good, and I was not bothered at all unless the person next to me smoked - but there was that, admittedly; but a minor thing to me.

I used my freeplay coupon for VP, and as expected the paytables were lousy. JoB was 7/5, ugh, and the best return seemed to be Bonus Poker at the paytable that the Wizard simply labels as "Bonus Poker - 96.87%". This one at least pays 2 units for two pair; when it only returns your bet, same as a high pair, that bugs me! But clearly the VP there is just going to suck, which, I guess it has to be said, is very likely where the state gets a big piece of the pie. Did not see Ultimate X, didn't ask about it either, but I'm fairly sure I would have seen it.

Slot machines in enormous numbers there, but you already knew that. The table games offered are Blackjack | Craps | Mini-Baccarat | Big Six Wheel | Pai Gow | Let it Ride | Roulette | Three Card Poker | Four Card Poker - according to the site, and pretty much what I saw with at least one table open for each. There is a poker room as well. Of all this, I only am really interested in Craps, and I did play. Since this is TLDR-ish already, anybody interested in the outcome can check it out at the bottom.

I had to make a decision as to whether I would go for the Hollywood $500 loss rebate on slots. After talking to someone about it a few weeks back, it was out of the question due to having to make several trips back - as many as 4 trips back, I think he said. Now that I have looked into this bus, and other buses, the cost factor for the travel has come down if it could be coordinated with the preset dates the buses use. So I wanted to find out if the use-by dates could be known ahead of time, how many trips back would be required, and whether VP could be used for either generating the loss or recovering it. Alas, they couldn't confidently tell me any of these things, and nothing in writing. Even after pulling somebody from the back office, the VP questions could not be answered; that person did say it would be 2 trips back, but in a manner that suggested "no guarantees". So, obviously, if it turned out to be 4 trips instead I'd just have to either grin and bear it or go through hell trying to get it changed. I would obviously also say the intention is just to try to screw people by expecting them to work with as little information as possible; people you would ask about it pretended to know or did know next to nothing, wanting to hand you this brochure with incomplete information. That the full details were to be a surprise is part of the plan, with a $50 round-down rule easy to miss in the fine print to boot.

I'll let others take their chances with this kind of deal, life is too short to go through the hassle, ymmv. To top it off, it's not the kind of bet I like anyway. I call it "lottery style" gambling, where for the most part you can expect to just grind away while waiting for the big unlikely payoff. At least that's what I can glean about this, member MangoJ having posted this table showing that for a 90% return slot machine, playing it correctly [with $100 pulls] still 95% of the time you can expect to bust and be left with trying to get your money back. I suppose I too would have to go for it under ideal circumstances, the +EV nature of it being what it ideally would be, but I am inclined to pass on such things at the first little thing I don't like.

MangoJ posted this at:
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/11304-500-slot-loss-rebate-strategy/2/#post183064

spins	probability	pre rebate	rebate value	post rebate
W	1%	$9000	$0	$9000
LW	0.99%	$8900	$0	$8900
LLW	0.98%	$8800	$0	$8800
LLLW	0.97%	$8700	$0	$8700
LLLLW	0.96%	$8600	$0	$8600
LLLLL	95.1%	-$500	$500	$0
EV	100%	-$44.20	$475.50	$431.30

*oops, forgot to check the table minimums for other games besides craps

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My Craps Play

I just knew, even though it was a Thursday, the minimum would not be $5. What if it was 15 or 25? I would still want to play, so I had a plan to try to keep my total action close to the same. That means making one bet, no come bets, and maybe choosing some shooters to bet nothing on, etc. I've found one good way to keep the betting down is to bet only the Come or the DC; with no line bets, you have to wait sometimes to get your bet down.

It turned out to be a $10 minimum, and 3x4x5x - in the beginning it was 2x and has only recently changed I hear. This is a reasonable minimum, and I don't complain when faced with it - but I still cut down on the Come betting.

On my first session of 3, since I had planned to maybe only bet the DC, and the table not being busy, I just went ahead with that.



The DC, I find, can be maddeningly prone to have moments where you get clobbered with a 7 after placing your bet, a 7 that is in fact a 7-out for the right-siders on the line. You get to see the House take everybody's money and this went on for at least the first 30 minutes. I always vow never to switch sides in a session, having a superstition about that being bad luck [the dice hate side-switchers you see]. The dice finally went my way, respecting my steadfastness, and I only was down a bit this first session - I then took a break.

The next session saw a full table, and in that circumstance I like to be a right-side bettor. I was on the line sometimes, sometimes just a come-bettor or non-bettor, depending on the shooters I sized up - just superstition again to think that matters. In fact if you only saw my play, and found out I was a poster at WoV and not knowing which, you would maybe think I was one of those guys claiming to follow the energy and flow, the hot table and the cold table, and all that. I absolutely play like that - it entertains me. However, I freely admit it is all hogwash. The table was cold though; I was down about $250 overall at this point and took another break.

I didn't think I would play another session. But as I was killing time slow-playing VP for 25 cents a pull, I started pondering how I liked my new throw - kind of a shot-put thing [yes you should reference the superstition bit again]. So I returned for a third time and my shooting indeed was working - the other players noticing I think how weird it looked. But the whole table was hot this session, and I correctly picked the one lousy shooter. Everybody else that shot [half didn't] was killing it, including one man who had the signs of being so drunk he wouldn't remember being there. Some guy was following him around; I wonder if he was a host? This observer, whoever he was, tells the dude to flick his ashes in the ashtray, pointing out where it was. Yet it was clear this player was an old hand at a Craps table! Just blotto in the quiet way that would have some people not realize he had been drinking. This guy made a lot of money for me, as did my own shooting, as did almost all the other shooters. I did color up when my fortunes started to slide and this session had me taking $540 away [for the session] and up overall nicely for the trip - I left a happy camper.