Cooperation game
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50 members have voted
Thus, there is no greedy reason for betting $2 (assuming you're participating in the group parlay) other than maximizing EV, which I've already stated at this level I think is stupid when you can take a 0 variance approach.
Quote: RomesI don't see why we wouldn't divvy winnings up evenly (of the parlay bet I've proposed at the end). If someone claims "but I bet $2 and won more than you!" then the larger portion of the group can respond "yes, and we would have ALL LOST had we not bet $1."
Thus, there is no greedy reason for betting $2 (assuming you're participating in the group parlay) other than maximizing EV, which I've already stated at this level I think is stupid when you can take a 0 variance approach.
You could take a 0 variance approach by everyone working together. I just think that many are treating this similarly to the, "Golden Balls," game and this is an entirely different animal.
I agree. In fact, I proposed such a strategy back on Page 7. But with 10%-20% of the players not even voting in each round, I guess it was too much to expect a majority to collude together.Quote: Mission146While I do apologize for the recent unsuccessful round, one aspect of this that I find somewhat amusing is the failure to simply and effectively collude against the Wizard. The selections could be structured in such a way as to maximize total value if there was 100% cooperation. It's really a simple matter.
For those worried about anyone welching when it comes time to divvy up, if everyone were working in collusion, that problem could (mostly) be solved by properly orchestrating a rotation of who gets to pick the greater amounts.
Quote: TwoFeathersATL2F winnings = zero, bummer.
Told Wiz I'd go $3 on round #3 and did so.
Then shared that with the group.
Had no doubt some mental giant could figure out how to shake some $ out of Wiz's piggy bank.
Well, time for a new plan.
I am willing to cooperate in a group of three.
In that group two will go low bet each round, one will go high bet.
We will take turns, and I volunteer to go low bet on round #4.
This leaves me looking for two to cooperate with. PM me if interested, I'll take the first two requests.
This group of three I would hope can cooperate with a larger group, but we will be able to deliver 2 low bids and one high bid for now (if we can each be trusted;-)
Are 8 groups of three a better solution than one group of 21?
For the record, I never joined the team, because I never understood why being part of the team meant not only bidding together, but also combining funds in a parlay situation when the game ended.
Why does there need to be that parlay bet? And why does it need to be on a high odds long shot? All you people, with all your bickering, are reminding me of why I don't play carnival games - including BlackJack. Too many little old bitties, telling me I should play the side bet, pointing out the few times it would have won, and keeping silent all the times it would have lost.
I started out going for the best EV for the group. I bid $1 multiple times. Not any more. From here on, I will be bidding the max offered.
Currently, I'm ahead $2. Woo, F-ing Hoo!
And what am I gonna do with my winfall? Use it as part of my bankroll when I play Mike in Waitress Trivia, next month (assuming this game is over before the G2E meetup).
...Because no one wanted to get PayPal'd $3 from The Wizard after the game was over... We thought it more interesting to the forums, and potential profitable to just pool our cash and parlay the results for a chance to win decent money.Quote: DJTeddyBearI've remained a mostly silent participant in this. But I've finally had enough, and have to say something.
For the record, I never joined the team, because I never understood why being part of the team meant not only bidding together, but also combining funds in a parlay situation when the game ended.
It doesn't have to be. It was simply the first thing thrown out and others adopted it. Again, no one wanted to count the quarters coming to them at the end of this, so this was much more interesting. If you want to put it on red/black or pass/don't then feel free to chime in, but by your own regards you've been silent up until now, so how were we to know your desires?Quote: DJTeddyBearWhy does there need to be that parlay bet? And why does it need to be on a high odds long shot? All you people, with all your bickering, are reminding me of why I don't play carnival games - including BlackJack. Too many little old bitties, telling me I should play the side bet, pointing out the few times it would have won, and keeping silent all the times it would have lost.
Exactly the point. Now what if we could get like $200, put it on a couple half point parlays with the chance to win $10k? Then you would certainly be able to use the resulting money and we'd all have a fun forums ride together along the way...Quote: DJTeddyBearI started out going for the best EV for the group. I bid $1 multiple times. Not any more. From here on, I will be bidding the max offered.
Currently, I'm ahead $2. Woo, F-ing Hoo!
And what am I gonna do with my winfall? Use it as part of my bankroll when I play Mike in Waitress Trivia, next month (assuming this game is over before the G2E meetup).
Any better suggestions from anyone else feel free to chime in and let us know. I also believe there was a plan to open another thread with a pole on what to do with pooled winnings.
I seriously really didn't/don't care what was/is done with the money or if I ever even got it. If it was going to be put up on a long shot or something I just preferred it be on something with +EV and not someone's favorite horse. Hopefully no one actually really cares about the money.
I just know it will be a pain in the ass for Mike to send 40+ people a few buck's each.
Maybe we will get lucky and win.
Based on this game so far, I can only assume that few here would bother to bend down and pick up a dollar bill that was blowing down the street........
Perhaps we are approaching this wrong. Perhaps we need to create a $1 mafia, and 'persuade' the infidels that $1 is the only correct bid from now on. Where's Buzzard ? He could be of some use in this....
One minor observation.... people stating that the EV for all is best when the team guarantees a win by having enough $1 selectors....
if that happens for a few rounds in a row I would surmise Mike may end the entire contest. To really maximize EV for all, we have to keep Mike interested to continue the game. Since there is no pre determined end point, I believe bickering and the occasional failure keeps Mike interested and thus increases the EV for all.
Quote: SOOPOOI'll say it again.... whatever Wiz is trying to prove is unprovable at such low stakes.
People play games like chess all the time with no money at stake. I'm just asking everybody to try to win, however you define winning.
Quote:To really maximize EV for all, we have to keep Mike interested to continue the game. Since there is no pre determined end point, I believe bickering and the occasional failure keeps Mike interested and thus increases the EV for all.
I'm thinking about declaring the number of remaining rounds and stakes in each one, to avoid being gamed myself. I am interested in opinions pro or con on that.
Quote: WizardI'm thinking about declaring the number of remaining rounds and stakes in each one, to avoid being gamed myself. I am interested in opinions pro or con on that.
Maybe declare there will be at least X rounds left. Then u still get the psychological effect of saying there are X rounds left causing people to cooperate/not-cooperate knowing there's not much time left but you can still continue it further past that point.
Quote: rudeboyoiMaybe declare there will be at least X rounds left. Then u still get the psychological effect of saying there are X rounds left causing people to cooperate/not-cooperate knowing there's not much time left but you can still continue it further past that point.
Yeah, I can see that. Declare a minimum but no maximum.
Quote: WizardI'm leaning towards about 10 total rounds. I'd prefer to not declare the stakes in each one but hint that round 10 will be the grand finale.
I'll go on record right now saying that round 10 will be a bust for the players. If you make it much of a spread between $1 and $xx, there is no way enough people are going to be content taking the $1.
Where are all the good socialists when you need them?
OTOH, if the players can finally AGREE to 100% collude between now and round 10, then it is possible we could have a little dinero for Romes to parlay.
Cool.Quote: Wizard... hint that round 10 will be the grand finale.
I actually gave this some thought.
If it were my game, on the final round, bid a multiplier of 2X or 5X times what you already have. But there needs to be at least some minimum number of people bidding each, or nobody gets anything.
After round 4 I think I'll announce the total number of rounds.
I have an appointment at 9:00 this morning so the results will be delayed about two hours.
| Pick | Count | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| $1 | 24 | 64.9% |
| $3 | 13 | 35.1% |
| Total | 37 | 100.0% |
I'm impressed by the unselfishness of the group. However, it was at the cost of leaving money on table. 18 out of 37 people could have chosen $3, yet only 13 did. I think you all could gain by a little more selfish.
With that in mind, the choices for round 5 shall be $1 or $4. Picks will due due by 9:00 AM Vegas time on Saturday, Sep. 3.
I would also like to announce that there will be eight total rounds. The dollar amounts have not been decided but the last round will be the grand finale with larger wins.
No further reasoning or debate is necessary.
Yayyy way to go us, yet again.Quote: WizardI'm impressed by the unselfishness of the group. However, it was at the cost of leaving money on table. . . I think you all could gain by a little more selfish.
True we left a few $$$ on the table. BUT WE DIDN'T leave it all.
I reckon that we need a few people declaring that they will bid for the max amount, but actually bidding minimum... Just to create a buffer.
To that end, I'll declare that it is now my intention to bid the max amount in all subsequent rounds. . . But for one round, that will be a lie.
GTFO Mike, you're trying to get us to F. ourselves with all that maximum EV BS. Everyone just ignore Mike.Quote: WizardHere are the results for round 4:
Pick Count Percent $1 24 64.9% $3 13 35.1% Total 37 100.0%
I'm impressed by the unselfishness of the group. However, it was at the cost of leaving money on table. 18 out of 37 people could have chosen $3, yet only 13 did. I think you all could gain by a little more selfish.
With that in mind, the choices for round 5 shall be $1 or $4. Picks will due due by 9:00 AM Vegas time on Saturday, Sep. 3.
I would also like to announce that there will be eight total rounds. The dollar amounts have not been decided but the last round will be the grand finale with larger wins.
I honestly belive with just a little bit of effort and coordination we could get more EV, give everyone who's willing play nice would get an even cut no matter what they bid. If someone is worried about the possibility of someone sneaky trying to keep their money we could required members of "the team" to escrow some money.
ANYONE that's on team me me me don't worry about them karma is a bitch (don't believe in actual karma but personally directed intended karma, that's another story)
Per my private prediction there would be a wake up call this time.
I'm actually willing to make some private side bets on the outcomes each week. PM me if anyone is interested.
FYI. There's one person here I actually think is a SP.
Quote: JoemanSo, is the team concept dead in the water? I had such high hopes for a team strategy, but if we can't get even get a simple majority on board, it doesn't look promising.
As did I Joe, as did I...
We were close with 15, but then two bailed when wiz tossed a wrench in the mix.
Quote: mrsuit31As did I Joe, as did I...
We were close with 15, but then two bailed when wiz tossed a wrench in the mix.
Are there any clues about the "charity" option yet? Perhaps the team would be more efficient if a loss meant taking food off of somebody's table... literally.
I'm bidding $1 in round 5, for the 5th time.
If people can't see that it takes all the $1 people to get their $3 or $4, and that ~2 > 0, I can't help them. The only way we get paid is to coordinate and cooperate. And the only way to do that is to agree to equal shares.
PM sent.
Quote: AxelWolfMike can you tell us if the 3 people who didn't pick this time also didn't pick last time? I think anyone who doesn't pick 2 times in a row should be replaced or dropped. It messes up the experiment if people are not partisipating. If they are partisipating but refuse to bid that's one thing, but if they are not partisipating then they should be dropped or replaced.
I tend to agree. Two of the three who didn't pick in round 3 either. The other player I think just forgot or was out of town, so I'll cut him a break.
That said, yes, I'm going to kick out gordonm888 and PeeMcGee for not participating.
In other news, it looks like I'll be out of town Saturday morning so I will be extending the deadline for round 5 to Sunday at 9:00 AM Vegas time.
Quote: WizardI tend to agree. Two of the three who didn't pick in round 3 either. The other player I think just forgot or was out of town, so I'll cut him a break.
That said, yes, I'm going to kick out gordonm888 and PeeMcGee for not participating.
In other news, it looks like I'll be out of town Saturday morning so I will be extending the deadline for round 5 to Sunday at 9:00 AM Vegas time.
I'm in for $1 this round.
I'm just throwing this out there. If this "grand finale" Mike keeps referring to really is $1000 or nothing (e.g. One $1000 bid and all others must be a dollar type deal or similar), if I see it early, I'm bidding the top amount (and will post saying so) and forcing you all onto the team. If I win because everyone cooperates, we all get equal shares(1000 \x players). However, there will be a $1.17 (yes a dollar seventeen) penalty charged to all those who were unwilling to join the team early on. How bout them apples.
No I'm bidding the top amount and will share it all equally. 🐘 🐘 🐘Quote: mrsuit31I'm in for $1 this round.
I'm just throwing this out there. If this "grand finale" Mike keeps referring to really is $1000 or nothing (e.g. One $1000 bid and all others must be a dollar type deal or similar), if I see it early, I'm bidding the top amount (and will post saying so) and forcing you all onto the team. If I win because everyone cooperates, we all get equal shares(1000 \x players). However, there will be a $1.17 (yes a dollar seventeen) penalty charged to all those who were unwilling to join the team early on. How bout them apples.
Quote: AxelWolf[FYI. There's one person here I actually think is a SP.
? Might be a daft question, but what is an SP in this context?
Assuming 35 picks again, for a total of 17 $4 picks available. My pick is $4.
DJT and Ondedear picks counted as well, according to their strategies.
$4 picks still available: 14
Please update this line and put it in your post.
fwiw I can confirm my previous picks (all random so it actually doesn't give you any information)
2nd - Three of Diamonds = $1
3rd - Queen of Clubs, Four of Spades = $3
4th - Nine of Clubs - Four of Hearts = $1
Quote: CanyoneroAgain, whatever team you are in, and whatever strategy you follow, please post your pick.
Assuming 35 picks again, for a total of 17 $4 picks available. My pick is $4.
DJT and Ondedear picks counted as well, according to their strategies.
$4 picks still available: 14
Please update this line and put it in your post.
Since there are so many $4 picks available I'll take one of them. I hate hearing Mike make fun of us for leaving money on the table. Since this will be my second consecutive max selection, I will pre commit to the $1 option for round 6.
If everyone would post their pick, the max win would be available.Quote: WizardofnothingWhy do I need to post my pick?
I too wonder what is an SP....
I pick $1 for round 5, PM sent.
I will pick the high $$ for round 6 unless the team strengthens again.
Cheers!
That makes, at least, three of us.Quote: TwoFeathersATLI too wonder what is an SP....
Sneaky Prick?Quote: DJTeddyBearThat makes, at least, three of us.
Suspicious Person?
Silent Partner.....
Sullen Prostitute!
Secret Protaganist?
SooPoo?
All of the above ;-?
I expect more people will want the higher amount more as it goes up.
So, I will make a high pick of $4 this time, then will probably pick $1 for the rest of the contest.
Quote: TwoFeathersATLSneaky Prick?
Suspicious Person?
Silent Partner.....
Sullen Prostitute!
Secret Protaganist?
SooPoo?
All of the above ;-?
I'm betting on Sock Puppet
That would be Axel! Hard to believe I didn't think of that!Quote: SOOPOOI'm betting on Sock Puppet
Really, I didn't think of Sock Puppet. Couldn't see the forest 'cause the trees were in the way....
And I promise, I wasn't picking on you SooPoo.
That just sort of evolved as it wrote itself ;-)
And Axel's just pissed at himself that he didn't think to put a team of thirty SPs together the day the game was announced ,-)
Or maybe he did.....
