Mosca
Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 10:06:44 AM permalink
Major league roster, and forever: a billion or more to one.

Baseball is much more a skill game than it is an athlete's game. Better athletes than Tim Tebow have busted out of it for lack of ability to hit the ball repeatedly and with authority. The baseball world is full of AAAA guys who hit 300/360/500 in AAA, and 210/290/380 in MLB. Or who go 12-3 with a WHIP of 1.1 in AAA, and 3-16 with a WHIP of 1.54 in MLB.

You pretty much have to live baseball from the time you are about 11 until you are 23 or so, and then when you get called up you have maybe 2-3 years of growing into your prime, and most players are past their prime at 31 or so. For Tebow to think that he can skip 11 years of instruction, muscle memory, training, and his physical prime, and come back to the game at its highest levels, is stupid at best and arrogant at worst, and an insult to every player from the lowest grapefruit league backup catcher to Mike Trout. All of these guys have given their lives to the game, to varying degrees, and Tebow won't be able to carry the equipment bag for the lowest of them. Baseball is hard. Really friggin' hard.
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Mosca
Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 10:19:19 AM permalink
About 12 years ago, I was at a youth baseball camp locally, hosted by the local AAA team, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons, which at the time was the Phillies' top farm club. I was sitting in the dugout with my brother in law, whose son was at the camp, and we were next to Marc Bombard, the manager of the Red Barons.

Out on the field, a young guy (I don't know who) was going through a routine. He had a bat in one hand, a ball in the other, and his mitt under his arm. He took the baseball, tossed it in the air, and then whirled the bat and hit a towering popup, straight up into the sky. He then pulled his glove from under his arm, circled under the ball, and a couple seconds later, caught it. And he did this over and over, never missing the hit or the catch.

Bombard said, to anyone near him, "You see those guys out there? They are the best. The BEST of the best. that is the top one percent of the top one percent of baseball players in the world.... Maybe one, or two of them will make it in the big leagues."

Two of them made it. Chase Utley and Marlon Byrd. The rest, a lot of them had a cup of coffee, but those are the guys who made a career. Baseball is really, really hard.
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billryan
billryan
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August 11th, 2016 at 10:43:31 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

On one hand, Michael Jordan tried BB and failed within a year. OTOH Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders both crossed over. An old saying goes that if you can run fast enough they can teach you to hit and to field the ball, His QB skills might make him a possible for pitcher but then maybe not at his age. Unless he played some baseball at the college level, MLB will be tough.




Thing is Jordan didn't fail. He didn't hit for average but he drove in a lot of runs and was a superior defensive player. If you look back, he left baseball because that spring training the players union was on strike/locked out and the White Sox were putting together a scab team from their minor leagues. He wanted nothing to do with it so he quit. Most scouts were saying with another year or two of seasoning, he'd be an average to slightly above average outfielder.
Chances of Tebow having a successful major league career are off the charts.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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August 11th, 2016 at 11:36:29 AM permalink
Were there other NFL crossover's that didn't make it? Bo Jackson was big, strong and fast. He could hit the ball and play outfield. I think Tebow is very similar. I like his chances of making a MLB roster because he is a gifted athlete.
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
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August 11th, 2016 at 1:31:01 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Were there other NFL crossover's that didn't make it? Bo Jackson was big, strong and fast. He could hit the ball and play outfield. I think Tebow is very similar. I like his chances of making a MLB roster because he is a gifted athlete.

At the MLB level, it's a head game. Remember John Smoltz?
Don't follow baseball enuf to have an opinion on the odds. Follow business a bit, there are business incentives for clubs to, at least, consider giving him a shot.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Mosca
Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 1:52:21 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Were there other NFL crossover's that didn't make it? Bo Jackson was big, strong and fast. He could hit the ball and play outfield. I think Tebow is very similar. I like his chances of making a MLB roster because he is a gifted athlete.



At the time Jackson was called "the best pure athlete in America today" by a scout. No one has ever said that about Tebow. As an athlete Tebow isn't in the same league as Bo Jackson. Tebow has not played organized baseball since his junior year in high school. Bo Jackson did not take 11 years off and then try to play. Bo Jackson was 23, and had just come from playing college baseball for Auburn.

The chance of a first round draft pick (one of the top 30 players available each year) being a successful player is about 10%. The chance of a first round pick of being a superior player is about 15%. The chance of a first round player being a bust is about 75%. (Success Rate of MLB First Round Draft Picks by Slot.) These players are the best of the best each year. None of them took off from the game from the age of 17 through the age of 28.

Tebow's decision to try professional baseball is a stunt to keep his name in the news. If it were any other 28 year old former athlete, it wouldn't have been mentioned. He has no chance at all of playing in MLB.
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DRich
DRich
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August 11th, 2016 at 1:59:44 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Follow business a bit, there are business incentives for clubs to, at least, consider giving him a shot.



Damn it, quit being logical. I was really hoping someone would bet me and offer me crazy odds that he won't make it.
Joeman
Joeman
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August 11th, 2016 at 2:20:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Tebow has not played organized baseball since his junior year in high school.

Yeah, but he hit .494 that year!!! :P
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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August 11th, 2016 at 3:24:05 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Thing is Jordan didn't fail. He didn't hit for average but he drove in a lot of runs and was a superior defensive player. If you look back, he left baseball because that spring training the players union was on strike/locked out and the White Sox were putting together a scab team from their minor leagues. He wanted nothing to do with it so he quit. Most scouts were saying with another year or two of seasoning, he'd be an average to slightly above average outfielder.
Chances of Tebow having a successful major league career are off the charts.



The thing on Jordan was at the time he was the best player in the NBA bar none. To leave that and go to "slightly above average" is not easy. He had to be thinking, "OK, had my fun, do I really want this?" Tebow does not have that issue, he may stick around. Minor leagues will do all kinds of things to sell tickets.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
Mosca
Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:03:54 PM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Quote: Mosca

Tebow has not played organized baseball since his junior year in high school.

Yeah, but he hit .494 that year!!! :P



So what, I hit .400 my sophomore year. It doesn't mean I had potential. I know he was all-state that year, too, but there are guys who are college all-stars who have almost no professional potential, let alone MLB potential. There's a difference between hitting .494 as a high school sophomore, and hitting .494 as a high school sophomore, taking 11 years off, and trying to pick it up again against grown men who have played the game all their lives and who have made it through the the wringer to the highest level of the game.
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