The hoax that is the 1.41% house advantage on pass line bets

Quote: tuttigym

goatcabin: If you put 28 players at 28 tables there odds of success would still be 96.5% against each one. Your analogy or plan would fail. Your speculations as to the success of one of the 28 is just that spectulation.

You are defining "success", apparently, as coming out exactly 244-251, i.e. losing 7 units. As far as I know, that is not the goal of any player. You are still hopelessly confused over the mean of the 1.4%; it is NOT A PREDICTION of any single decision or series of decisions, yet you persist in interpreting it as such.

Quote: tuttigym

Mosca: I will show you my perpetual motion machine when you provide the actual data and documentation that the perfect 495, i.e., 244/251 has been achieved.

What you seem to be missing here is the fact that I know how the 1.41% HA is calculated, and I know that the 244/251 "perfect math" can happen somehow, but that the liklihood of such is so remote as to provide a false promise of reality.

You may know how it is calculated, but you don't understand what it MEANS. Not only that, but you seem to believe that a probability of .035 is a "remote likelihood", whereas it converts to odds against of under 28 to 1.

Quote: tuttigym

So remember when you "teach" your children or grand children the game of craps, and you tell them that the PL/FO bets are the best opportunities to win, make sure to tell them that the 1.41% HA is based on a mathematical calculation that is 96.5% against the reality of ever happening at any time. I am sure that those youngsters will run not walk to the nearest exit.tuttigym

More utter confusion, tutti. The probability of any SINGLE session of 495 passline decisions coming out 244-251 is .0358. The probability of it "ever happening at any time" is about the same as the probability that the sun will come up again tomorrow. By the way, you seem to accept the .035 figure; do you know that it is based on the probability of a passline bet being won of .492929? Whoops!! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: tuttigym

Third, JB, in general terms, what is the liklihood that any given set of 495 PL outcomes will have wins in excess of 251 - very unlikely; somewhat unlikely; likely; somewhat likely; or
very likely??

The probability of more than 251 wins in 495 passline bets, i.e. 252 or more wins, is .25; the probability of exactly 252 wins is just .0277, which, by the way, is the same as the probability of any hardway dice combination, 1/36.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: cclub79

I can't believe this is still raging.

from Wikipedia: "In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response[1] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Among the characteristics of trolls is that they do not present any rational argument of their own.

I asked tuttigym to post his/her belief in the probability of winning any given passline bet. I also ask him/her to answer these questions:

Do you consider it impossible for a player to win one passline bet, and hence be ahead?

Do you consider it impossible for a player to win two of three passline bets, and hence be ahead.

...
...

At what number of bets do you believe it is not possible for a player to still be ahead.

And, finally, what do you believe is the MOST LIKELY outcome for a player making 495 passline bets. Please also provide a rational for your answer.
Thanks,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

And, finally, what do you believe is the MOST LIKELY outcome for a player making 495 passline bets. Please also provide a rational for your answer.
Thanks,
Alan Shank

I can tell you right now, tg's answer is going to be, "All the outcomes that are not 244/251."

Mosca: Almost everywhere I have played, the dice land on the wrong side or upside down, sometimes in the chip trays or against a stack of chips that are wagers on their corners or they actually lean on an edge. However, I am told that some casinos will not allow such and shelter their patrons from the obscene characteristics as above. You must be a visitor to those "G" rated casinos, and that is a good thing.

tuttigym

Cclub79: Picky, picky, picky. I believe I stated that the 7 is rolled 6 ways while all the other numbers combined appear 30 ways. Hammer away, but you need to re-read some stuff here. If I have been unclear, I will clarify hopefully to your satisfaction.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Mosca: Almost everywhere I have played, the dice land on the wrong side or upside down, sometimes in the chip trays or against a stack of chips that are wagers on their corners or they actually lean on an edge. However, I am told that some casinos will not allow such and shelter their patrons from the obscene characteristics as above. You must be a visitor to those "G" rated casinos, and that is a good thing.

tuttigym

And so that means that they will not probably land on a face, because sometimes they don't? 3000 years of dice being rolled says that they will probably land on a face (unless you are a dice setter and can make them land on an edge or an axis, whereupon all probabilities are off).

darnits: I am an old, short, fat, dumpy, guy who does not have 30 years left, and who has better things to do with my time than to chart PL outcomes in groups of 495. Perhaps you could entice the government to give an endowment or grant to do the study to some Ph.D candidate for the completed research. Otherwise, your suggestion is beyond off the wall.

The Wizard is a math professor; maybe he could get some students to do the charting and give us all the results and give the students an "A" for their trouble.

tuttigym

This back and forth seems to be more about your skepticism of probability as a function of mathematics than specifically about the Pass line wager. Perhaps you could tell us, do you believe that 18 out of 38 spins of a roulette wheel must always be Red if we are to believe the Edge in that game, or is your disagreement solely with Craps? If it's just about Craps, then this discussion should continue. If it's about all expected outcomes, then basically we are arguing 2+2.