Evenbob's Roulette Thread
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
It is an ancient Chinese proverb loosely translated
link to original post
No it's not, that's not any more true than Albert Einstein said it. After much investigation the earliest this appeared anywhere was at an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting in Tennessee in 1981 where an obviously anonymous woman said this thing almost word for word. She made it up on the spot. It's very cute and it sounds clever but it's not true.
link to original post
You read it on the internet so it must be true, right? The phrase appears in German literature 100 years before, but if you want to believe some woman spontaneously uttered it at an NA meeting, go right ahead.
Quote: billryan
The phrase appears in German literature 100 years before,
link to original post
Got a link? Yeah I didn't think so.. First you said it was Chinese, Now you say it's German. Make up your mind.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
The phrase appears in German literature 100 years before,
link to original post
Got a link? Yeah I didn't think so.. First you said it was Chinese, Now you say it's German. Make up your mind.
link to original post
Are you familiar with the 19th-century Degeneration movement in Germany? Max Naudsomething? It references doing the same thing over and over hoping for different results.
I'm finding a bunch of things that attribute it to a Chinese proverb but I cant find any older text so it might not be.
I would love to make a bet that you can't achieve a 75% or better hit-rate on an even money bet/50/50 (since you ignore green) situation over 20 guesses.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfIf your game was +EV you could show us the math
link to original post
If you could see how I arrive at when to make a bet you would say, you can't do that! You can't pretend that the outcomes are not random and you can't pretend that you see patterns and trends so you can get a small advantage and make one or two bets. That's cheating, that's immoral, that can't work.
Wanna bet?
link to original post
Also, I would love to make a bet that you can't tell the difference between RNG and live outcomes. You said you can easily and quickly tell the difference. Nope, you can't, that is total and complete BS. If you can do that, then I will believe everything else you say.
Quote: EvenBobYou can point to the math but for the 100th time that math was derived by using random bets against random outcomes so it doesn't apply to what I do.
link to original post
The math of Expected Value doesn't care how random or non-random your bets are, so yes, the math applies to you.
EvenBob is not only unable to win that bet (it's actually not too unwinnable) but he is even incapable of taking such a wager.Quote: AxelWolfI would love to make a bet that you can't achieve a 75% or better hit-rate on an even money bet/50/50 (since you ignore green) situation over 20 guesses.Quote: EvenBobQuote: AxelWolfIf your game was +EV you could show us the math
link to original post
If you could see how I arrive at when to make a bet you would say, you can't do that! You can't pretend that the outcomes are not random and you can't pretend that you see patterns and trends so you can get a small advantage and make one or two bets. That's cheating, that's immoral, that can't work.
Wanna bet?
link to original post
Also, I would love to make a bet that you can't tell the difference between RNG and live outcomes. You said you can easily and quickly tell the difference. Nope, you can't, that is total and complete BS. If you can do that, then I will believe everything else you say.
link to original post
Quote: TigerWuThe math of Expected Value doesn't care how random or non-random your bets are, so yes, the math applies to you.
link to original post
Of course it does. That's like saying the expected value you get from a car race doesn't involve the kind of car you drive. It's totally dependent on the kind of car you drive just like expected value is totally dependent on the quality of the bet you make. The way expected value is calculated is using zero value random bets against zero value random outcomes. As soon as you change the value of the bet the math changes. That's what happened in blackjack with card counting, the quality of the bet changed giving the player the advantage.
Quote: OnceDearEvenBob is not only unable to win that bet (it's actually not too unwinnable) but he is even incapable of taking such a wager.
link to original post
Blah blah blah. There's no way to establish such a bet, no way to effectively do such a bet, but you know this.
Quote: billryan
Are you familiar with the 19th-century Degeneration movement in Germany? Max Naudsomething? It references doing the same thing over and over hoping for different results.
link to original post
Still waiting for a link that says the Germans originated the saying about this definition of insanity. I can find nothing about it anywhere.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearEvenBob is not only unable to win that bet (it's actually not too unwinnable) but he is even incapable of taking such a wager.
link to original post
Blah blah blah. There's no way to establish such a bet, no way to effectively do such a bet, but you know this.
link to original post
Sure there is, but you're chickening out as usual, because you know you would lose.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWuThe math of Expected Value doesn't care how random or non-random your bets are, so yes, the math applies to you.
link to original post
Of course it does. That's like saying the expected value you get from a car race doesn't involve the kind of car you drive. It's totally dependent on the kind of car you drive just like expected value is totally dependent on the quality of the bet you make. The way expected value is calculated is using zero value random bets against zero value random outcomes. As soon as you change the value of the bet the math changes. That's what happened in blackjack with card counting, the quality of the bet changed giving the player the advantage.
link to original post
You'd have to be a very foolish to believe any of what you just wrote. It's all ass-backward. The quality of the bet doesn't give a player an advantage. The player changes the bet because he has an advantage.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryan
Are you familiar with the 19th-century Degeneration movement in Germany? Max Naudsomething? It references doing the same thing over and over hoping for different results.
link to original post
Still waiting for a link that says the Germans originated the saying about this definition of insanity. I can find nothing about it anywhere.
link to original post
Thats not a surprise. I never said the Germans originated the saying. I' said they used it. They might have gotten it from a Chinese fortune cookie. I'm pretty sure a 19th century movement wasn't based on something a junkie said in 1981, but maybe they knew about your binding time and did likewise.
Quote: billryanThe quality of the bet doesn't give a player an advantage. The player changes the bet because he has an advantage.
link to original post
It's just a word game you're playing. The point is bet selection is everything, it's where the game starts and where the game ends. The quality of your bet determines the expected value.
Quote: EvenBobThe quality of your bet determines the expected value.
link to original post
Absolutely, completely, unequivocally, and demonstrably 100% false.
Expected Value=((probability to win) x (profit)-(proability to lose) x (stake) )/Stake
Nothing in that equation has anything to do with the "quality" of your bet.
Quote: TigerWu
Nothing in that equation has anything to do with the "quality" of your bet.
link to original post
That's because the bet they use has no quality, it's random against random. Once the bet quality changes, that changes the expected value of the bet. How could it not! This is a ridiculous conversation, I can't believe we're having it. If we went to a brick-and-mortar casino and played roulette and you were just betting randomly and I was using a non-random proven quality bet, my expected value would be totally different than yours. Duh
Quote: billryanSeeking immediate gratification is an interesting insight into people.
link to original post
The way the casino is set up for instant gratification, it also means if you have a positive EV method you can treat the casino like an ATM. Not something the casino has as part of its business plan. LOL
Quote: EvenBobQuote: billryanThe quality of the bet doesn't give a player an advantage. The player changes the bet because he has an advantage.
link to original post
It's just a word game you're playing. The point is bet selection is everything, it's where the game starts and where the game ends. The quality of your bet determines the expected value.
link to original post
Proper bet selection is important. When there are more bad cards left in a deck, a counter might choose to take a bathroom break. When there are more good cards in the deck, you bet big.
When there are less red numbers on a wheel, you should bet more on black. The problem is that doesn't happen. Unlike in blackjack, the ratio never changes. If you bet black, there are still more ways to lose. If you bet red, there are still more ways to lose.
nothing you can do will change that.
Playing single deck blackjack, if all four Aces come out on the first round, would you agree there can be no more blackjacks in the deck?
That is how past results affect future results in blackjack.
On a roulette wheel, how does the past affect the future? Until you can explain that, your theories are all nonsense.
Quote: billryan
On a roulette wheel, how does the past affect the future? Until you can explain that, your theories are all nonsense.
link to original post
EvenBob Magic 8-ball to answer all your questions:
"Bet selection is everything."
"You have no idea what you're talking about."
"Blah blah blah."
"The casino pays me every damn day."
"The math doesn't apply to me."
"I make non-random bets against random outcomes."
"Duh."
"Show me the math that says I can't do what I do."
Quote: billryanSeeking immediate gratification is an interesting insight into people. I read about a study where they offered a child a choice of one piece of candy now, or two later. The idea is to track the children through their life and see if there is a marked difference in how they turn out. Unfortunately, it will be years before it is finished. Conventional wisdom is the children who deferred will do better, but we shall see.
link to original post
That has to be the stupidest study I ever heard of.
There's just too many factors involved.
One kid could be sexually molested and that changes his whole outlook and direction in life.
Another might win the lottery.
There's too many of life's curveball to make any such study valid IMO.
With his abilities to remove numbers based on past outcomes he can easily change the odds to a +EV Powerball.
Quote: darkozI don't understand why EB doesn't just play the lottery.
With his abilities to remove numbers based on past outcomes he can easily change the odds to a +EV Powerball.
link to original post
I think I can hear the gears in his head turning right now trying to figure out how to make that work.... lol
Quote: TigerWu
"Bet selection is everything."
link to original post
Just stop there, the list stops right there. Bet selection is the god, it's all that counts. Everything else is completely irrelevant if you have the correct bet selection. If you know exactly where to put your money and it's going to give you return what else would you possibly need. Like I keep saying this is not rocket science.
Quote: darkozI don't understand why EB doesn't just play the lottery.
With his abilities to remove numbers based on past outcomes he can easily change the odds to a +EV Powerball.
link to original post
Wow, it's mind-boggling the non grasp you have of what I do if you think the lottery is like roulette. They are so totally different I wouldn't even know where to start.
Quote: billryan
On a roulette wheel, how does the past affect the future?
link to original post
The last spin can have absolutely zero effect on the next spin, how could it be otherwise. Every outcome is totally independent from the last outcome. But that doesn't matter, because you're only using 36 numbers and a zero, sequences are going to repeat over and over and over. And there's only a limited number of sequences if you're looking at 12 outcomes at a time. If you study it long enough it starts to make sense and you start to see ways of making wagers to win one or two units. As I keep saying the big mistake people make is they want it to last longer than that, they want to be able to play and play and play and that's impossible so they give up. Your entire mindset about playing has to change. Get in, get it done, get out. And move on. If I was a tattoo person which I am not that would be the only tattoo I would allow.
Quote: EvenBobWow, it's mind-boggling the non grasp you have of what I do if you think the lottery is like roulette. They are so totally different I wouldn't even know where to start.
link to original post
Well, you equate Roulette with Blackjack all the time, so let's start there....
Quote: EvenBobAs I keep saying the big mistake people make is they want it to last longer than that, they want to be able to play and play and play....
link to original post
How long is too long to play? Is twenty years too long? Asking for a friend...
Quote: billryanCan you keep a straight face when you type this garbage?
link to original post
Is this directed at yourself, you have no indication who you're talking to. I can only assume you're looking in the mirror.
Quote: TigerWu
How long is too long to play?
link to original post
On a session to session basis, too long to play is after you've made your modest goal. If you have no goal you have no right to be playing and deserve whatever happens to you. My wife has a goal when she plays even though she doesn't know it. Her goal is to play until all her money is gone or until the casino closes. And the casino never closes. She almost always reaches her goal.
Quote: billryanBTW I typed Degeneration movement, German, max naudau and got the results in rapid fashion.
link to original post
I did that also and did not see where they used the phrase about the definition of insanity. Please point that out to me.
Of course there are multiple effective ways to set up a bet like this. How long does it take you to find 20 of your best scenarios that allow for a 75% + hit rate? You said it can sometimes take up to 3 days that's about 2 months, give yourself 90 days or whatever, make it worth your time, and bet more than the amount you claim you would normally make in 90 days.Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearEvenBob is not only unable to win that bet (it's actually not too unwinnable) but he is even incapable of taking such a wager.
link to original post
Blah blah blah. There's no way to establish such a bet, no way to effectively do such a bet, but you know this.
link to original post
Quote: darkozIt's hilarious how someone can insist on seeing proof about the definition of insanity but claims his impossible roulette method needs no proof to be believed.
link to original post
EvenBob: "I could show you proof, but you wouldn't believe it, so why bother? The casinos pay me every damn day, that's all the proof I need."
Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDear
But, why would he lie so unbelievably. He could tell small or believable lies. Why would he tell one that is so beyond belief.
link to original post
Once in awhile you actually stumble onto a salient point. I'm obviously not a moron so why would I make up something like this when there are so many better things that I could be making up if that's what I was doing. It makes no logical sense. And for such a long period of time, almost 20 years. If I'm doing it for kicks and grins that obviously would have worn off about 19 and 1/2 years ago. So the only alternative is, I'm not making it up. Duh
link to original post
I’m serious. What evidence do you have to support ‘I’m obviously not a moron?’ Obvious to who? Since you opened that can of worms, what would you call someone who has just made up absolutely stupid stuff for 20 years as you have done? Not even presented cogently. The entire forum, bar none, knows it’s what you have done.
You corrected me on the number of years you have paid your bills from roulette winnings. You have NEVER paid bills with roulette winnings. You know it. I know it. The entire forum knows it. Whatever babble response you will make will be one in a series of literally tens of thousands of nonsensical posts you have made. Why is the only open question….
Quote: SOOPOOYou have NEVER paid bills with roulette winnings. You know it. I know it.
link to original post
I love it when a supposedly well educated person makes declarative statements about something he knows absolutely nothing about. You can guess it, you can assume it, you can fantasize it, you can speculate about it, you can ponder it, but the one thing you can't do is know it. Just like I can't make declarative statements about you. But that doesn't stop you does it, from putting your foot in your mouth all the way up to your hip every time you comment here.
Quote: TigerWu
EvenBob: "I could show you proof, but you wouldn't believe it, so why bother? The casinos pay me every damn day, that's all the proof I need."
link to original post
They actually pay me every time I play, but let's not quibble over details.
Quote: darkozIt's hilarious how someone can insist on seeing proof about the definition of insanity but claims his impossible roulette method needs no proof to be believed.
link to original post
I live in a state where supposedly there's no gold. I have a stream that runs around my property and if I started panning for gold in that stream and I started finding gold, you could give me every reason you could possibly find that I can't be doing that. You could call me insane, you could show me math, but whatever you did it would not stop me from continuing to find gold. Because evidence in the hand wins the argument every time. The casino paying me every time I play trump's any argument you can come up with.
Quote: EvenBobI live in a state where supposedly there's no gold. I have a stream that runs around my property and if I started panning for gold in that stream and I started finding gold, you could give me every reason you could possibly find that I can't be doing that. You could call me insane, you could show me math, but whatever you did it would not stop me from continuing to find gold. Because evidence in the hand wins the argument every time. The casino paying me every time I play trump's any argument you can come up with.
link to original post
???
There's definitely gold in Michigan.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: EvenBobI live in a state where supposedly there's no gold. I have a stream that runs around my property and if I started panning for gold in that stream and I started finding gold, you could give me every reason you could possibly find that I can't be doing that. You could call me insane, you could show me math, but whatever you did it would not stop me from continuing to find gold. Because evidence in the hand wins the argument every time. The casino paying me every time I play trump's any argument you can come up with.
link to original post
???
There's definitely gold in Michigan.
link to original post
EB is setting you up for his "See people said there was no gold in Michigan and now you see they were wrong.
That's why you should believe my roulette claims"
Quote: darkoz
EB is setting you up for his "See people said there was no gold in Michigan and now you see they were wrong.
That's why you should believe my roulette claims"
link to original post
For his analogy to work, he would have to pan for gold, not show or tell anyone how he does it, not show anyone the gold he's found, and refuse to have anyone test his land for gold, yet he would still expect everyone to believe him. On top of that, he would claim he "doesn't pan for gold," he "puts the pan in the water and swishes it around a little bit," and claim he finds out where the gold is using a dowsing rod or some other mystical nonsense. Furthermore, he would then claim he only takes a fraction of a gram of gold out of the stream once a week because if he takes any more someone will shut him down and prevent him from doing it.
Quote: EvenBobBecause 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 in the hand wins the argument every time.
you saying this does not constitute 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚
𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 is something that is shared such as in a courtroom which can make believers out of a jury
nobody has seen what you falsely claim to be 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 therefore it cannot be 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚
your sinking ship of buffoonish claims just becomes more and more inane
from Merriam Webster - the definition of 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚__________"something that furnishes proof"
you have provided nothing that furnishes proof - you have provided 𝙣𝙤 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚
your word is taken by everybody reading your outlandish claims to be false - you know what that makes you in the eyes of those reading this crapola
keep posting - 15 more years or so - you'll never convince anybody who has any common sense
but you will get the attention you desperately crave - you will get to see your name at the top of the page
and I have no doubt that for you - that makes it all worthwhile
.
Quote: TigerWu
I should have said that in Michigan we don't consider Northern Michigan a part of the state. I live in Southern Michigan where there's no gold. "In most cases these finds are minimal" ,But of course you completely miss the point of the post which is extremely not surprising.
Quote: darkoz
EB is setting you up for his "See people said there was no gold in Michigan and now you see they were wrong.
link to original post
"In most cases these finds are minimal," in Southern Michigan. But of course you too missed the entire point of the post which was my intent because I knew you would. LOL
Quote: lilredrooster
you saying this does not constitute 𝙚𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚
link to original post
So what, I have the evidence in my hand and that's all I care about. There's absolutely no way to prove it to you, you've shown that over and over and over. Anything I come up with you will shoot down. I could take you to the casino 25 times in a row and you would still not believe it. This is a guarantee. You would just say it's luck.
Quote: EvenBobSo what, I have the evidence in my hand and that's all I care about.
Then buzz off and stop posting about it.
Quote:There's absolutely no way to prove it to you,
There are plenty of ways, all of which you have refused to do. Some of these were even your own ideas which you almost immediately chickened out of.
Quote:Anything I come up with you will shoot down.
You've come up with nothing to support your claims, so there is nothing for us to "shoot down."
Quote:I could take you to the casino 25 times in a row and you would still not believe it.
Are you offering to take someone to the casino 25 times in a row? I'm sure someone would take you up on that, only for you to immediately chicken out as usual.
Quote:
This is a guarantee. You would just say it's luck.
link to original post
I could offer you $10,000,000 to prove your claims and you would weasel your way out of having to do it. This is a guarantee. Your claims are fraudulent.
I believe AxelWolf actually did offer you a very large sum of money not too long ago...
Quote: TigerWuI can't believe I'm still arguing with someone who thinks they have a 56% edge over the house in Roulette. Someone send help.
link to original post
I don't just think it I can prove it. And if you need help this is the wrong place to get it.
