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pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 24th, 2012 at 4:21:44 PM permalink
Quote: sunrise089

Paco, what's the one-sentence explanation for the Maccau profits? I assume it's MUCH higher average bets. I doesn't seem to be hotel or restaurant revenue, and considering the low number of slot machines I don't know if there can be that many more total players either...



Obsessive baccarat play.

Total number of hotel rooms in Macau is in the low 20 thousand, compared to about 150 thousand in Las Vegas. Stays in Macau are even shorter than Las Vegas, and total visitors are about half as many as Las Vegas. There are just a lot of people who come for the day and play 8 hours of baccarat. Even worse, they treat it like an investment, and they fund a consortium that sends someone to play with your money. So they play a negative expectation game as an investment with no entertainment value. The last idea is the craziest thing I've ever heard. I mean I will concede the fact that some people like to spend two hours playing the big wheel of fortune. I figure that if they find that entertaining, who am I to worry about the House Advantage. But the idea of giving large amounts of money to someone else to play for you is insane.

So, Macau revenue is almost entirely gaming, and 90% is from baccarat.

==================

Incidentally, if I just found data that is ready made to make a point, I would just provide a link to it. A lot of times I pull numbers from half a dozen different places and combine them to reach a conclusion. I have been quoted in the Las Vegas Review Journal well over a dozen times, so I do try to provide some analysis.

Not every time, of course. Sometimes I am clearly just passing on numbers.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 24th, 2012 at 5:12:28 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

and they fund a consortium that sends someone to play with your money. So they play a negative expectation game as an investment.



I see this a lot at Four Winds. They bus the Asian players
in from Chicago and some guy who has $18 worth of
clothes on, has a couple thousand in cash. The local
merchants and businessmen in Chicago's Chinatown pool
their money and make this guy the designated player.
There's always a few others with him to to make sure
he's honest. I suppose they win sometimes but I've
never seen it. They're erratic bettors and what they
do makes no sense.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 24th, 2012 at 5:33:49 PM permalink
Quote: WongBo

Maybe they just watch the game and record the decision and use that information to overcome the house edge.



If they were doing that, they'd be winning more. I've
never seen players lose like bac players do, they lose
it by the bucket full. Thats why Macao is doing so well
with fewer visitors than Vegas. They lose lose lose..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 24th, 2012 at 8:01:27 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Thats why Macao is doing so well with fewer visitors than Vegas. They lose lose lose..



The Macau non-gaming revenue is relatively small, but not non-existent. Macau is up to 28 million visitors last year, compared to Vegas 39 million. Clark County non-gaming casino revenue was $10.76 billion (of which $4.01 billion was rooms). Macau is up to $5.84 billion non-gaming (roughly $200 per visitor).

The true gap is probably wider since Clark county has tourist business outside of the casinos.

But those 28 million visitors to Macau are losing money gambling at $3.2 billion for January 2012. Strip visitors lost about $6 billion in a year 2011 (down from a high of $7 billion).


EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 24th, 2012 at 8:08:23 PM permalink
Somebody told me that, in Macau, if you called gambling 'entertainment',
like they do here, you'd get laughed at. The Asian's consider
gambling to be a very serious business, even though they play
negative expectation games. Thats like saying you consider
flushing money down the toilet to be 'serious business'.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
victorimmature
victorimmature
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
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February 24th, 2012 at 8:40:35 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I am still trying to figure out if Paco is a person or an internet search engine .


Either that or there is more than one of him.
Sure covers a lot of ground.
萬歲言論自由。
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 24th, 2012 at 9:20:38 PM permalink
He's the virtual librarian, like from the Time Machine movie.

He's everywhere and he lives forever.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
andysif
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
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February 29th, 2012 at 6:35:23 PM permalink
SJM HOLDINGS (00880)
Announcements and Notices - [Final Results / Dividend or Distribution / Closure of Books or Change of Book Closure Period]
ANNUAL RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2011
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/mainindex/ipmpnews.asp?id=001359585

- Gaming revenue earned by Sociedade de Jogos de Macau, S.A. (¡¡¡ÓSJM¡ÆØ), a subsidiary of the Company, grew by 32.0% to a record HK$75,514 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA of the Group grew by 42.5% to a record HK$6,923 million.
- Profi t attributable to owners of the Company grew by 49.1% to a record HK$5,308 million.
winmonkeyspit3
winmonkeyspit3
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March 27th, 2012 at 2:54:20 PM permalink
I am still very confused by all of this. I know a lot of players bet very largely and end up busting their bankroll, but all players combined have an unlimited bankroll so wouldn't the casino only make 1.xx% per bet in the long run (more if player is stupid enough to bet the tie)? I believe this is correct as someone previously explained that a slot machine with 100.00% payback would not profit from players busting their bankroll in the long run.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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March 27th, 2012 at 3:03:32 PM permalink
Quote: winmonkeyspit3

I am still very confused by all of this. I know a lot of players bet very largely and end up busting their bankroll, but all players combined have an unlimited bankroll so wouldn't the casino only make 1.xx% per bet in the long run (more if player is stupid enough to bet the tie)? I believe this is correct as someone previously explained that a slot machine with 100.00% payback would not profit from players busting their bankroll in the long run.



No you are not confused. The final return of the casino is the house edge time "the amount bet". But the "amount bet" is many times larger than the "drop" as gamblers normally re-bet their winnings.

It is commonly believed that the casino will make money because they can't go bankrupt, while a player can lose his bankroll. However, that assumption is not mathematically valid.

The key to Macau's huge earnings is the willingness of the average Chinese player to sit at the table and bet and re-bet for significantly longer than the average Western player. Most casinos have the goal of getting a Western player to gamble for four hours a day.

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