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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 4th, 2017 at 10:11:56 AM permalink
04/01/17 Results: -300
 Lakers -100
 Hawks -100
 Suns -100


YTD:
Favorites -4259
Underdogs -1787
Total -6046
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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April 4th, 2017 at 10:19:06 AM permalink
April 1st. was my last day of making picks in the NBA for this season. I am going to turn my attention to that which I have historically done the best, and that is the MLB.

The NBA season ends for me with the following stats:
Favorites------>144 picks made with 91 winners. A win rate of 63.19%. However, a pretty terrible money loss of 4,259. Nothing worth seeing here. Going to completely scrap the way that favorites are picked for next year.

Underdogs------->357 picks made with 102 winners. A win rate of 28.57%. Money lost of 1,787. Looks terrible, but I am somewhat encouraged with the underdog results. It would not have taken much to have been on the plus side of the ledger. Considering the number of picks made, I believe these are some consistent results that probably just need a bit of tweaking. I'll be back next year with this algorithm and hopefully will have found a trend somewhere that I can exploit and turn this into a winner.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 13th, 2017 at 2:43:24 AM permalink
the wizards and celtics play monday night in game 7. the home team has won all 10 games this year, 4 during the regular season and 6 during the playoffs. i saw an early projection of the spread as being celtics -4.5 and my converter would put them at -200 on the moneyline. i'll take it. the wizards have a monkey on their back; a long history of failure in the playoffs.
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 13th, 2017 at 2:44:30 PM permalink
I like the Celts. -6 or better. Moneyline too even though you'll lose some bet value; I just don't think their season ends Monday.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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June 12th, 2017 at 3:26:21 PM permalink
As I've always said, the NBA is a version of the World Wrestling Association.
From an article on Sportsnaut by Jesse Reed:

"The next year, Donaghy alleged the NBA had instructed referees to extend the Western Conference Finals between the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers in 2002, among other instances, as a means to influence how long the series went. Ultimately, the Kings ended up losing to the Lakers in Game 7 after a ridiculously one-sided officiating performance by the refs in Game 6, which the Lakers won.
Many people saw Game 4 of the current NBA Finals as a game officials purposefully controlled so as to extend the series - Draymond Green’s mother included.
And according to Donaghy, that’s going to continue in Game 5 Monday night.

Dohaghy says the officials will probably make sure Green ends up in foul trouble early. He also concludes the NBA is going to do everything in its power to get the series back to Cleveland for Game 6, if not ensure it does everything possible to extend the series to seven games. He points to the ridiculous money ESPN paid for the rights to broadcast NBA games. Obviously, if the series is extended, it means more revenue for the league and the broadcasting company.
Whether you buy that story or not is up to you. However, given the way Game 4 was officiated so much differently than the rest of the series between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, we’re not willing to dismiss Donaghy’s allegations out of hand."
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
michael99000
michael99000 
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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June 12th, 2017 at 3:40:04 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

As I've always said, the NBA is a version of the World Wrestling Association.
From an article on Sportsnaut by Jesse Reed:

"The next year, Donaghy alleged the NBA had instructed referees to extend the Western Conference Finals between the Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers in 2002, among other instances, as a means to influence how long the series went. Ultimately, the Kings ended up losing to the Lakers in Game 7 after a ridiculously one-sided officiating performance by the refs in Game 6, which the Lakers won.
Many people saw Game 4 of the current NBA Finals as a game officials purposefully controlled so as to extend the series - Draymond Green’s mother included.
And according to Donaghy, that’s going to continue in Game 5 Monday night.

Dohaghy says the officials will probably make sure Green ends up in foul trouble early. He also concludes the NBA is going to do everything in its power to get the series back to Cleveland for Game 6, if not ensure it does everything possible to extend the series to seven games. He points to the ridiculous money ESPN paid for the rights to broadcast NBA games. Obviously, if the series is extended, it means more revenue for the league and the broadcasting company.
Whether you buy that story or not is up to you. However, given the way Game 4 was officiated so much differently than the rest of the series between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, we’re not willing to dismiss Donaghy’s allegations out of hand."




This is your chance. Post your pick for tonight , a bet of $6047 on the Cavs +8.5. Boom, your 2016-17 NBA season was a profitable one.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 12th, 2017 at 3:48:50 PM permalink
Steel,

Home ref bias is already in the point spread. That's why home teams normally have -3 points or more when home versus road. It all baked in.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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June 13th, 2017 at 3:17:37 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka



Home ref bias is already in the point spread. That's why home teams normally have -3 points or more when home versus road. It all baked in.



an ex nba ref, an ex con, is saying that the league wanted officials to help the cavs win game 5 to create more revenue.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/06/12/former-nba-referee-says-league-wants-officials-to-help-cavaliers-win-game-5/?utm_term=.405ba2a97fc0
everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 13th, 2017 at 6:03:24 PM permalink
NBA is not fixed. That's all BS. But favorites and home court bias are all real and reflected in the "spread". Steels thoughts that the NBA isn't worth betting isn't supported by those who are good at it. However, I will concede that most quant bettors prefer MLB and NCAA football as easiest to beat. Though some can make the case for tennis and horses. Anyhow the quants are taking over the books just like they've done on Wall Street.

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