Thoroughbred Picks
June 28th, 2013 at 6:39:04 PM
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Today - Arlington Park 7 - 3/5 shot finished off the board, there's another -2 for you.
June 28th, 2013 at 6:49:08 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleToday - Arlington Park 7 - 3/5 shot finished off the board, there's another -2 for you.
Sorry you lost two dollars on the race. That must suck standing in the two dollar line.
Each day is better than the next
June 28th, 2013 at 6:57:07 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddyterapined.....the quickest way to get a feel for "odds on" horses would be to back test thousands of races using the charts. Go equibase.com click on results then click historical charts. You can look at every race going back to 1993 for every track in the country. Tons of data. It's fun to test ideas using the charts.
the cowboys there are all hat no cattle. Don't use Lone Star.
1st off, It only takes a few min to scan the days races. That's about all the time I am willing to put into this. I just wanted to get a feel for the system. You may be right, I compile over a thousand races and may get a positive number. I decided to backtrack Woodbine and Lonestar for the month of may just because I thought I would get lots of data. I was surprised Woodbine came up with nothing. I'll keep going forward for a while because that's todays world, 1993 data may not apply due changes in the sport.
What does "cowboys there are all hat no cattle" mean? Hate to drop lonestar from the evaluation, its given me the most data and data is few and far between. Is there another track out there that has the kind of data I need going forward replacing Lonestar? Large fields, high handle? Todays small fields are pitiful. Wasn't always like this.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 29th, 2013 at 6:44:38 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/28/13
Race # Alternate
1 Mosquillo $1.00 1st
2 Bug Juice -$10.00 3rd
3 Rojo Verde -$10.00 2nd
4 0 $0.00
5 Brewmistress -$10.00 4th
6 Red Rose Cat -$10.00 11th
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Carnival Kitten -$10.00 6th
10
11
-$49.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$170.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$15.40
Arlington Park for 06/28/13
Race # Alternate
1 Mosquillo $1.00 1st
2 Bug Juice -$10.00 3rd
3 Rojo Verde -$10.00 2nd
4 0 $0.00
5 Brewmistress -$10.00 4th
6 Red Rose Cat -$10.00 11th
7 0 $0.00
8 0 $0.00
9 Carnival Kitten -$10.00 6th
10
11
-$49.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$170.60
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$15.40
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 29th, 2013 at 7:31:26 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 06/29/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Courser
3 0
4 Munhall Miss
5 0
6 0
7 Maude S
8 Friendly Banter
9 Paschendale
10 Thus
Arlington Park for 06/29/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Courser
3 0
4 Munhall Miss
5 0
6 0
7 Maude S
8 Friendly Banter
9 Paschendale
10 Thus
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 29th, 2013 at 8:34:28 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddySorry you lost two dollars on the race. That must suck standing in the two dollar line.
Alright, I'm done talking to you now.
June 29th, 2013 at 8:36:15 AM
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I love when Dooley announces Maude S.
"And then there's Maude....Maude S." Cracks me up.
"And then there's Maude....Maude S." Cracks me up.
June 29th, 2013 at 9:19:25 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleAlright, I'm done talking to you now.
How can you say that after he gave you a system that can make you rich ? Oh, don't you have a time machine to go back to the 1950's and 60's ? That explains your bitterness !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
June 29th, 2013 at 9:33:19 AM
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I would have bought Gray's Sports Almanac...
EDIT - Brought, lol
EDIT - Brought, lol
June 29th, 2013 at 9:36:33 AM
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Sounds like a movie plot! But it's time for me to stop talking about the good old days and get back to the future.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
June 29th, 2013 at 12:23:57 PM
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Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
6/27-6/28 8 tracks, only 1 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
6/28 Arlington R7 -2
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 6/28/13 system -10.20 23 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
At over -10 but will continue for a while.
treetopbuddy wants me to exclude Lonestar due to "Cowboys there are all hat and no cattle" I have no idea what that means. Will consider dropping Lonestar from the evaluation and recompiling stats but I need a valid reason I can understand. Also would like a suggestion on a good replacement track.
The suggestion is to now consider races where the 2nd favorite horse goes off at 4 to 1 or longer is absurd. You just don't find races like that. The Stewards just don't want to put out uncompetitive races, 1 great horse and 9 dogs.
6/27-6/28 8 tracks, only 1 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
6/28 Arlington R7 -2
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 6/28/13 system -10.20 23 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
At over -10 but will continue for a while.
treetopbuddy wants me to exclude Lonestar due to "Cowboys there are all hat and no cattle" I have no idea what that means. Will consider dropping Lonestar from the evaluation and recompiling stats but I need a valid reason I can understand. Also would like a suggestion on a good replacement track.
The suggestion is to now consider races where the 2nd favorite horse goes off at 4 to 1 or longer is absurd. You just don't find races like that. The Stewards just don't want to put out uncompetitive races, 1 great horse and 9 dogs.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 29th, 2013 at 2:48:10 PM
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Since Friendly Banter was a scratch, the pick for the 8th. race becomes Tazz.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 29th, 2013 at 4:43:50 PM
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Quote: terapined
At over -10 but will continue for a while.
treetopbuddy wants me to exclude Lonestar due to "Cowboys there are all hat and no cattle" I have no idea what that means. Will consider dropping Lonestar from the evaluation and recompiling stats but I need a valid reason I can understand. Also would like a suggestion on a good replacement track.
The suggestion is to now consider races where the 2nd favorite horse goes off at 4 to 1 or longer is absurd. You just don't find races like that. The Stewards just don't want to put out uncompetitive races, 1 great horse and 9 dogs.
O.K.....horse racing does carry significant variance. No system is immune to losing streaks. It's not unusual to find second pick in this setup to be close to 4-1. It's certainly not absurd as you stated. The bigger the separation between first and second pick the better. If you hit 3 out of 4 races you essentially break even.
The Stewards do not put together races. That job is done by the Racing Secretary. The Condition Book sets races for the meet and is used as a guide by the Racing Secretary. If a horse is eligible for the conditions of the race then he or she may be entered into race. Believe me all horse races are competitive at all levels.
Each day is better than the next
June 29th, 2013 at 4:54:24 PM
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Tree, this system is like so many. Shades of American Turf magazines. I mean you are starting to add things that remind me of the 7 or 8 tie breakers used to make the winners fit the system. Watch for later races, don't bet a particular track, qualify the odds on the second choice, and what next ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
June 29th, 2013 at 5:03:23 PM
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Quote: BuzzardTree, this system is like so many. Shades of American Turf magazines. I mean you are starting to add things that remind me of the 7 or 8 tie breakers used to make the winners fit the system. Watch for later races, don't bet a particular track, qualify the odds on the second choice, and what next ?
Don't argue with him Buzz, he knows more than all of us. The system he gave us was a gift we must cherish.
June 29th, 2013 at 5:53:03 PM
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Quote: BuzzardTree, this system is like so many. Shades of American Turf magazines. I mean you are starting to add things that remind me of the 7 or 8 tie breakers used to make the winners fit the system. Watch for later races, don't bet a particular track, qualify the odds on the second choice, and what next ?
What next?......The horse must have new jockey, jock must be apprentice and one pound over and Christian, first time blinkers, second race off bench 60 day+, Bullet work in 15 moves or more.. 7-10 days before race, front wraps, first off geld, purse 20k+, first time for distance, turf to dirt, auction price 35k+, trainer has two drug hearings, new silks announcement, change in ownership, late jockey change, one gate scratch , shipper, first start on track, off bute, owner is betting another horse, grooms betting the horse, re-shoed before ran, must be sunny day, 100k or more place pool, 4/5 or less in 10 horse races to place.
Found one horse that qualified in 30 years. Paid 2.10 to place so this system produced 5% return.
Each day is better than the next
June 29th, 2013 at 8:01:31 PM
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I won $500 today! $9 contest - Only person to pick a horse to show in 5 consecutive races! Happy day!
June 30th, 2013 at 6:12:05 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 06/29/13
Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 Courser -$10.00 7th
3 0 $0.00
4 Munhall Miss -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Maude S -$10.00 4th
8 Tazz -$10.00 5th
9 Paschendale -$10.00 3rd
10 Thus -$10.00 9th
11
-$60.00
This is worse than trying to pick winners in that Pro Wrestling League known as the NBA.....
Does anybody make money picking horses?
Arlington Park for 06/29/13
Race # Alternate
1 0 $0.00
2 Courser -$10.00 7th
3 0 $0.00
4 Munhall Miss -$10.00 3rd
5 0 $0.00
6 0 $0.00
7 Maude S -$10.00 4th
8 Tazz -$10.00 5th
9 Paschendale -$10.00 3rd
10 Thus -$10.00 9th
11
-$60.00
This is worse than trying to pick winners in that Pro Wrestling League known as the NBA.....
Does anybody make money picking horses?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2013 at 6:13:40 AM
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Quote: steeldcoThis is worse than trying to pick winners in that Pro Wrestling League known as the NBA.....
Does anybody make money picking horses?
Andy Beyer
and of course our resident horse expert treetopbuddy (maybe)
And Finsrule yesterday, Finsrule, how about a little more on your bet yesterday. Was this through twinspire? What track? Is this a bet you make a lot? That's an unusual bet, show 5 races in a row, never knew of a bet like that.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
June 30th, 2013 at 6:37:09 AM
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Arlington Park for 06/30/13
Race # Alternate
1 Tiger Mike
2 0
3 Collin's Smile
4 Hattaash
5 Costly King
6 Delago
7 0
8 Tassie's Rainbow
9 He's Dann Good
Race # Alternate
1 Tiger Mike
2 0
3 Collin's Smile
4 Hattaash
5 Costly King
6 Delago
7 0
8 Tassie's Rainbow
9 He's Dann Good
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2013 at 6:37:39 AM
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OK....who's Andy Beyer?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2013 at 7:34:51 AM
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Quote: terapinedAndy Beyer
and of course our resident horse expert treetopbuddy (maybe)
And Finsrule yesterday, Finsrule, how about a little more on your bet yesterday. Was this through twinspire? What track? Is this a bet you make a lot? That's an unusual bet, show 5 races in a row, never knew of a bet like that.
There is a website - Derbywars.com. (Legal) They have different contests between players. The one I frequent is "Showvivor". They pick 6 races, and all you need to do is pick a horse to show to advance. So for $9 yesterday I competed against like 50 or so people. In the 4th race a bunch got knocked out leaving me and one other person. In the 5th the favorite was off the board and the 2nd favorite placed so I won $500 and the other guy won $100 to complete the $600 prize pool.
They also have standard contests too, where you are getting points for picking win/place. I don't do as well at those, but they can still be fun.
June 30th, 2013 at 7:36:24 AM
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Quote: steeldcoOK....who's Andy Beyer?
Created the most used speed figures. Writer for Washington Post. Terrible at picking triple crown races.
June 30th, 2013 at 4:06:50 PM
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Here's today's results:
Arlington Park for 06/30/13
Race # Alternate
1 Tiger Mike -$10.00 2nd
2 0 $0.00
3 Collin's Smile -$10.00 3rd
4 Hattaash -$10.00 4th
5 Costly King $21.00 1st
6 Delago -$10.00 11th
7 0 $0.00
8 Tassie's Rainbow -$10.00 8th
9 He's Dann Good $0.00 scratch
10
11
-$29.00
Lousy as usual........BUT I did discover something....I think.
If you would have taken all of those picks today and boxed them with the rest of the field in a trifecta then you would have won a net of $16.80
with having to wager $266 in order to win $282.80 (this is assuming that I am doing the math properly since this horse stuff is new to me). So in having seen this I thought I would go back and see what the results would've been. I could only go back to May 31st. since that is as far back as the Arlington Park results go on their website. But WOW......I think that I may be on to something here (again, assuming that I am doing the math correctly).
I would have wagered $4,366.00 to box the field with my picks in each race for $1 trifecta. The winnings would have been $5,079.80. A net win of $713.80!!!
Pinch me...............
Arlington Park for 06/30/13
Race # Alternate
1 Tiger Mike -$10.00 2nd
2 0 $0.00
3 Collin's Smile -$10.00 3rd
4 Hattaash -$10.00 4th
5 Costly King $21.00 1st
6 Delago -$10.00 11th
7 0 $0.00
8 Tassie's Rainbow -$10.00 8th
9 He's Dann Good $0.00 scratch
10
11
-$29.00
Lousy as usual........BUT I did discover something....I think.
If you would have taken all of those picks today and boxed them with the rest of the field in a trifecta then you would have won a net of $16.80
with having to wager $266 in order to win $282.80 (this is assuming that I am doing the math properly since this horse stuff is new to me). So in having seen this I thought I would go back and see what the results would've been. I could only go back to May 31st. since that is as far back as the Arlington Park results go on their website. But WOW......I think that I may be on to something here (again, assuming that I am doing the math correctly).
I would have wagered $4,366.00 to box the field with my picks in each race for $1 trifecta. The winnings would have been $5,079.80. A net win of $713.80!!!
Pinch me...............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2013 at 4:53:59 PM
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Explain what you mean by box with rest of the field. You mean like X / All / All ?
June 30th, 2013 at 4:56:55 PM
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Yes. The horse boxed with everyone else in the field.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2013 at 5:17:13 PM
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Go to equibase and you can go as far back as you want.
July 1st, 2013 at 8:00:02 PM
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Quote: steeldco
This is worse than trying to pick winners in that Pro Wrestling League known as the NBA.....
Does anybody make money picking horses?
Yes I do some days
And the nba is not fixed I'm sorry but the heat bought there team within the rules that doesn't mean it's fixed. Are there bad calls oh yeah real bad calls but it's not fixed sorry.
Btw I'm a nuggets fan
July 2nd, 2013 at 7:55:25 AM
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It may not be fixed, but it sure the hell is weighted towards "stars", and therefore it is not an honest game.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 2nd, 2013 at 4:32:44 PM
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Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
6/28-7/1 8 tracks, only 3 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Churchill 6/30 R10 +.60
Lonestar 6/29 R10 +.60
Parx 6/29 R6 +.40
4 day total +1.40
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/1/13 system -8.40 26 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
The system makes a small comeback, under negative -10. Lets see if the system can inch back to even, will continue evaluation for a while.
6/28-7/1 8 tracks, only 3 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Churchill 6/30 R10 +.60
Lonestar 6/29 R10 +.60
Parx 6/29 R6 +.40
4 day total +1.40
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/1/13 system -8.40 26 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
The system makes a small comeback, under negative -10. Lets see if the system can inch back to even, will continue evaluation for a while.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
July 4th, 2013 at 8:08:34 AM
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Today's Picks (all to win and also to be boxed in a $1 trifecta with the field in the race):
Arlington Park for 07/04/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Peters Rock
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Chica Silver
7 Abby's Slew
8 Zippidy Do Hah
9 J. Pa
10 Dakota Milkshake
Arlington Park for 07/04/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Peters Rock
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Chica Silver
7 Abby's Slew
8 Zippidy Do Hah
9 J. Pa
10 Dakota Milkshake
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 5th, 2013 at 8:01:18 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Peters Rock $8.50 1st
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Chica Silver -$10.00 3rd
7 Abby's Slew -$10.00 5th
8 Zippidy Do Hah -$10.00 9th
9 J. Pa -$10.00 4th
10 Dakota Milkshake -$10.00 4th
11
-$41.50
Trifecta Results:
Race # Trifecta Box Cost
1
2 $12.00
3
4
5
6 $30.00
7 $30.00
8 $110.00
9 $30.00
10 $56.00
11
$268.00 Total Cost
Race # Winnings
1
2 $26.20 5 horse field
3
4
5
6 $21.50 7 horse field
7 $0.00 7 horse field
8 $0.00 12 horse field
9 $0.00 7 horse field
10 $0.00 9 horse field
11
$47.70 Total Winnings
-$220.30 Net
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Peters Rock $8.50 1st
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 Chica Silver -$10.00 3rd
7 Abby's Slew -$10.00 5th
8 Zippidy Do Hah -$10.00 9th
9 J. Pa -$10.00 4th
10 Dakota Milkshake -$10.00 4th
11
-$41.50
Trifecta Results:
Race # Trifecta Box Cost
1
2 $12.00
3
4
5
6 $30.00
7 $30.00
8 $110.00
9 $30.00
10 $56.00
11
$268.00 Total Cost
Race # Winnings
1
2 $26.20 5 horse field
3
4
5
6 $21.50 7 horse field
7 $0.00 7 horse field
8 $0.00 12 horse field
9 $0.00 7 horse field
10 $0.00 9 horse field
11
$47.70 Total Winnings
-$220.30 Net
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 5th, 2013 at 8:58:39 AM
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Today's Picks (all to win and also in a $1 trifecta box with the rest of the field):
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate
1 Death by Chocolate
2 Wayne's Kitten
3 0
4 Silky Sami
5 Flower Spell
6 Can't Stop Ravin
7 0
8 Dani Nikki
9 Che Serai
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate
1 Death by Chocolate
2 Wayne's Kitten
3 0
4 Silky Sami
5 Flower Spell
6 Can't Stop Ravin
7 0
8 Dani Nikki
9 Che Serai
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 5th, 2013 at 3:53:31 PM
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Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
7/2-7/4 8 tracks, only 1 race qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Monmouth 7/4 R7 +.80
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/4/13 system -7.60 27 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
7/2-7/4 8 tracks, only 1 race qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
Monmouth 7/4 R7 +.80
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 8 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/4/13 system -7.60 27 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
July 5th, 2013 at 4:24:31 PM
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I'll be taking my talents to the Twinspires $100 contest tomorrow:
Calder 6-11
Belmont 7, 10
Monmouth 9-12
Any ideas, tips are appreciated.
Calder 6-11
Belmont 7, 10
Monmouth 9-12
Any ideas, tips are appreciated.
July 6th, 2013 at 2:19:00 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate
1 Death by Chocolate -$10.00 3rd
2 Wayne's Kitten -$10.00 6th
3 0
4 Silky Sami -$10.00 4th
5 Flower Spell $3.00 1st
6 Can't Stop Ravin $0.00 scratched
7 0
8 Dani Nikki -$10.00 3rd
9 Che Serai -$10.00 4th
10
11
-$47.00
Trifecta Costs:
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate Trifecta Box Cost
1 Death by Chocolate $20.00
2 Wayne's Kitten $42.00
3 0
4 Silky Sami $30.00
5 Flower Spell $42.00
6 Can't Stop Ravin
7 0
8 Dani Nikki $110.00
9 Che Serai $42.00
10
11
Total Costs $286.00
Trifecta Winnings:
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate Winnings
1 Death by Chocolate $94.40
2 Wayne's Kitten $0.00
3 0
4 Silky Sami $0.00
5 Flower Spell $18.40
6 Can't Stop Ravin
7 0
8 Dani Nikki $157.90
9 Che Serai $0.00
10
11
Total Winnings $270.70
Net -$15.30
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate
1 Death by Chocolate -$10.00 3rd
2 Wayne's Kitten -$10.00 6th
3 0
4 Silky Sami -$10.00 4th
5 Flower Spell $3.00 1st
6 Can't Stop Ravin $0.00 scratched
7 0
8 Dani Nikki -$10.00 3rd
9 Che Serai -$10.00 4th
10
11
-$47.00
Trifecta Costs:
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate Trifecta Box Cost
1 Death by Chocolate $20.00
2 Wayne's Kitten $42.00
3 0
4 Silky Sami $30.00
5 Flower Spell $42.00
6 Can't Stop Ravin
7 0
8 Dani Nikki $110.00
9 Che Serai $42.00
10
11
Total Costs $286.00
Trifecta Winnings:
Arlington Park for 07/05/13
Race # Alternate Winnings
1 Death by Chocolate $94.40
2 Wayne's Kitten $0.00
3 0
4 Silky Sami $0.00
5 Flower Spell $18.40
6 Can't Stop Ravin
7 0
8 Dani Nikki $157.90
9 Che Serai $0.00
10
11
Total Winnings $270.70
Net -$15.30
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2013 at 3:13:41 AM
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Today's Picks (to win and also $1 trifecta box):
Arlington Park for 07/06/13
Race # Alternate
1 Lil Miss Richie
2 0
3 Badger Bay
4 Kipling's King
5 Exchanging Kisses
6 0
7 Ultimate X.
8 Saint Leon
9 Ghetto Cat
10 Kip Berries
11 Dancing Rock
Arlington Park for 07/06/13
Race # Alternate
1 Lil Miss Richie
2 0
3 Badger Bay
4 Kipling's King
5 Exchanging Kisses
6 0
7 Ultimate X.
8 Saint Leon
9 Ghetto Cat
10 Kip Berries
11 Dancing Rock
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2013 at 11:24:24 AM
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Good start. The 1st. race trifecta paid $327.50!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2013 at 12:14:55 PM
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Even Better! The 2nd. race trifecta also hit, this one for $185.90!!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2013 at 1:19:43 PM
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WooHoo!!! The 5th. race trifecta hit for $543.90.....BANNER DAY!!!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2013 at 6:16:24 PM
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Helluva day....$2,851.00 in trifecta net winnings today!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2013 at 6:23:49 PM
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excellent....send donuts to the backside
Each day is better than the next
July 6th, 2013 at 7:16:42 PM
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Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues
7/4-7/5 Ellis - Since Churchill season over, replacing with Ellis which season started 7/4
7/5 9 below tracks, only 2 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
7/4 Ellis R3-2
7/5 Lonestar R5-2
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 9 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/5/13 system -11.60 29 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
Ellis
7/4-7/5 Ellis - Since Churchill season over, replacing with Ellis which season started 7/4
7/5 9 below tracks, only 2 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
7/4 Ellis R3-2
7/5 Lonestar R5-2
Total to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 9 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/5/13 system -11.60 29 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
Ellis
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
July 7th, 2013 at 7:24:40 AM
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Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 07/06/13
Race # Alternate
1 Lil Miss Richie $15.00 1st
2 0 $0.00
3 Badger Bay $68.00 1st
4 Kipling's King -$10.00
5 Exchanging Kisses -$10.00 2nd
6 0
7 Ultimate X. -$10.00 6th
8 Saint Leon $13.00 1st
9 Ghetto Cat -$10.00 6th
10 Kip Berries $0.00 scratched
11 Dancing Rock -$10.00 3rd
Net $46.00
Trifecta Wagers:
Race # Trifecta Box Cost
1 $42.00
2
3 $42.00
4 $20.00
5 $72.00
6
7 $56.00
8 $56.00
9 $56.00
10
11 $42.00
$386.00
Trifecta Winnings:
Race # Winnings
1 $327.50
2
3 $185.90
4 $0.00
5 $543.90
6
7 $0.00
8 $29.30
9 $0.00
10
11 $2,150.40
$3,237.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$302.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win -$57.10
$1 Trifecta Box +$2615.4
Arlington Park for 07/06/13
Race # Alternate
1 Lil Miss Richie $15.00 1st
2 0 $0.00
3 Badger Bay $68.00 1st
4 Kipling's King -$10.00
5 Exchanging Kisses -$10.00 2nd
6 0
7 Ultimate X. -$10.00 6th
8 Saint Leon $13.00 1st
9 Ghetto Cat -$10.00 6th
10 Kip Berries $0.00 scratched
11 Dancing Rock -$10.00 3rd
Net $46.00
Trifecta Wagers:
Race # Trifecta Box Cost
1 $42.00
2
3 $42.00
4 $20.00
5 $72.00
6
7 $56.00
8 $56.00
9 $56.00
10
11 $42.00
$386.00
Trifecta Winnings:
Race # Winnings
1 $327.50
2
3 $185.90
4 $0.00
5 $543.90
6
7 $0.00
8 $29.30
9 $0.00
10
11 $2,150.40
$3,237.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$302.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win -$57.10
$1 Trifecta Box +$2615.4
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 7th, 2013 at 8:04:53 AM
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terepined......appreciate your evaluation of system but you're making a key mistake in calculating results. The wins are being added as a payoff against a dollar and losses are being subtracted as 2 dollar bets. It appears as if your looking at final odds in the chart which reflect payoffs against a dollar not two. So if a loss equals -2 then wins should reflect payouts on 2 dollar bets not on 1 dollar.
Your also taking liberties on which tracks are being used. Remember place pools 100k plus. You are also qualifying horses that don't meet the 4/5 or less standard. You have used horses that have gone off at larger than 4/5 odds. It looks as if your forcing plays. You have to let them come to you. The qualifiers are not that rigorous.
Good job yesterday.....having house money at the track makes for one fun day.
Your also taking liberties on which tracks are being used. Remember place pools 100k plus. You are also qualifying horses that don't meet the 4/5 or less standard. You have used horses that have gone off at larger than 4/5 odds. It looks as if your forcing plays. You have to let them come to you. The qualifiers are not that rigorous.
Good job yesterday.....having house money at the track makes for one fun day.
Each day is better than the next
July 7th, 2013 at 8:18:31 AM
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Today's Picks:
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate
1 Arrested by Duffy
2 Double Silver
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw
5 Brim
6 Ballyjamesduff
7 Kids Game
8 Boss Alley
9 0
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate
1 Arrested by Duffy
2 Double Silver
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw
5 Brim
6 Ballyjamesduff
7 Kids Game
8 Boss Alley
9 0
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 7th, 2013 at 9:01:58 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyterepined......appreciate your evaluation of system but you're making a key mistake in calculating results. The wins are being added as a payoff against a dollar and losses are being subtracted as 2 dollar bets. It appears as if your looking at final odds in the chart which reflect payoffs against a dollar not two. So if a loss equals -2 then wins should reflect payouts on 2 dollar bets not on 1 dollar.
Your also taking liberties on which tracks are being used. Remember place pools 100k plus. You are also qualifying horses that don't meet the 4/5 or less standard. You have used horses that have gone off at larger than 4/5 odds. It looks as if your forcing plays. You have to let them come to you. The qualifiers are not that rigorous.
Good job yesterday.....having house money at the track makes for one fun day.
I appreciate the input and suggestions. The pluses and minus are correct because W P S payouts on the board are always based on a 2 dollar bet. So if place pays 2.40. its a .40 cent profit subtracting the 2 dollar bet. If the race is a loss , its -2.00.
I am taking a bit of a liberty on the 4/5 odds or less so you have a point there. I am considering all horses going off at .90 or less. Thats technically 4.5/5 odds but on the big board, a track will round down the odds to display on the board to 4/5 on any horse going off at .90.
You are absolutely right that I am not checking the handle on place.
I will continue the evaluation but call it "Treetopbuddy system modified by Terapined"
Just doing this for kicks and interested in seeing the results.
If you have any suggestions on tracks to add and drop, I will consider that.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
July 7th, 2013 at 4:21:15 PM
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Looks like another great day. $415.60 in net trifecta winnings today!!
No offense treetopbuddy, but I don't think I need your system...............this is working just fine.
No offense treetopbuddy, but I don't think I need your system...............this is working just fine.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 8th, 2013 at 5:04:47 AM
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Yesterday's Results
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate
1 Arrested by Duffy -$10.00 5th
2 Double Silver -$10.00 2nd
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw $210.00 1st
5 Brim -$10.00 3rd
6 Ballyjamesduff -$10.00 4th
7 Kids Game -$10.00 7th
8 Boss Alley -$10.00 5th
9 0
10
11
Net $150.00
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate Trifecta Box Cost
1 Arrested by Duffy $20.00
2 Double Silver $42.00
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw $42.00
5 Brim $56.00
6 Ballyjamesduff $20.00
7 Kids Game $56.00
8 Boss Alley $56.00
9 0
10
11
Total $292.00
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate Winnings
1 Arrested by Duffy $0.00
2 Double Silver $97.50
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw $444.70
5 Brim $165.40
6 Ballyjamesduff $0.00
7 Kids Game $0.00
8 Boss Alley $0.00
9 0
10
11
Total $707.60
Net Trifecta Win $415.60
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate
1 Arrested by Duffy -$10.00 5th
2 Double Silver -$10.00 2nd
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw $210.00 1st
5 Brim -$10.00 3rd
6 Ballyjamesduff -$10.00 4th
7 Kids Game -$10.00 7th
8 Boss Alley -$10.00 5th
9 0
10
11
Net $150.00
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate Trifecta Box Cost
1 Arrested by Duffy $20.00
2 Double Silver $42.00
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw $42.00
5 Brim $56.00
6 Ballyjamesduff $20.00
7 Kids Game $56.00
8 Boss Alley $56.00
9 0
10
11
Total $292.00
Arlington Park for 07/07/13
Race # Alternate Winnings
1 Arrested by Duffy $0.00
2 Double Silver $97.50
3 0
4 I Turned Outlaw $444.70
5 Brim $165.40
6 Ballyjamesduff $0.00
7 Kids Game $0.00
8 Boss Alley $0.00
9 0
10
11
Total $707.60
Net Trifecta Win $415.60
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 10th, 2013 at 5:26:23 PM
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Treetopbuddy system evaluation continues *
7/6-7/9 9 below tracks, only 4 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
7/6 Lonestar R2 +.60
7/6 Lonestar R4 +.40
7/6 Lonestar R9 +.10
7/7 Monmouth R4 -2
to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 9 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/9/13 system -12.50 33 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
Ellis
* Using horses going off at .90 or less. .90 is technically 4.5/5 but on the big board, track will round down odds to 4/5. If you were at the track and using system and saw 4/5 you would make the bet.
7/6-7/9 9 below tracks, only 4 races qualified. 2 dollar place bet favorite 4/5 odds or lower 10 or more entries. I did not check specific handle but using tracks with traditionally high handles.
7/6 Lonestar R2 +.60
7/6 Lonestar R4 +.40
7/6 Lonestar R9 +.10
7/7 Monmouth R4 -2
to date, 2 tracks Lonestar and Woodbine 5/1/13-5/31/13 and 9 below Tracks 6/1/13 to 7/9/13 system -12.50 33 races
Arlington
Belmont
Churchill
Lonestar
Monmouth
Parx
Hollywood
Woodbine
Ellis
* Using horses going off at .90 or less. .90 is technically 4.5/5 but on the big board, track will round down odds to 4/5. If you were at the track and using system and saw 4/5 you would make the bet.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
