Does anyone here win consistently in craps?
Not necessarily. But if that is your win goal, it just might be the smart move to stop and bank your winnings.Quote: monet0412your up 75 to my 25 does that mean your going to be a winner if we keep flipping infinite amount of flips?
As far as my strategy I play with a big bankroll trying to win small money 10-15 pct of a play. No "system" as to what to do after each bet that is exact every time. The one thing I do all the time is when I'm down a good amount of money over $1000 I'm going to make a large or even all in bet to get back in the game. Most times, assuming I got by the 7 or 11 on the first roll I win. Obviously I win most of the time because if I get by that first roll I am always the favorite. Do I get beat? Of course I do. Sometimes I get destroyed with the 7 or 11's popping up but there will be those days.
But I find it Amazing how the haters can't believe someone is winning. And I'm sure most of you hope the "coin" starts flipping the other way while the rest don't believe what I'm saying anyway.
All I'm trying to do is pass along what has been working. Is it a fluke? Maybe. But I'll keep trying my "hooey" will power strategy as you poo poo the possibilities!
All you have to do is convince your significant other "it's been working." He or she is probably the only one that really cares when it comes down to it.Quote: autocarryBeen playing craps very long 33 years. However I only took pen to paper in Jan of this year. Again played most of my life as a loser right player betting all the number and throwing in proposition bets.
As far as my strategy I play with a big bankroll trying to win small money 10-15 pct of a play. No "system" as to what to do after each bet that is exact every time. The one thing I do all the time is when I'm down a good amount of money over $1000 I'm going to make a large or even all in bet to get back in the game. Most times, assuming I got by the 7 or 11 on the first roll I win. Obviously I win most of the time because if I get by that first roll I am always the favorite. Do I get beat? Of course I do. Sometimes I get destroyed with the 7 or 11's popping up but there will be those days.
But I find it Amazing how the haters can't believe someone is winning. And I'm sure most of you hope the "coin" starts flipping the other way while the rest don't believe what I'm saying anyway.
All I'm trying to do is pass along what has been working. Is it a fluke? Maybe. But I'll keep trying my "hooey" will power strategy as you poo poo the possibilities!
At 100x the house edge on the total money wagered is 0.02 percent; that is as close to 0.0 as anyone will ever get. Putting up an additional amount of money for the odds bet is a decision that can be influenced by several factors, one of them being a feeling of getting something for "free" which is why they are referred to as Free Odds.Quote: odiousgambitat 100x odds,
At 100x the house edge on the total money wagered is 0.02 percent; that is as close to 0.0 as anyone will ever get. Putting up an additional amount of money for the odds bet is a decision that can be influenced by several factors, one of them being a feeling of getting something for "free" which is why they are referred to as Free Odds.Quote: odiousgambitat 100x odds,
Certainly someone who has a huge bankroll should in fact make use of the 100x odds each and every single time, those with a bank roll similar to mine can barely do 1x odds.
Quote: autocarryYeah pretty new to craps. I'm 51 years old and played since 18 I'm new!
but you used the phrase a "don't come bar bet" that raises suspicions on your experience level.
I've not found where he used that term, but it is indeed a term that would raise suspicions although I've seen it in cheapie craps 'textbooks'.Quote: ontariodealerbut you used the phrase a "don't come bar bet" that raises suspicions on your experience level.
Its "Don't Pass" and there is a parenthetical "bar the twelve" comment added pictorially.
Same thing of course with Don't Pass
On these: 7 is a loser, 2 and 3 are winners but the 'twelve' is a 'push' and can be taken down or left riding at player's option.
I have heard people with about a year's experience still misusing the term. Each of the two that I am thinking of were part of the "Terrible's Crowd" and one of the incidents actually took place at the old Terribles. I can't really hold one of those two players in much contempt... I was losing heavily and he tossed my companion two red chips to let her keep playing. Loud, vulgar, ignorant, a bit inebriated but at least generous.
I get why this is often stated, but it irks me all the same. The Expected Loss never changes, as the house edge on the individual bets NEVER changes. It's kind of an "average" of all action, but at the end of the day the Expected Value of a bet + odds is: EV = $X(-.0141) + $Y(0) where the HE for your $Y is your odds, which is a 0 house edge. Thus you're still sitting on $X * the negative house edge of the pass line, 1.41%, which will never change. So if you make a $10 bet on the pass line it doesn't really matter what your odds bet is, for your expected value. For standard deviations it definitely matters because you'll take bigger swings, but EV speaking, it doesn't matter if you bet $10 or $10,000 on your odds bet because it has a 0% HE.Quote: FleaStiffAt 100x the house edge on the total money wagered is 0.02 percent; that is as close to 0.0 as anyone will ever get...
There is no question that mathematically you are correct, but a casino focuses on your TOTAL ACTION. That is why the drinks are free, the rooms are free, etc. The casino focuses on your MONEY, you are focusing on the separate bets. If you tip a dealer, you are helping the casino pay its employees. If your spouse drops ten grand on the slots, they will agree with your analysis of craps bets. Why? Why not? They focus on your money and will not split hairs with you about individual bets or total action.Quote: RomesI get why this is often stated, but it irks me all the same. The Expected Loss never changes, as the house edge on the individual bets NEVER changes. It's kind of an "average" of all action,
Quote: FleaStiffI've not found where he used that term, but it is indeed a term that would raise suspicions although I've seen it in cheapie craps 'textbooks'.
Its "Don't Pass" and there is a parenthetical "bar the twelve" comment added pictorially.
Same thing of course with Don't Pass
On these: 7 is a loser, 2 and 3 are winners but the 'twelve' is a 'push' and can be taken down or left riding at player's option.
I have heard people with about a year's experience still misusing the term. Each of the two that I am thinking of were part of the "Terrible's Crowd" and one of the incidents actually took place at the old Terribles. I can't really hold one of those two players in much contempt... I was losing heavily and he tossed my companion two red chips to let her keep playing. Loud, vulgar, ignorant, a bit inebriated but at least generous.
page 9,7th post down.
It's ok, there's help for that.....Quote: autocarryI've played 101 days of craps since 1/25/17 that in itself is more than most of this board has played in the last few years!
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/
Quote: FleaStiffI've not found where he used that term, but it is indeed a term that would raise suspicions although I've seen it in cheapie craps 'textbooks'...
Its "Don't Pass" and there is a parenthetical "bar the twelve" comment added pictorially.
Same thing of course with Don't Pass...
what IN tf is the big issue?!
sheesh.
sure the bet is technically don't pass or don't come but virtually every layout in the country shows "don't pass bar 12 (or 2)" ...you experienced craps language police are way over the top with this.
it is TOTALLY rational and understandable to say "don't pass bar 12" when it is right there in front of you and you "experienced" elitists have seen it a million times...
you deem saying it indicates a wetness behind the ears but have been proven wrong in that by replies right on this thread as well as by others saying it that you know to have experience.
i realize that some of you are typing just to hear yourself type---hell, that's pretty much all i do myself---but...
...jeezuz, get real.
tom p
am interested in seeing the continuation and reporting of his journey, and I do wish him all the luck & success he can find, however it plays out
(and I probably spent way to much time reading it all, but enjoyed it, I am a tormented soul, and eternal optimist in spirit, trapped in a mathematical body/mind, but I always root for people to be successful in their chosen path, very least, wish them to be happy trying it)
the large high win %, (80% area) is probably a result of his large catch up bets when down, this would pull the outcomes towards a parley or martingale strategy over time
Quote: charlestfullerI've taken down enough data to show a pretty good track record over the past 6 months. Leave with more than I came with about 75% of the time.
frankly i do not believe that the question "does anyone here win consistently at craps?" is the right question.
charles' post here is illustrative of why winning consistently is not all that uncommon.
so i am told/have read, there are certain martingale-based strategies where one wins over 90% of the time (i have seen as high as 99%)...one could not deny that that is winning "consistently"...this is of course different than actually winning at craps and in fairness many authors of such claims do go on to correctly clarify that this is not only not the same as winning at craps but also, to the nub of it, that their strategy is no hiccup in random and are far from "beating the game" - and why.
a better question then might be simply "are you winning at craps"?
of course except for a tiny minority who keep actual, accurate track, any answers would be under the heavy thumb of "gamblers' perception", which while only very rarely dishonest, is almost always inaccurate.
tom p
Quote: Romes...So you see, it's quite plausible you could be up due to your odds bets... but in "the long run" (not sure for craps but a safe bet is like a couple hundred thousands bets) you're going to lose. Mathematically guaranteed.
Inaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.
Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"
your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.
simulations have shown that, given low enough -ev bets (essential) that even after a million rolls by 10,000 shooters, almost 5% were ahead...some as little as a dollar ahead maybe, but ahead...this was pass line with double odds only...betting only the 6 (or 8) over 2% were ahead...betting the hard 6, zero percent, none, nada were ahead.
the math guarantees some minuscule number of long run winners given sufficiently tough bets.
tom p
Quote: Romes...So after ONE MILLION Don't Pass / Don't Come bets (no odds) it would be mathematically IMPOSSIBLE for you to be up...
impossible? nonsense.
setting aside the inapt aphorism that "anything is possible", it is only your ignorance (as in ignoring) of probability variance that would lead you to say "impossible"
it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.
tom p
What is rational and understandable is that which is the correct and proper terminology. The bar twelve is parenthetical and the bet is Don't Pass.Quote: betwthelinesit is TOTALLY rational and understandable
The worst is those who say 'Don't Pass Bar" which is what I actually read in some hastily written craps manual and actually heard uttered at Terribles.
Its not eliteism its just a matter of civilization or rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses.
I wrote elsewhere that it certainly seems possible there would be a number of well heeled players somewhere playing Craps frequently, daily even, without setting dice or cheating, for decades at 10x or higher free odds who would be ahead. However, I say they do not actually exist because no one can tolerate the daunting swings. They go on to other games and ways of playing, usually dreaming up ways of hedging to stay sane .
Quote: FleaStiffWhat is rational and understandable is that which is the correct and proper terminology. The bar twelve is parenthetical and the bet is Don't Pass.
The worst is those who say 'Don't Pass Bar" which is what I actually read in some hastily written craps manual and actually heard uttered at Terribles.
Its not eliteism its just a matter of civilization or rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses.
Flea,
I myself will never claim perfection in the posts I write, but I try to use correct grammar and proper terminology. You are correct that most craps players -- by convention -- use the term, "Don't Pass" for that bet. So some players (and apparently some gaming authors, as you note) refer to the bet as, "Don't Pass Bar" or "Don't Pass Bar 12." I would not be surprised if someone chooses to use the less-favored term because it consistently reminds them of the difference between Pass and Don't Pass bets (or for some other, personal reason). Certainly not the worst imho.
However, I think it is a LOOONG stretch to suggest such players are less civilized or stupid, and to consign them to the "great unwashed teeming masses." All concerning how one refers to a Don't Pass bet?
Then, after giving us a lecture such as yours, your next post tells us:
Quote:... after a million bets severa players might well be in the plus column ...
Really, sir. Correct and proper indeed! You certainly have a right to your opinion, but I, for one, question your credentials to criticize in the manner you have.
In short, there is God, then there is me, then there is the great unwashed teeming masses, except on such occasions as I doubt the existence of God and then it is simply me versus the great unwashed teeming masses. The later condition tends to also occur prior to my morning coffee and on mornings that I have to arise at an utterly ungodly hour to get the garbage out to the curb.
As to the missing "l" in several, you will have to contact the Internet Gremlins who plague my keyboard and mouse and who will no doubt one of these days drive me to sobriety. Or, even worse, to humility.
Quote: betwthelinesInaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.
Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"
your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.
simulations have shown that, given low enough -ev bets (essential) that even after a million rolls by 10,000 shooters, almost 5% were ahead...some as little as a dollar ahead maybe, but ahead...this was pass line with double odds only...betting only the 6 (or 8) over 2% were ahead...betting the hard 6, zero percent, none, nada were ahead.
the math guarantees some minuscule number of long run winners given sufficiently tough bets.
tom p
No, not realistically, not on this world anyway. I would bet you $100 and give you a trillion to one odds for a straight don't pass/don't come with no odds.
With a probability of -.01363636 and a standard deviation of .9859 you simply need Excel to help you figure this out for a don't pass / don't come with no odds.
At 10,000 rolls you are expected to be down 136.364 units with a standard deviation of 98.59 units. To be ahead you have to be 1.383 standard deviations above that which carries a probability of 8.331%. This represents about 167 hours of play which might approximate a weekly gambler's activity over a four hour session.
At around 28,289 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 1%.
At around 49,917 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 0.1%
At around 72,295 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 0.01% (1 in 10,000)
At around 95,078 rolls your probability of being even or ahead hits 0.001% (1 in 100,000)
At 118,108 rolls you're at 1 in a million with an expected loss of 1,610 units and a deviation of 338.82 units or 4.753 standard deviations
At 188,041 rolls you're a 1 in a billion.
At a measly 208,589 rolls you're at 1 in 7.5 billion (this planet's population)
At 250,000 rolls you are expected to be down 3,409.09 units with a standard deviation of 492.95. To be ahead you would have to be 6.9156 standard deviations above that which carries odds of 429,568,831,000 give or take a billion to one.
At 324,065 rolls my excel calculator gives out on me at 7.873741 deviations and odds of 1 quintillion to 1.
At 1,000,000 rolls you are expected to be down 13,636.4 units with a standard deviation of 985.9. That means to be even you would have to be 13.83 standard deviations better than that which I would say is damned impossible.
-----------------------------
Now, take the same better doing 3-4-5 odds which has a standard deviation of 4.915632 and an Expected value of -.14141.
At 10,000 trials (pass + come), the expected loss is 141.41 units (assuming the bettor takes max odds on all bets) but has a standard deviation of 491.52, meaning that the player has a 38.68% chance of being ahead after 10,000 trials.
At 1,000,000 trials (pass + come) under this scenario the expected loss is 14,141.41 units with a standard deviation of 4,915.62 and a probability of being ahead at 0.201%.
Nifty!
Quote: betwthelinesInaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.
Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"
your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.
simulations have shown that, given low enough -ev bets (essential) that even after a million rolls by 10,000 shooters, almost 5% were ahead...some as little as a dollar ahead maybe, but ahead...this was pass line with double odds only...betting only the 6 (or 8) over 2% were ahead...betting the hard 6, zero percent, none, nada were ahead.
the math guarantees some minuscule number of long run winners given sufficiently tough bets.
tom p
For the hardways you are looking at a variance of 2.8748 and a EV of .09090. plugging that in I hit the 1:1,000,000 threshold at 22,595 trials.
At pass with double at 1,000,000 rolls (not trials) you are looking at variance of 2.85788 and an EV of -.0141414. The odds of you being even/ahead after 1,000,000 rolls are 282.6:1.
Quote: GWAEI sometimes always win too.
60% of the time....it works every time
Damn I wish we could embed YouTube videos here.
Quote: FleaStiffWhat is rational and understandable is that which is the correct and proper terminology. The bar twelve is parenthetical and the bet is Don't Pass.
The worst is those who say 'Don't Pass Bar" which is what I actually read in some hastily written craps manual and actually heard uttered at Terribles.
Its not eliteism its just a matter of civilization or rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses.
of course it is elitism.
at least i assume--i think correctly--that you are not including yourself amongst the "rank utter stupidity of the great unwashed teeming masses."
why of course not: rather you are among the others: the fortunate elite.
don't pass bar 12 (or 2) is not only descriptive but completely prevalent visually throughout the entire world of bank craps ...hardly stupid...unarguably accurate....
...but since we are not dealing with discernible fact but merely with simple opinion, we have 2 choices: we can either agree to disagree as to what is "proper terminology" or resort to name calling and casting aspersions upon the content of each other's characters.
i prefer the former.
tom p
Quote: FleaStiffNo after a million bets severa players might well be in the plus column, though not necessarily if you include the price of their time.
that simply goes without saying...hell, tips alone can eat up any actual winnings.
too as mentioned, some of those "ahead" might be a little as a dollar ahead...it's just that ahead is ahead.
no, don't be silly, no one is claiming that anyone is making a living at bank craps or even a "profit" at it...on the bets themselves however, given tough enough play, a tiny, tiny fraction will be ahead---and in the real world very much less than the near 5% of our simulations since virtually no one bets as tough as only pass and 2x odds exclusively over a million rolls...lol...in the real world those occasional hard 8s and fire bets etc will eat into that actual number of fortunates...closer to 1% is my guess.
my whole point was that usage of words like "impossible" is in error....their use as "hyperbole" might be forgiven in certain contexts however...lol...
tom p
Lol. Ofcourse. The owner of the table makes money and the members of the Tip Pool make money. The players do not consistently make money. Its their entertainment and its a source of "free" drinks and an occasional winning session which keeps them coming back for more.Quote: Lucca3927I was at a crap table nearly every day for over a year and never had a single losing session. I was a base dealer/stickman and always left the table with more money than I came in with.
Years ago there was a guy tweeting about all his winning sessions at various table games but it seems someone tracked him down to a low stakes poker table at Stations where he no doubt bet the money he was making selling his table games system to fellow tweeties.
You've met this guy. It's a franchise.
Because it's easier to post photos on FB, I posted a big win, which started a long conversation about craps.
If interested: https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1521161934572667&id=100000366244396&set=gm.10155522894408476&source=48
Quote: DJTeddyBearSomewhat unrelated...
Because it's easier to post photos on FB, I posted a big win, which started a long conversation about craps.
If interested: https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1521161934572667&id=100000366244396&set=gm.10155522894408476&source=48
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Quote: TimesharemoochI have a system that, I will admit, isn't particularly scientific or has a basis in mathematics, but it works. There is a player at the table, and you've all met him, who keeps bitching and moaning, chasing his losses, and signing marker after marker all in an attempt to get even. More often than not he's acting in an inappropriate manner and has had a few to many. Now, since you know this guy is eventually going to go down the toilet and lose it all you just need to bet the opposite, whatever it may be. Play the field when he doesn't. Bet the don't when he's on the pass line, etc.
You've met this guy. It's a franchise.
Sounds like the Florence Johnston method: always bet against the cockiest person at the table. It's named for its inventor - Florence the maid on an episode of The Jeffersons.
Quote: ThatDonGuySounds like the Florence Johnston method: always bet against the cockiest person at the table. It's named for its inventor - Florence the maid on an episode of The Jeffersons.
Now there is a craps system that makes sense. I love it!
Quote: ThatDonGuySounds like the Florence Johnston method: always bet against the cockiest person at the table. It's named for its inventor - Florence the maid on an episode of The Jeffersons.
You get the same feeling in PaiGow. Happened to me last week, and as always I was too dumb to believe it.
Everyone's betting $25 - $40/hand. Player comes in, buys in for $1000, bets $450 with $50 on the fortune. Dealer gets something stupid like a straight with a pair. Lose.
Puts another $500 down. Dealer gets three pairs, kings up top, lose. Cashes in another $500. Dealer gets a pair with some low cards up top. Player has a pai gow. Lose. Puts in another $500. Decides that their spot is crap, side bets another player for another $500. Dealer draws a full house. Lose.
Player leaves to the other table, dealer has 3 pair. Our dealer gets reasonable and deals a couple of low pair and a pai gow. Player comes back and dealer deals herself 3 pair. Lose.
Happens all of the time. And it seems like just because of player attitude and storm clouds gathering somewhere that it is going to be bad.
Yet I know that this is just bad luck.
Quote: boymimboQuote: ThatDonGuySounds like the Florence Johnston method: always bet against the cockiest person at the table. It's named for its inventor - Florence the maid on an episode of The Jeffersons.
You get the same feeling in PaiGow. Happened to me last week, and as always I was too dumb to believe it.
Everyone's betting $25 - $40/hand. Player comes in, buys in for $1000, bets $450 with $50 on the fortune. Dealer gets something stupid like a straight with a pair. Lose.
Puts another $500 down. Dealer gets three pairs, kings up top, lose. Cashes in another $500. Dealer gets a pair with some low cards up top. Player has a pai gow. Lose. Puts in another $500. Decides that their spot is crap, side bets another player for another $500. Dealer draws a full house. Lose.
Player leaves to the other table, dealer has 3 pair. Our dealer gets reasonable and deals a couple of low pair and a pai gow. Player comes back and dealer deals herself 3 pair. Lose.
Happens all of the time. And it seems like just because of player attitude and storm clouds gathering somewhere that it is going to be bad.
Yet I know that this is just bad luck.
Had a guy losing bad at our blackjack game once only for him to leave and hit the roulette table next to us. He bets all of his money, half on red and half on black, yells out "now I can't lose", and sure enough 00 hits and he storms off PO'd.
That's funny, because I showed my math with Standard Devaitions, which are the square root of the variance. So no, you're wrong, I directly took variance in to account. You should learn how to math a little better perhaps. Guaranteed is definitely the correct verbiage, and if you disagree, we can always make a wager and let our money do the talking.Quote: betwthelinesInaccurate. "guaranteed" is simply the wrong word.
Correct alternatives include "expected" or "likely", or more accurately, "extremely, extremely likely"
your math is dealing only in expectation and ignoring the equally valid probability mathematics concept of variance.
lol... Instead of even referring to my own math, I'll refer you to Page 13 where boymimbo posted some math for you to look at as well. After 1 million roles, yes, it's impossible, and I GUARANTEE you will be down. Again, if you disagree, let's make a bet and let our money figure it out =D.Quote: betwthelinesimpossible? nonsense.
setting aside the inapt aphorism that "anything is possible", it is only your ignorance (as in ignoring) of probability variance that would lead you to say "impossible"
it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.
tom p
Quote: RomesThat's funny, because I showed my math with Standard Devaitions, which are the square root of the variance. So no, you're wrong, I directly took variance in to account. You should learn how to math a little better perhaps. Guaranteed is definitely the correct verbiage, and if you disagree, we can always make a wager and let our money do the talking.
lol... Instead of even referring to my own math, I'll refer you to Page 13 where boymimbo posted some math for you to look at as well. After 1 million roles, yes, it's impossible, and I GUARANTEE you will be down. Again, if you disagree, let's make a bet and let our money figure it out =D.Quote: betwthelinesimpossible? nonsense.
setting aside the inapt aphorism that "anything is possible", it is only your ignorance (as in ignoring) of probability variance that would lead you to say "impossible"
it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.
tom p
To be clear, on a zero odds bet like pass or don't pass (no odds) it is guaranteed you'll be down after 1,000,000 rolls.
3-4-5 odds you could be ahead, though very unlikely. The variance at 5 allows for a variance of one SD at 5,000 +/- 1,000,000 trials and an expected value of being down -14,141 or -13,640 depending on which way you're going. So, after 1,000,000 trials (assuming pass + come with full allowable odds) you could be ahead as you are less than 3SD.
Quote: RomesThat's funny, because I showed my math with Standard Devaitions, which are the square root of the variance. So no, you're wrong, I directly took variance in to account. You should learn how to math a little better perhaps. Guaranteed is definitely the correct verbiage, and if you disagree, we can always make a wager and let our money do the talking.
lol... Instead of even referring to my own math, I'll refer you to Page 13 where boymimbo posted some math for you to look at as well. After 1 million roles, yes, it's impossible, and I GUARANTEE you will be down. Again, if you disagree, let's make a bet and let our money figure it out =D.Quote: betwthelinesimpossible? nonsense.
setting aside the inapt aphorism that "anything is possible", it is only your ignorance (as in ignoring) of probability variance that would lead you to say "impossible"
it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.
tom p
simulations show you wrong.
if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose.
while i do recall seeing your math post, i just now cannot find it and after a relatively extensive search too....what page is it on?...quite sincere here, keen to see it again...you are certainly correct that i am no math whiz...lol...
one irony here is that i, myself have actually rolled out ---one at a time---what ended up 1,000,051 rolls, starting decades ago and initially with casino dice rolled into a felt-lined box with great care taken to insure randomness but later using wingcraps (about 90% of it)....playing Tough Craps i was vicariously $21,181 ahead...ONE TRIAL!! over 800k rolls into the second mil results are not so sanguine!...lol...i have contemporaneous records that show this.
now admittedly Tough Craps carries a slightly lower HA than goatcabin's pass with 2x odds only simulations---i estimate about 3x - 4x odds average---and is much more volatile (a thing, like everything, really, that "comes out in the wash" with a sample of a mil...lol) with usually 3, sometimes even 4 come bets in addition to the pass....TC's uber-aggressive betting gambit also comes out in the wash with a mil sample.
it is true too that we need not even use odds for you to lose your bet....goatcabin's similar 10k trials using only place 6, which carries an even higher HA than the line bets, indicated almost 2% still ahead after a mil...yes, the bets do need to be sufficiently tough: his hard 6 only trial showed zero of 10,000 ahead after a mil.
that with these parameters it is ["impossible" for some tiny fraction to be ahead borders on ludicrous....just as that tiny fraction of coin flippers winning $0.99 while his opponent wins $1,00 upon a win can be ahead after a million flips.
your erroneous contentions might also very well be highly intuitive but as with most things intuitive regarding probability, cf craps, it is in error (see any probability 101 text for a multitude of examples).
tom p
But what if I play 100 play craps?Quote: boymimbo
To be clear, on a zero odds bet like pass or don't pass (no odds) it is guaranteed you'll be down after 1,000,000 rolls.
(People who read VCT will get that)
Okay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet $500-$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come (since that's the focus of our bet). You must complete 25,000 points. Since it takes ~8.5 rolls to resolve a point, that's approx 213,000 rolls of the dice. If you roll 6 times per minute (minimum restriction - you can throw faster if you want) that's 360 roles per hour. That would take approximately 590 hours or about 59 days of playing 10 hours per day (so about 2 months).Quote: betwthelines...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...
You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake! Well worth a few years of ones salary... Your -EV is only -$176,250 (if you flat bet $500)... BUT you COULD get lucky as you propose and you could be UP at the end! So it's CLEARLY worth your time to come win a few hundred thousand off me, right???
Probably one of the following permalinks, or in conjecture with multiple others posting mathematical facts in this thread:Quote: betwthelineswhile i do recall seeing your math post, i just now cannot find it and after a relatively extensive search too....what page is it on?...quite sincere here, keen to see it again...you are certainly correct that i am no math whiz...lol...
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/27868-does-anyone-here-win-consistently-in-craps/7/#post592881
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/27868-does-anyone-here-win-consistently-in-craps/7/#post593353
..."Extensive Searching" found these in about 1-2 minutes clicking back to earlier pages of this thread.
Quote: RomesOkay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet $500-$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come (since that's the focus of our bet). You must complete 25,000 points. Since it takes ~8.5 rolls to resolve a point, that's approx 213,000 rolls of the dice. If you roll 6 times per minute (minimum restriction - you can throw faster if you want) that's 360 roles per hour. That would take approximately 590 hours or about 59 days of playing 10 hours per day (so about 2 months).Quote: betwthelines...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...
You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake! Well worth a few years of ones salary... Your -EV is only -$176,250 (if you flat bet $500)... BUT you COULD get lucky as you propose and you could be UP at the end! So it's CLEARLY worth your time to come win a few hundred thousand off me, right???
Romes, you have put yourself in the place of those who refuse to put their money where their mouth is around here, but you are one of a kind in this regard: you are the one who is saying "you won't bet me"
You are taking on the claim that "some" will be lifetime winners at Craps - especially if free odds are involved - then proposing to disprove it by saying "I bet this one individual fails"
Bravely saying "I'll be the house" and "you the player" in order to settle the matter too. What a guy!
PS: how about resolving the bet by doing a simulation - one done by someone both trust. If it is claimed that 2% of players are still ahead after 1 million rolls, then the simulation can be for 100 players. But it should not be for "one player" at basically an even bet. Come on.
a single individual's chances are not good, trueQuote: TimesharemoochYou might have a winning session, or even a 100 of them, but the math will eventually catch up to you
the claim I believe is that out of a large number of people, some will be lifetime winners, no matter how arduously you define 'lifetime' [as long as you don't go into ridiculous possibilities], along with other parameters which did not, I don't believe, have the free odds as low as 1x! . I have maintained that the reason you and I do not seem to know of the existence of such people is for other reasons.Quote:and make the kill.
wins 112 loses 29=79.4%
The most down during this time $11460 which was on day 11
The most up was day 100 +18945
After that high dropped to a low of plus $4671
currently I'm at a plus of $15330
So with the high point of +18945 coming on June 17, 2017 I've been down everyday since that time which is 41 days of play.
Again the plus $15330 is after I take out fuel and tolls. I'm happy I'm up but disappointed in the fact I haven't progressed past my high which took place almost 2 months ago.
Most of my play happens at Yonkers and I'm doing very well at Yonkers which has "bubble machines" with 3,4,5 time odds. I've played about 20 times at "real casinos" mostly in AC but also at Sands Bethlehem, Hollywood Casino in Harrisburg, area PA, and one time up in Buffalo. I'm actually down about $3000 in "real dice" games.
A reply to an earlier comment is Yes, when I'm down a good chunk of my bankroll ($1000 or so on a $3000 bankroll) I will push all in or push in a good bit to try to get back in the game. Obviously I've lost some of those but have won many more than I've lost. My usual downfall in a large bet will be getting crushed on a 7 or 11 on that opening roll. When those happen and sometimes in a row I tend to walk out a loser.
Quote: autocarrywins 112 loses 29=79.4%
AC,
Thanx for sharing the update. You clearly understand that you are David struggling against Goliath. In spite of the odds being against you, you are staying well ahead. Most impressive. Best wishes for continued success.
