betwthelines
betwthelines
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 171
Joined: Jan 2, 2015
August 10th, 2017 at 5:32:32 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

Quote: betwthelines

...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...

Okay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet $500-$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come...

...You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake!...


LOL...no we're not...

good one, though!

tom p

"Everybody's funny...you funny too"
--.john lee hooker, House Rent Blues, 1971
"You can't EXPECT to win. But you CAN play Tough"...tom p, 1974
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
Thanked by
DeMango
August 10th, 2017 at 5:48:18 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

PS: how about resolving the bet by doing a simulation - one done by someone both trust. If it is claimed that 2% of players are still ahead after 1 million rolls, then the simulation can be for 100 players. But it should not be for "one player" at basically an even bet. Come on.


Ayyyy I can't do math but I can write code, not sure I qualify as trusted but you guys can look at the source.

I wrote a simple simulator that bets 1 unit on passline with 1x odds using a crypto quality RNG. Here was the results for 1,000,000 bet resolutions for 100 players.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Results Among 100 Players Over 1000000 Bets Resolved
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Rolls: 3375294.84
Units: -83891.09
7/11 Win: 22.22392600%
Craps Lose: 11.11201600%
Point Win: 27.06786100%
7 Out: 39.59619700%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most Units: -78862
Least Units: -88532

Here's the code. Not my best work (lol global variables), but I just threw it together quickly. I do think it's accurate, but I'm sure someone can let me know how those numbers look -vs- what's mathematically expected.

https://pastebin.com/fPXYJwTz

Edit: -83k seems high, I prob messed something up I'll check it tomorrow
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Aug 10, 2017
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 10th, 2017 at 10:43:41 PM permalink
OK I fixed it. There was a type casting error. Here's the updated code: https://pastebin.com/4w0J3Zjx

And updated results.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Results Among 100 Players Over 1000000 Bets Resolved
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Rolls: 3376016.91
Units Wagered: 1666773
End Units: -14355.419
7/11 Win: 22.21494700%
Craps Lose: 11.10767100%
Point Win: 27.07159400%
7 Out: 39.60578800%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most Units: -9675.5
Least Units: -20048.6

There you have it. One hundred players, 1 million passline bets each, zero winners, and an average loss of -14355.419 units on a wager with a house edge of 1.41%, WHO WOULD HAVE THUNK IT
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Aug 11, 2017
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22279
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
August 10th, 2017 at 10:53:01 PM permalink
Quote: autocarry

Trying to get enough ahead to say what I'm doing works long term. I'll go on runs where I can't lose but then have bad days that brings back reality. Key is staying away from going on tilt. I've been on tilt 4 times in this run. Going in my pocket and not accepting a loss 3 times. Losing 5000, 6000, 6000, as well as not accepting a $1300 win after a day of losing $3000. On that day I had my goal of $1300 but wasn't happy with that and lost all that back plus $3000 more. So if I can't remain focused I don't deserve the opportunity to be successful.

How does one go tilt on craps, do they start betting the hardways and sh*t?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SiegfriedRoy
SiegfriedRoy
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 483
Joined: Sep 23, 2014
August 10th, 2017 at 10:58:56 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How does one go tilt on craps, do they start betting the hardways and sh*t?



ALL ON FIELD BET
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 10th, 2017 at 11:31:04 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How does one go tilt on craps, do they start betting the hardways and sh*t?


The trick is to evenly spread your beds between Hard 3, Hard 5, Hard 7, and Hard 11. Hard 9 is for suckers.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 12:14:06 AM permalink
Quote: autocarry

wins 112 loses 29=79.4%

The most down during this time $11460 which was on day 11 . . .

currently I'm at a plus of $15330

So, 2/3 of your year to date profit came from one day of BIG betting!
Quote:

A reply to an earlier comment is Yes, when I'm down a good chunk of my bankroll ($1000 or so on a $3000 bankroll) I will push all in or push in a good bit to try to get back in the game.

A few BIG wagers averaging more than $1000: Those are going to dominate your results. Bigger wagers will dominate more.
Quote:

Obviously I've lost some of those but have won many more than I've lost.

That's luck or good variance: It happens.

I'm pleasd for you if you are having fun AND sit with a profit. But you are not beating the game. What you have does not and will not 'work' if you continue to do it. I hope you have an alternative source of income or capital, ready for when your lifetime profit reaches back down to zero.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9574
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 3:14:23 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

There you have it. One hundred players, 1 million passline bets each, zero winners, and an average loss of -14355.419 units on a wager with a house edge of 1.41%, WHO WOULD HAVE THUNK IT



Apparently no one told you it's *free odds* and the ability to get the HE well below 1% that makes it possible to have lifetime winners at Craps. You are also using 1 million resolved bets, not 1 million rolls of the dice.

I have confidence in Wincraps for simulations. Maybe I will take time to do one.

I don't know why some of our members get so upset by the idea that there can be winners. If there are 2 winners and 98 losers then that speaks for itself. Out of the 98, many many will be devastated in fact.

When you see a lottery winner on TV does this crowd think it is "fake news" ? Well, Romes would prove it is fake news by betting that if I buy a lottery ticket, I have to pay him X if I don't win big and he pays me that same amount if I do. That'll show everybody.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 4:53:40 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Apparently no one told you it's *free odds* and the ability to get the HE well below 1% that makes it possible to have lifetime winners at Craps. You are also using 1 million resolved bets, not 1 million rolls of the dice.

I have confidence in Wincraps for simulations. Maybe I will take time to do one.

I don't know why some of our members get so upset by the idea that there can be winners. If there are 2 winners and 98 losers then that speaks for itself. Out of the 98, many many will be devastated in fact.

When you see a lottery winner on TV does this crowd think it is "fake news" ? Well, Romes would prove it is fake news by betting that if I buy a lottery ticket, I have to pay him X if I don't win big and he pays me that same amount if I do. That'll show everybody.


What do you mean free odds? Is that just referring to the fact that taking odds is 0% edge? My program surely paid fair odds.

1 million resolutions -vs- 1 million rolls is really splitting hairs. I guarantee I'd be getting the same results at 1/3 of the sample size. Tell me exactly how you want the simulation run and I'll do it. I'm confident my program is just as accurate as wincraps, all of the stats it's pumping out are identicle to Wiz's calculations on his craps page.

No one is upset about winners, it's the lack of proof behind extraordinary claims that gets people all bothered.

"I'm a winner over 1mil rolls!"

"That's statistically impossible, here's the math to prove it."

"You're math is wrong! Run a simulation!"

"Here's a simulation that validates the math."

"Your simulation is wrong!"
alphastorm
alphastorm
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 130
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
August 11th, 2017 at 5:04:53 AM permalink
I don't understand why there are so many negative nancys on this board. I'm sure most people know that when you're gambling, you'll lose more times than you'll win. As Autocarry has pointed out, he's just lucky with the big bets. Sooner or later, it's possible his big bets will lose. There's no guarantee he will lose even when the HE is heavily against him. Some people are just born lucky.
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 5:13:54 AM permalink
First of all, what was the actual claim that was made (link please)? Was the player flat betting in this case, pressing bets, and/or increasing or decreasing unit sizes over time [ie: first using $10 units....then goes on a big win, and next session uses $20 units.....loses, next session is $5 units...etc.]? And of course, which bets were made and what kind of odds was the player taking?


Btw, the difference between 1 million rolls vs 1 million resolved bets is not "splitting hairs". If the average number of rolls per decision is 8.5 (or whatever it was quoted before), then that's 1 million vs 8.5 million rolls, which is certainly not splitting hairs. I'd also do much more than 100 trials for a simulation. A trial of 100 is just as bad as a trial of 1 when determining proof.


Were other claims made -- like you can use some system and win or this is proof you can win at a -EV game (in an attempt to say something like, "It doesn't matter who has the advantage, it's all random" as if advantage/disadvantage is meaningless)?
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 5:45:25 AM permalink
Quote: RS

First of all, what was the actual claim that was made (link please)? Was the player flat betting in this case, pressing bets, and/or increasing or decreasing unit sizes over time [ie: first using $10 units....then goes on a big win, and next session uses $20 units.....loses, next session is $5 units...etc.]? And of course, which bets were made and what kind of odds was the player taking?


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/27868-does-anyone-here-win-consistently-in-craps/12/#post602270

Quote: betwthelines

it is not only possible but likely that some very few will be ahead with these bets after a mil.


That quote is patently false assuming flat bets, proven by Boyimbo's math, Rome's, math, math in general, and my simulation.

Quote: RS

Btw, the difference between 1 million rolls vs 1 million resolved bets is not "splitting hairs". If the average number of rolls per decision is 8.5 (or whatever it was quoted before), then that's 1 million vs 8.5 million rolls, which is certainly not splitting hairs.


3.38 rolls on average to resolve a passline bet. In my simulation that would be the difference between 338,000,000 rolls and 100,000,000 rolls. I guarantee if I ran those two sims side by side it would produce the same results.

Quote: RS

I'd also do much more than 100 trials for a simulation. A trial of 100 is just as bad as a trial of 1 when determining proof.


Define a trial. My simulation was of ~337,601,691 rolls, the results were divided between 100 player's at OG's request. That's a whole lot different than 1 trial.

Again, anyone is welcome to tell me exactly how they want the simulation done (given that the program will execute in a reasonable timeframe) and I will post the data.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9574
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 6:06:42 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

What do you mean free odds?

If you have to ask that, it makes me fear what you are coming up with.

I didn't see where you put in the free odds, if you did what is it? 1X? 3x4x5x? 20x? it matters.

Quote: RS

First of all, what was the actual claim that was made (link please)?

We are probably talking about more than one claim, however, why don't we focus on this one?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/27868-does-anyone-here-win-consistently-in-craps/7/#post593585

which tossed around 200k to 1 million bets

If I state it this way: over 1 million rolls, not bets, taking full odds, 10x, there will be winners if there are enough players with different rolls of the dice- certainly if there are 1,000 players. I'll bet a simulation with Wincraps can prove that. Any takers?

More details to hammer out, like who runs the simulation [can't have someone cherry-pick]. We'll start a new thread to avoid confusion over 'which claim'.

PS: not your simulations, gamerfreak, with the existence of Wincraps there is no need to reinvent that wheel.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 6:30:44 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If you have to ask that, it makes me fear what you are coming up with.

I didn't see where you put in the free odds, if you did what is it? 1X? 3x4x5x? 20x? it matters.


Like I said the sim was run with 1x odds as romes stated in his proposition. I've just nevered heard of it referred to as free odds, and it certainly is not free.

Quote: odiousgambit

More details to hammer out, like who runs the simulation [can't have someone cherry-pick]. We'll start a new thread to avoid confusion over 'which claim'.

PS: not your simulations, gamerfreak, with the existence of Wincraps there is no need to reinvent that wheel.


Where is there cherry picking? Romes made a proposition, you suggested it be resolved with a simulation, and I ran an accurate simulation.

You're free not to trust my code, but I'll stand by the fact that it's just as accurate, of not more accurate than wincraps. But I'm more than willing to admit I'm wrong on any of this if you can prove otherwise, the code and numbers are there for anyone to look at.

If no one re-invented the wheel, we'd still have stone wheels. I'd rather spend an hour pounding out my own code rather than spend $15 on a geocities throwback site.
boymimbo
boymimbo
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 5994
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 6:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Quote: betwthelines

...if not with simulations, how would we structure your bet? i would take your bet...you would lose...

Okay, my craps table is open for business! We offer 1x odds on my craps table, and you can bet $500-$1,000 on the pass/don't pass or come/don't come (since that's the focus of our bet). You must complete 25,000 points. Since it takes ~8.5 rolls to resolve a point, that's approx 213,000 rolls of the dice. If you roll 6 times per minute (minimum restriction - you can throw faster if you want) that's 360 roles per hour. That would take approximately 590 hours or about 59 days of playing 10 hours per day (so about 2 months).

You might think that's a long time, but we're talking about a very large sum of money at stake! Well worth a few years of ones salary... Your -EV is only -$176,250 (if you flat bet $500)... BUT you COULD get lucky as you propose and you could be UP at the end! So it's CLEARLY worth your time to come win a few hundred thousand off me, right???



The actual number of rolls to resolve a pass / don't pass is 1 + 6/36*36/9+8/36*36/10+10/36*36/11 = 3.375758 rolls.
Number of trials is still 25,000 or 84,394 rolls or 234.5 hours though I think it takes 20 seconds a roll and not 10.

You offered 1x odds. Variance is 1.67. After 25,000 trials the standard deviation is 204.32 with an expected loss of 353.53 units. He has a 4.18% chance of breaking even or better on your table.

Not impossible at all. I don't know why anyone has to run simulators. When the odds and standard deviation are known you can plug everything into Excel and get the correct results with very little effort.

My theory is that a DI group exists because there are a few people who claim DI and actually win in the mid run because they are simply lucky.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9574
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 7:10:42 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Where is there cherry picking?

not accusing you of that, but anybody involved in this bet would have to be a fool to not assure there can be no cherry-picking . Come on.

Quote:

If no one re-invented the wheel, we'd still have stone wheels. I'd rather spend an hour pounding out my own code rather than spend $15 on a geocities throwback site.



No bet if you run the simulations. If, say, Wizard* likes your code and RNGs , fine.

*Steen, btw, who you just insulted, would also be a great choice for trusted simulator.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 7:55:21 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

The actual number of rolls to resolve a pass / don't pass is 1 + 6/36*36/9+8/36*36/10+10/36*36/11 = 3.375758 rolls.

I got it from the Wiz, from googling... it was the "Rolls Per Shooter" not per point. My mistake. Makes my bet even more attractive as it'll take 1/3 the time now!

Quote: odiousgambit

Romes, you have put yourself in the place of those who refuse to put their money where their mouth is around here, but you are one of a kind in this regard: you are the one who is saying "you won't bet me"

You are taking on the claim that "some" will be lifetime winners at Craps - especially if free odds are involved - then proposing to disprove it by saying "I bet this one individual fails"

Bravely saying "I'll be the house" and "you the player" in order to settle the matter too. What a guy!

PS: how about resolving the bet by doing a simulation - one done by someone both trust. If it is claimed that 2% of players are still ahead after 1 million rolls, then the simulation can be for 100 players. But it should not be for "one player" at basically an even bet. Come on.

First, any written wager I've put on the forums, I really would do... and this one could potentially involve hundreds of thousands of dollars. So you can scoff, but that's a serious offer if you'd like to take it.

Odious, I like your posting and think you're a sharp guy, but we've always disagreed on odds affecting the actual house edge. They do NOT affect the house edge. They affect the VARIANCE to the player. The house edge on the pass line is 1.41%. Have odds? Cool, the house edge on your bet is still 1.41%. The variance to the player and results will vary due to the odds wagers (especially the larger they are), but this doesn't affect one's negative EV. It just makes the standard deviations bigger so that the player has a "chance" (at high enough odds) to be "extremely lucky" and end up barely in the black. See pictures below:

Craps with NO odds


Craps with 'large enough' odds
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9574
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 8:13:08 AM permalink
another photobucket victim!

I agree that you cannot change the EV of your line bet with free odds.

I will say though that you are discounting the far right corner of the bell curve - as if it doesn't exist. I certainly discount that I will be there in my Craps play, but that is a different matter from saying "someone" will be there out of the hordes who gamble.

If you feel it is irresponsible to point out the far right corner, perhaps you are right. No one should count on being there.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 8:22:49 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

*Steen, btw, who you just insulted, would also be a great choice for trusted simulator.


I didn't insult steen, just made a friendly poke at his site design. I'm sure wincraps is a fine simulator.

Quote: odiousgambit

not accusing you of that, but anybody involved in this bet would have to be a fool to not assure there can be no cherry-picking . Come on.
No bet if you run the simulations. If, say, Wizard* likes your code and RNGs , fine.


I didn't know what you meant by cherry picking, I apologize. I don't mean any ill-will here, the only reason I'm being a little arrogant is because the denial of math super frustrating (other's in this thread, not you). To be clear, the claim that there is likely winners over 1mil rolls betting the passline w/ 1x odds is what I am saying is false.

I believe you're correct that there will be winners over 1m rolls when taking 10x odds. Here's what my sim said:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Results Among 100 Players Over 300000 Passline Bets Resolved Taking 10x Odds
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Rolls: 1012605.16
Units Wagered: 2300038
Units: -4931.72
7/11 Win: 22.2163900%
Craps Lose: 11.1156733%
Point Win: 27.0652466%
7 Out: 39.6026900%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most Units: 9156
Least Units: -20025
Winners: 21
Losers: 79
Even: 0
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9574
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 8:31:58 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

I believe you're correct that there will be winners over 1m rolls when taking 10x odds.



That sim looks familiar. I've run them on Wincraps [but can't find my old results if I ever did 1 million rolls]

So, where are these guys, these winners?

Out of the few who would be lucky enough, they don't stick with it. I think we are hearing from a few who have been so luck so far but not the 70 yr old guy who stuck with it and came out ahead. Tom P, or whoever, correct me if I am wrong.

The swings are just too much. At 10x odds and $10 tables you have $100k swings and in the end you are more likely to be behind than ahead. What do we actually see at the Craps table? Guys who can't take the swings of 3x4x5x odds and wake up every morning dreaming up another way to hedge their bets.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 3540
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 8:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Odious, I like your posting and think you're a sharp guy, but we've always disagreed on odds affecting the actual house edge. They do NOT affect the house edge.


I was thinking about this last night, and don't know what conclusion to make.

Look at this table:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#toc-Strategy

It would make sense that 1.4% HE + 0% HE = 1.4% HE. However looking at that table, it does seem like taking odds lowers the overall house edge for those rolls only, but I'm not sure exactly how to interpret those numbers. Where it may be deceiving is the required -1.4% wager with no odds when the shooter is coming out, and 1/3 of passline bets are resolved without a point ever being established.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9574
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
August 11th, 2017 at 9:10:57 AM permalink
I have argued that the EV cannot change with free odds, but that the HE in fact can change. But that dissolved into semantics and even Steen took me to task.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 9:44:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I have argued that the EV cannot change with free odds, but that the HE in fact can change. But that dissolved into semantics and even Steen took me to task.

Okay... You're stating EV can't and won't change... Well:

EV = (NumGames*AvgBet)*(HE)

If EV doesn't change, HE doesn't change. If you're claiming HE can change, then EV would change. It is impossible for HE to change if EV does not, which you admit.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
autocarry
autocarry
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 18
Joined: May 31, 2017
August 11th, 2017 at 10:53:27 AM permalink
Born lucky?LOLLLLL I've lost way too many bets by some unbelievable ways during the course of my life(as have everyone on this board). Even if I can remain modestly successful in craps there's NO way I can recoup the money I've lost in my life with all my sports gambling, horse betting, and other forms of casino gambling which I used to do in my life.

Regarding the bigger bets as long as I can get by the come out roll I will always have the advantage and will win my mathematical formula number of times.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
August 11th, 2017 at 11:38:16 AM permalink
Quote: autocarry

I will always have the advantage and will win my mathematical formula number of times.

Define advantage? Is it about probability of a winning session, or are you so deluded as to think you have a player edge?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
autocarry
autocarry
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 18
Joined: May 31, 2017
August 11th, 2017 at 11:59:06 AM permalink
At least quote me properly. I said as long as I get by the come out roll I will always have the advantage. What part of that didn't you understand? I'm a 2-1 favorite against 4 and 10. 3 to 2 favorite against a 5 and 9, and a 6 to 5 favorite against a 6 and 8. Do you understand now or do you want me to draw it in Crayon for you?
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
Thanked by
RS
August 11th, 2017 at 12:04:39 PM permalink
Quote: autocarry

Do you understand now or do you want me to draw it in Crayon for you?


I understood. If the dice roll in your favour, you have an advantage. Enjoy it.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
alphastorm
alphastorm
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 130
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
August 15th, 2017 at 8:21:42 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I understood. If the dice roll in your favour, you have an advantage. Enjoy it.



He meant he is favored to win after the come out roll. Which is true because he is on the don't pass.
Tanko
Tanko
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1199
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
August 21st, 2017 at 4:49:21 AM permalink
Dice setter at play.

Crossed sixes on the come out, 3V after the point.

Mosca
Mosca
  • Threads: 191
  • Posts: 4140
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
August 21st, 2017 at 6:53:49 AM permalink
I can't say that I win consistently, but I can say that I'm dead even over the last two years.
A falling knife has no handle.
wilbsmitt
wilbsmitt
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 58
Joined: Mar 16, 2015
August 21st, 2017 at 8:23:00 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Dice setter at play.

Crossed sixes on the come out, 3V after the point.



Shooter certainly didn't have confidence in his ability. Never increased pass line/odds bet. Looking at the chips in his rail he may have won $100 on a half hour roll = pathetic.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
Thanked by
Boz
August 21st, 2017 at 8:26:35 AM permalink
Quote: wilbsmitt

Quote: Tanko

Dice setter at play.

Crossed sixes on the come out, 3V after the point.



Shooter certainly didn't have confidence in his ability. Never increased pass line/odds bet. Looking at the chips in his rail he may have won $100 on a half hour roll = pathetic.


Yeah... where are all of these supposed DI practioners betting table max all day long?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
Thanked by
Boz
August 21st, 2017 at 8:56:29 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Quote: wilbsmitt

Quote: Tanko

Dice setter at play.

Crossed sixes on the come out, 3V after the point.



Shooter certainly didn't have confidence in his ability. Never increased pass line/odds bet. Looking at the chips in his rail he may have won $100 on a half hour roll = pathetic.


Yeah... where are all of these supposed DI practioners betting table max all day long?


They don't want to get greedy. Hit their session win goal and done for the day. If you get greedy, you lose. Duh.
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
August 21st, 2017 at 9:08:40 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

Dice setter at play.

Crossed sixes on the come out, 3V after the point.

This is just comical. Not only does he not even set the dice every single throw (in the first 5 min I watched) but he also doesn't even throw from teh same spot. Sometimes he sets/throws from the top of the Pass Line. Sometimes from the bottom. His release was at different heights/times for the same throws (come out or after point). The dice flung and rolled different directions nearly every single time he threw the dice.

NOTHING about this guys throws at all looks replicable or reliable. Let alone I guarantee I could take a video of one of his next throws where he 7's out on the first few throws and post it all the same.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
autocarry
autocarry
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 18
Joined: May 31, 2017
August 21st, 2017 at 10:55:42 AM permalink
If the dice are hitting the Tits like they're supposed to is "dice setting" have any reliability?
Mikey75
Mikey75
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 639
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
August 21st, 2017 at 3:12:31 PM permalink
He certainly needs a betting lesson. He tossed all those sevens with his hard ways working.

No dice setting doesn't have any reliability.
Tanko
Tanko
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1199
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
August 22nd, 2017 at 4:25:58 AM permalink
Quote: autocarry

If the dice are hitting the Tits like they're supposed to is "dice setting" have any reliability?



No. The dice begin to pitch and spin the moment they become airborne. When they hit a surface, they pop in every direction.

There is no harm in using a quick 3V set as a courtesy to the players who appreciate an effort rather than a random toss.

I’ve rejected tips from a few players after one of my rare, good, but always random, 3V rolls. I once rejected a black chip.

If tips count, then maybe it does work.
alphastorm
alphastorm
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 130
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
August 22nd, 2017 at 5:17:00 AM permalink
I still feel rotation in the air is stupid. You can't control how they land. It could land flat or on the edges making it really random. I'd rather eliminate that possibility and throw it flat every time and hope it lands flat. It's less believable when someone claims to control the dice, yet they rotate it in the air. I am having trouble flipping a coin to have it flip over the same number of times consistently. This whole rotation idea is a bunch of BS.
Calder
Calder
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 534
Joined: Mar 26, 2010
August 22nd, 2017 at 2:28:52 PM permalink
Quote: Tanko

I’ve rejected tips from a few players after one of my rare, good, but always random, 3V rolls. I once rejected a black chip.


Why?
Tomfish
Tomfish
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 56
Joined: Aug 22, 2017
August 22nd, 2017 at 10:32:52 PM permalink
craps is fun but there really is no control over how the dice land. the real chances of winning comes in where you place your bets and the likelihood winning/losing.
I like hearing about betting advice, how to win, how to avoid losing etc. Like all the stories people I meet in casinos tell me.
Laymedown
Laymedown
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 265
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
March 25th, 2018 at 6:18:12 PM permalink
Define consistently?

I start my day at the craps table with $1000 and in most cases can play more than 8 hrs Win/Lose of course.
but my lay strategy wins 6:1 if a seven gets rolled but its one time bet unless repeater sevens occur on come out.

Pretty consistent.
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
Laymedown
Laymedown
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 265
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
March 28th, 2018 at 12:51:04 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I play at Seneca Niagara in Niagara Falls USA. I play craps maybe once a year, usually because whoever I'm going with wants to play craps. When I play I play pass line with some odds and lots of come bets with odds, and occasionally bet on 6 and 8. So I will tend to lose but have a decent chance of getting lucky and win. But I do not expect to win when I play craps. When I play my favorite game at Seneca Niagara (they don't have Tiles), there are some times due to weak dealers I have an advantage, like definitely yesterday, but most days I just play against the 1-2% house edge, and hope to win (luck) but will more likely lose.
And you are correct, it doesn't matter whether anyone believes you or not. I am just telling you that no one here believes you have found some magic system that will reliably beat craps. No matter how many times you type it. No matter how many different ways you say it.

Just out of curiosity, your system was working last night so that you made $500. Why weren't you betting double so you could have made $1000?
After making $500, why didn't you just start over and make another $500?



Question? If someone can make 500/day playing at the casino and winning consistently, why risk your winning to win more. I could see letting it all ride at a vegas casino but if you're winning consistently, why not just make a comfortable living for yourself with the smaller wins?
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
Zcore13
Zcore13
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 3808
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
Thanked by
AxelWolf
March 28th, 2018 at 1:59:28 AM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

Question? If someone can make 500/day playing at the casino and winning consistently, why risk your winning to win more. I could see letting it all ride at a vegas casino but if you're winning consistently, why not just make a comfortable living for yourself with the smaller wins?



Unless someone is a good card counter or taking advantage of dealers exposing cards in carnival games, they can't win $500 A day consistently. It doesn't happen. Nobody does it. End of story.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Laymedown
Laymedown
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 265
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
March 28th, 2018 at 9:32:14 AM permalink
Don't kid yourself, we are talking casino's here where there are many types of bettors, whales, low key, conservative, aggressive, etc.
instead of saying $500/day you should calculate what the casino's average take is then factor in the potential professional gamblers in the building average take home win.

For example: if 500 was the magic number and the casino's daily take was 1,000,000 per day then there only needs to be 2000 winners to break that casino or if you were to break down the daily amount in to per hour, the casino would make $41,667.00/hr

500/day is equal to 20.00 per hr per person if calculated on a 24hr pay roll multiplied by 2000 people to break the casino or just one Whale betting large amounts.

I know regulars at the casino making more than 300/hr now with no limitations. 500/day is nothing to the casino making 41k per hour.
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11009
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
AxelWolf
March 28th, 2018 at 10:52:25 AM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

Question? If someone can make 500/day playing at the casino and winning consistently, why risk your winning to win more. I could see letting it all ride at a vegas casino but if you're winning consistently, why not just make a comfortable living for yourself with the smaller wins?



What technique works consistently when trying to win $500 a day, but fails when trying to win $600 a day? Think about it.....

There may be ways to consistently win in a casino, but craps is not one of them.......
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
  • Threads: 105
  • Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
March 28th, 2018 at 11:39:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


There may be ways to consistently win in a casino, but craps is not one of them.......



..... perhaps for 99% of the ones playing it.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Laymedown
Laymedown
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 265
Joined: Nov 15, 2017
March 28th, 2018 at 11:55:41 AM permalink
What I find fails is the most is min betting. That's the bread and butter for the casino.
Even system players using some sort of reverse betting strategies start off with a minimum bet.

Experience it for yourself at the tables. Go to a $5.00 minimum table and watch 99% of them lose their chips in just a short time.

I still bet the same amount at a $5.00 or even a $25 table. I can not confidently say my way of betting is consistent but I do see $500 days and also $1000.00 days from just a simple LAY ALL NUMBERS ON COME OUT THEN TAKE THEM DOWN system.

But I factor in that every shooter 100% of the time want to roll a seven on come out roll.
I also factor in an expectation to lose at least one of my bets 85% of the time
I also customize my lay bets by not laying all the numbers utilizing the trends of the shooters past history.
If I see a Dice setter rolling a bunch of 6,8's I will lay only the outside numbers.
I also try to keep a visual on what numbers come out with the dice set used. In most cases the all seven set is the dice set I am mostly familiar with for the come out roll.
Anything else I can add to the table gives me nothing but a better edge.
Sorry for my many daily posts. I am a retired professional and I love to chat about gambling. I also enjoy reading and can't help but to reply to some fantastic articles.
Zcore13
Zcore13
  • Threads: 41
  • Posts: 3808
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
March 28th, 2018 at 12:08:33 PM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

What I find fails is the most is min betting. That's the bread and butter for the casino. even system players using some sort of reverse betting technique starts off with the minimum bet.

Experience it for yourself at the tables. Go to a $5.00 minimum table and watch 99% of them lose their chips in just a short time.

I still bet the same amount at a $5.00 or even a $25 table. I can not confidently say my way of betting is consistent but I do see $500 days and also $1000.00 days from just a simple LAY ALL NUMBERS ON COME OUT THEN TAKE THEM DOWN system.

But I factor in that every shooter 100% of the time want to roll a seven on come out roll.
I also factor in an expectation to lose at least one of my bets 85% of the time
I also customize my lay bets by not laying all the numbers utilizing the trends of the shooters past history.
If I see a Dice setter rolling a bunch of 6,8's I will lay only the outside numbers.
I also try to keep a visual on what numbers come out with the dice set used. In most cases the all seven set is the dice set I am mostly familiar with for the come out roll.
Anything else I can add to the table gives me nothing but a better edge.



Nothing you do give you a better edge other than making wagers that are a lower hold percentage. And nobody is making $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, or any other number you want to list, playing craps on a regular basis.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1443
Joined: May 3, 2016
March 28th, 2018 at 12:10:17 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

..... perhaps for 99% of the ones playing it.



Please inform us of how much you're winning then and how many hours you logged at the craps table. Then people will take you seriously. Until then, you're one of 2 options. You're a casino shill or you're a troll.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1443
Joined: May 3, 2016
March 28th, 2018 at 12:12:58 PM permalink
Quote: Laymedown

Question? If someone can make 500/day playing at the casino and winning consistently, why risk your winning to win more. I could see letting it all ride at a vegas casino but if you're winning consistently, why not just make a comfortable living for yourself with the smaller wins?



Is this post for real? How can someone be this uneducated about 'gambling'. Comfortable living off craps? Basing your results off short term variance? No wonder they build casinos. Geez.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
  • Jump to: