gamerfreak

Joined: Dec 28, 2014
• Posts: 1021
August 11th, 2017 at 8:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Odious, I like your posting and think you're a sharp guy, but we've always disagreed on odds affecting the actual house edge. They do NOT affect the house edge.

Look at this table:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#toc-Strategy

It would make sense that 1.4% HE + 0% HE = 1.4% HE. However looking at that table, it does seem like taking odds lowers the overall house edge for those rolls only, but I'm not sure exactly how to interpret those numbers. Where it may be deceiving is the required -1.4% wager with no odds when the shooter is coming out, and 1/3 of passline bets are resolved without a point ever being established.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 7296
August 11th, 2017 at 9:10:57 AM permalink
I have argued that the EV cannot change with free odds, but that the HE in fact can change. But that dissolved into semantics and even Steen took me to task.
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." .......... Mark Twain
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 4129
August 11th, 2017 at 9:44:32 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I have argued that the EV cannot change with free odds, but that the HE in fact can change. But that dissolved into semantics and even Steen took me to task.

Okay... You're stating EV can't and won't change... Well:

EV = (NumGames*AvgBet)*(HE)

If EV doesn't change, HE doesn't change. If you're claiming HE can change, then EV would change. It is impossible for HE to change if EV does not, which you admit.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
autocarry
Joined: May 31, 2017
• Posts: 17
August 11th, 2017 at 10:53:27 AM permalink
Born lucky?LOLLLLL I've lost way too many bets by some unbelievable ways during the course of my life(as have everyone on this board). Even if I can remain modestly successful in craps there's NO way I can recoup the money I've lost in my life with all my sports gambling, horse betting, and other forms of casino gambling which I used to do in my life.

Regarding the bigger bets as long as I can get by the come out roll I will always have the advantage and will win my mathematical formula number of times.
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 1818
August 11th, 2017 at 11:38:16 AM permalink
Quote: autocarry

I will always have the advantage and will win my mathematical formula number of times.

Define advantage? Is it about probability of a winning session, or are you so deluded as to think you have a player edge?
Embrace the Variance
autocarry
Joined: May 31, 2017
• Posts: 17
August 11th, 2017 at 11:59:06 AM permalink
At least quote me properly. I said as long as I get by the come out roll I will always have the advantage. What part of that didn't you understand? I'm a 2-1 favorite against 4 and 10. 3 to 2 favorite against a 5 and 9, and a 6 to 5 favorite against a 6 and 8. Do you understand now or do you want me to draw it in Crayon for you?
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 1818
Thanks for this post from:
August 11th, 2017 at 12:04:39 PM permalink
Quote: autocarry

Do you understand now or do you want me to draw it in Crayon for you?

I understood. If the dice roll in your favour, you have an advantage. Enjoy it.
Embrace the Variance
alphastorm
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
• Posts: 87
August 15th, 2017 at 8:21:42 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I understood. If the dice roll in your favour, you have an advantage. Enjoy it.

He meant he is favored to win after the come out roll. Which is true because he is on the don't pass.
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
• Posts: 586
August 21st, 2017 at 4:49:21 AM permalink
Dice setter at play.

Crossed sixes on the come out, 3V after the point.

Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009