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rawtuff
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January 17th, 2016 at 1:41:54 AM permalink
The unlikeliness of such a streak is comparable to about 72 blacks or reds in a row on the roulette table, right?

I'd guess 72 blacks in a row would make at least the local newspaper if not going viral all over the international news. The lack of any public record or at least the rumor getting in the news is quite telling imo.

This could not only be the the most unlikely streak in the gambling history, but the most unlikely streak in human history period.
Tits are good, but the most important thing is the soul.
AxelWolf
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January 17th, 2016 at 5:45:10 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff



This could not only be the the most unlikely streak in the gambling history, but the most unlikely streak in human history period.

As Alan would say, "BUT IT HAPPENED!"
------------------------------------------------------
When and why did Alan first report this? Was he trying to prove a point? Was it something regarding DI and how random rollers can get lucky? We all know Alan claims he is one of the few people to have ever played craps with someone who can influence the dice. He believes everyone else is full of it, and he wants proof of their DI claims.

I think the first time I remember him mentioning the big 18 was when AOS allegedly lost 30 hands of BJ in a row. Let's not forget AOS tried to make it sound more credible by adding the fact that it was on 3 different tables. I honestly believe AOS believes he lost 30 in a row, whereas Alan doesn't actually believe he himself seen 18 yo's in a row.

IMO, at some point Alan seen an abnormal amount of yo's during a session ( probably 3 in a row and 18 in total).
He probably just tossed out "in a row" to add some wow factor to it, not realizing just how absurdity Ludicrous it was. At that point he couldn't take it back or everything he ever said might be questioned.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
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January 17th, 2016 at 6:14:01 AM permalink
I think axel is spot on is his assessment of the Alan situation/ I think the same thing happened to me on poker stars when I was multi tabling/ I hit aces four hands in a row or so I thought but in reality I think I hit three in a row then skipped a couple hands and hit them again just seemed like four In a row
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MrV
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January 17th, 2016 at 8:05:58 AM permalink
It may be that Alan was genuinely confused about what he saw.

I wonder whether his diabetic kidney failure issues contributed to what might be considered a false memory?

WebMD states: "As kidney damage progresses, your kidneys cannot remove the waste from your blood. The waste then builds up in your body and can reach poisonous levels, a condition known as uremia. People with uremia are often confused or comatose." see link

So another poll choice could have been "confusion caused by uremia," at least if the memory of the 18 yo's became embedded in his noggin about the time his kidney failure was at its worst, probably immediately pre-kidney transplant.

In other words, the memory could be a figment of his imagination, a side effect of disease.
"What, me worry?"
beachbumbabs
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January 17th, 2016 at 8:28:31 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

It may be that Alan was genuinely confused about what he saw.

I wonder whether his diabetic kidney failure issues contributed to what might be considered a false memory?

WebMD states: "As kidney damage progresses, your kidneys cannot remove the waste from your blood. The waste then builds up in your body and can reach poisonous levels, a condition known as uremia. People with uremia are often confused or comatose." see link

So another poll choice could have been "confusion caused by uremia," at least if the memory of the 18 yo's became embedded in his noggin about the time his kidney failure was at its worst, probably immediately pre-kidney transplant.

In other words, the memory could be a figment of his imagination, a side effect of disease.



I find your continued speculation about Alan's mental or physical health very distasteful and inappropriate. They're why your "poll" got taken down, and there's no question you insulted him to such a degree he resigned, as he said so (on his own site). Stop it now, please. I don't care if it's true or not at this point - this is not the place for it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MrV
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January 17th, 2016 at 9:33:41 AM permalink
This isn't the place for it?

What could possibly be deemed inappropriate about speculating as to why someone would make a claim that 99% of us feel to be impossible?

He gets a bye on this?

Whatever.
"What, me worry?"
Mission146
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January 17th, 2016 at 10:12:19 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

This isn't the place for it?

What could possibly be deemed inappropriate about speculating as to why someone would make a claim that 99% of us feel to be impossible?

He gets a bye on this?

Whatever.



99%, 'Feel,' there's a certain measure of flack that's going to go along with that, but technically the story can't be proven wrong, so there are some limits.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizardofnothing
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January 17th, 2016 at 10:14:59 AM permalink
I would think discussion about how someone could have mistaken it would be acceptable...: maybe not direct insults but speculation should be ok as long as it does not cross the line....
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HowMany
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January 17th, 2016 at 10:20:46 AM permalink
I vote for "confusion caused by uremia"
Mission146
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January 17th, 2016 at 10:41:18 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I would think discussion about how someone could have mistaken it would be acceptable...: maybe not direct insults but speculation should be ok as long as it does not cross the line....



Oh, that, sure. I just don't know that making inferences based on a guy's health problems is necessarily appropriate.

I almost think of it, assuming it's not true, as being one of those stories from a guy (not Alan, specifically) that you are almost positive is bull, but the guy spins such a great yarn you can't help but enjoy it. I think most people have had a distant relative like that, 'Been everywhere, done everything,' type. Harmless. Best of health and happiness to Alan, I hope he returns.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SanchoPanza
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January 17th, 2016 at 10:52:57 AM permalink
Quote: HowMany

I vote for "confusion caused by uremia"

Does anyone here have experience with Stage 4 ESRD or dialysis? If not, that leaves all such opinions at a minimum as totally unqualified, if not far worse.
beachbumbabs
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January 17th, 2016 at 10:59:00 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

This isn't the place for it?

What could possibly be deemed inappropriate about speculating as to why someone would make a claim that 99% of us feel to be impossible?

He gets a bye on this?

Whatever.



He doesn't "get a bye on this". Who knows why he thinks it happened, including that just maybe it did, though extremely unlikely. It's not inappropriate to suggest he's experiencing a selective memory or misremembering. Where you cross the line is labeling him schizophrenic (twice, at least) or uremic when a) it's clear he's insulted that you did so and b) you're not his physician. I'm following the Wizard's lead on this, as he's the one who took down the poll because of it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DeMango
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January 17th, 2016 at 12:09:40 PM permalink
As soon as this dies down, he will be back. Free publicity cannot be given up in the long haul.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Wizardofnothing
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January 17th, 2016 at 12:45:46 PM permalink
Bbb not that j disagree with you but he did go in his forum and bring it up not only again but tried to discredit members of this site at the same time/ even ace went in there and decided to leave after 3 hours for good
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AxelWolf
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January 17th, 2016 at 1:06:25 PM permalink
AOS went to Alan's site but left in 3 hours for good? What were the circumstances surrounding that?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
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January 17th, 2016 at 1:08:01 PM permalink
He introduced himself- gave a trip report- all the crap started and he went postal and told Alan to remove and delete his account
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HowMany
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January 17th, 2016 at 1:51:23 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

He introduced himself- gave a trip report- all the crap started and he went postal and told Alan to remove and delete his account



He does the same thing around here damn near every week. He needs attention constantly.
AxelWolf
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January 17th, 2016 at 2:43:05 PM permalink
I may Razz Ace especially about his dirty 30. However I like him and he's a good guy IMO. I wouldn't want to say anything seriously derogatory about him. I don't think he deserves that.

--------------------------------------------------------------
I really don't understand why some people get so emotional about every little thing.

During the B79 dibocale I understand him taking a break.
-------------------------------------------------------------
AOS here's your chance to come back without everyone rolling their eyes.

Simply say you made a mistake by lending support to Alan and his gazillion to 1 shot by leaving.There are far better ways to show your support.

We are all big boys here (except for back entry kentry) we are not going to coddle you (BBB might☺). Anyone who doesn't already believe you two, well they are not going to change their stance on this. People who already believe you and Alan(all 3) probably don't want to touch this with a 18' or 30' pole.

Both of your actions are comparable to some insecure teenage girl s**t.

Perhaps you should realize WOV is your home and it always will be. You can't fight it, so just except it and come back already and move on. Besides you have one thing going for you. Alan's claim is so absurd and ridiculous that people may be more accepting of your claim.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Daddydoc
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January 18th, 2016 at 7:03:58 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Does anyone here have experience with Stage 4 ESRD or dialysis? If not, that leaves all such opinions at a minimum as totally unqualified, if not far worse.



If he was sick enough to be confused from uremia, he probably wouldn't be coherent enough to post on a forum let alone use a computer. We don't see this very often anymore, because most patients start dialysis before they get to that point. Stage 4 kidney disease does not cause confusion.
Last edited by: Daddydoc on Jan 18, 2016
If government is the answer, it must have been a very stupid question.
ontariodealer
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January 18th, 2016 at 7:42:42 PM permalink
does syphillis count????
get second you pig
Wizardofnothing
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January 18th, 2016 at 7:46:20 PM permalink
We should all expect Alan to have such claims/ he just doesn't get it. He posted this very complicated Therum today on his forum- Mods if I'm not allowed to post from his forum please delete
How much can you win playing video poker?


In another thread I said that I believed a player at high limit video poker, including $25 video poker, could win $100,000 -- and this was based on playing negative expectation games including but not exclusively 8/5 Bonus poker.

I was asked this question:

Quote Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
Alan. If someone can win $100,000 at vp playing high stakes then a quarter player should be able to win $10,000 maybe $20,000 per year playing sub optimal pay tables, correct?
I think it's relative. And of course it depends on how lucky you get.

If a player at $25/coin VP can win $100,000 a year, then I think it is likely a player at $5/coin VP can win $20,000 a year.

At $1/coin the winnings could be $4,000 a year.

At 25-cents/coin it would be $1,000 a year.

Where do I get my numbers from? The payoff on a royal flush.

Suppose you play a 99.2% game -- with a little luck and without a royal you might have a return of 96% or 97%. It's when you hit the royal on top of that 96% or 97% that you have a chance for a yearly profit equal to the royal. There is one important element and that is not putting it all back after you win, and controlling losses when the game isn't going your way.

If there is a 25-cent player who does have a yearly profit of more than a thousand dollars a year -- or $10,000 or $20,000 a year -- then I say good for them. But I wouldn't expect it.

I fully expect a player at $25/coin to be able to have a yearly profit of $100,000 and to me that is not an unreasonable claim.
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Wizardofnothing
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January 19th, 2016 at 11:25:49 AM permalink
Almost as improbable- maybe we all owe Alan an apology
https://www.facebook.com/pokertube/videos/10153802775614286/
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Rigondeaux
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January 19th, 2016 at 12:03:05 PM permalink
How many runn outs would he have to win for it to equal 18 yos?
Wizardofnothing
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January 19th, 2016 at 12:06:12 PM permalink
Given a limited number of cards/ not really sure the equivalent is possible since it would be mathematically impossible for antonious not to win a few of them strictly based on the remaining cards
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teliot
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January 19th, 2016 at 12:44:52 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

How many runn outs would he have to win for it to equal 18 yos?

Assuming Robl was 27% to win (as the video shows), it's the same as winning 40 consecutive runs. (okay, to be more precise, 39.7352537 runs). This is assuming that the cards other than Antonius' and Robl's cards and three Flop cards are reshuffled in between runs.
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rxwine
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January 19th, 2016 at 1:46:39 PM permalink
Speaking of improbable probabilities, I remember places like the Flamingo Hilton used to post the bigger Keno playing card winners on the wall.

If I remember correctly live keno allowed betting all 20 numbers. I doubt if it's still being done. (is it?) Anyway, that's the closest thing I can think where something improbable might be documented over a period of time.

BTW, that was back in 1990-91.
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beachbumbabs
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January 20th, 2016 at 9:25:42 PM permalink
Discussion of the NHL odds and All-Star game have been moved here.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
SOOPOO
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January 23rd, 2016 at 8:11:44 AM permalink
One of my problems with the allegation of 18 yos in a row is the lack of any taped documentation. I have a few questions for regular craps players, dealers, and supervisors.

1. If you are a player at a table and are on an amazing unusual streak, can you ask for some official documentation of such? How would this request be handled?
"Mr Pit Boss... I just rolled 18 yos in a row! Can you help me authenticate the greatest feat in the history of casino gambling?"

2. Would the dealer/pit boss do anything after 6 yos in a row? 9? 12? 15? 18?

3. If people started betting it heavily after yo 4, let's say, they just keep paying and playing, up to the table limit?
DeMango
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January 25th, 2016 at 1:34:31 AM permalink
This work of fiction is even more impressive than the alleged mega roll by The Captain. Any anomaly on a gaming table gets publicity, lots of it. Be it Phil Ivey, Pat DeMauro or that fellow that won millions at BJ with loss rebates and good rules. These stories will make it to news outlets. Something as unusual as 18 yo's, especially when someone does the math and finds the rarity of the event, begs to make headlines somewhere.

It didn't happen.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
HowMany
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January 25th, 2016 at 5:21:51 AM permalink
It's a huge insult to the forum's intelligence that we'd believe such utter nonsense.
Wizard
Administrator
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January 25th, 2016 at 6:53:45 AM permalink
Quote: HowMany

It's a huge insult to the forum's intelligence that we'd believe such utter nonsense.



Two people voted for "I believe Alan" in this poll.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
RS
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January 25th, 2016 at 2:33:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Two people voted for "I believe Alan" in this poll.



I wonder how many of his votes are sarcastic and how many are from non-posters.
AxelWolf
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January 25th, 2016 at 4:12:36 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Two people voted for "I believe Alan" in this poll.

Looks like he and AOS got their votes in.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
djatc
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January 25th, 2016 at 4:26:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Two people voted for "I believe Alan" in this poll.



Why you gotta put my business out there... Oh crap i incriminated myself. Alanm4lyfe #damnmatheletes
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HowMany
HowMany
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January 25th, 2016 at 4:27:00 PM permalink
Funniest thread titles at WoV:

#2) "18 yo's in a row"

#1) "I was raped at mile marker 164"
TwoFeathersATL
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January 25th, 2016 at 8:59:39 PM permalink
Just me, but I think this thread has served it's purpose, and gone beyond that point.
Ya wanna make 18 yo jokes in other threads, I got no problem with that.
Ya wanna keep this thread alive forever, now I got some doubts.
I don't think he was trying to lose weight, I don't think he welched on a bet, I don't think he was talking about the 2012 Presidential election.

I have never yet blocked a thread, or a poster (well once by fat fingered accident), not until now.
I don't play craps, but I would make an exception if I see Alan at a table (will never happen).
I'm done here, and I left sad.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
odiousgambit
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January 26th, 2016 at 6:27:14 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Just me, but I think this thread has served it's purpose



Agreed, I don't like to block Craps threads, but this one is really showing its age.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
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January 27th, 2016 at 12:57:10 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Agreed, I don't like to block Craps threads, but this one is really showing its age.

Long ago that's the fist thing I blocked, then I blocked a bunch of other threads. I'm now regretting my mass blocking binge, because I didn't realize then that even the seemingly boring and useless threads sometimes take an interesting turn. I'm always wondering if i'm missing something interesting

It's to time consuming to unblock them all.

Perhaps they can make a unblock/block all button for us.

PS. I would also like a PM search feature.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
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January 27th, 2016 at 1:45:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Long ago that's the fist thing I blocked, then I blocked a bunch of other threads. I'm now regretting my mass blocking binge, because I didn't realize then that even the seemingly boring and useless threads sometimes take an interesting turn. I'm always wondering if i'm missing something interesting

It's to time consuming to unblock them all.

Perhaps they can make a unblock/block all button for us.

PS. I would also like a PM search feature.



PM search feature would be wonderful. So would being able to sort by sender.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TwoFeathersATL
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January 27th, 2016 at 4:25:38 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



Perhaps they can make a unblock/block all button for us.

Actually, there already is a 'block all' feature ;-)
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
darkoz
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January 27th, 2016 at 4:50:51 AM permalink
Well, I mentioned this where it came up in another thread but repeating it here might make some sense.

Someone (Sabre, actually) stated the odds of finding a computer glitch in a casino that could result in a $100K pay-day were greater than the odds of seeing 18 yo's in a row.

I don't know how anyone could measure that mathematically, and we are obviously looking a human error situation, but if it is measurable, I imagine based on knowledge of the entire vetting process of the gaming world, is this true?

Is it a greater likelihood of seeing 18 yo's thrown in a row than finding a computer glitch worth $100K in a day inside a casino?

And yes, I'm getting at the fact that at least this can be demonstrably seen as having been achieved. And if the odds are greater than seeing 18 yo;s, then everyone on here will have to admit it is possible Alan saw it.
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Wizardofnothing
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January 27th, 2016 at 4:55:53 AM permalink
I think you are off with how frequently the glitches happen- - strictly based on the few that were in the news I would say it has already happened more frequently then the 18 yos so not really sure how you can even make that statement-
Going off what THE WIZARD. Said about all the craps tables going for the length of the sun yadda yadda yadda.
Two come to mind instantly with the aqueduct issue and the video poker double up- so sabre is not even close in his assessment because those two occurred just in the last five years alone. I'm sure other members clearly know this estimate is not close to accurate ..... Sorry sabre
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AxelWolf
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January 27th, 2016 at 5:37:58 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Well, I mentioned this where it came up in another thread but repeating it here might make some sense.

Someone (Sabre, actually) stated the odds of finding a computer glitch in a casino that could result in a $100K pay-day were greater than the odds of seeing 18 yo's in a row.

I don't know how anyone could measure that mathematically, and we are obviously looking a human error situation, but if it is measurable, I imagine based on knowledge of the entire vetting process of the gaming world, is this true?

Is it a greater likelihood of seeing 18 yo's thrown in a row than finding a computer glitch worth $100K in a day inside a casino?

And yes, I'm getting at the fact that at least this can be demonstrably seen as having been achieved. And if the odds are greater than seeing 18 yo;s, then everyone on here will have to admit it is possible Alan saw it.

It's not just a computer glitch he also said promotions.

It's not even close to compare the two.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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January 27th, 2016 at 7:24:00 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It's not just a computer glitch he also said promotions.

It's not even close to compare the two.



Yes, I was thinking that too.

Promotions should not be included because those can easily come from a marketing department that doesn't understand the math, properly vets the outcome or calculates for team play.

But computer glitches are something different. Slots and E-games go through rigorous testing, development, mathematical calculations and then independent testing with labs usually (from what I understand) on a state by state basis, then followed by test runs in casinos.

So, with that in mind, the chances of finding such a glitch that escaped all that should be astronomical. And yet, we know that has happened.
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Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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January 27th, 2016 at 7:38:23 AM permalink
It can be astronomical but it's happened wayyyyyy more then 18 yos in a row and to boot one is usually based on human error and one is based true odds so it's. It the same thing
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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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January 27th, 2016 at 7:42:04 AM permalink
I think the latter is based on human error too. Faulty memory.
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RS
RS
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January 27th, 2016 at 7:42:50 AM permalink
I would not say it's astronomical.... Have you ever read through the code of a large program, or tested a program for errors or bugs? It's not simple, especially if you're looking at very many lines of code. To follow the logic in the program can be difficult to do. Programmers write comments to explain sections of the code. It's easy to read the comment, read through the code, then think, "Yeah, the code does what the comment says. Next!" But, it can be very difficult to read a segment of code and know EXACTLY what's going on.

Bugs and glitches are found ALL THE TIME in programs you buy, websites online, the OS on your computer or iPhone, etc. And (almost) all those programs have gone through intensive testing looking for bugs & glitches. Are the odds astronomical that there exist glitches in a Microsoft Windows product?


Better yet -- what's this have to do with throwing 18 yos in a row? Come on, let's be real for a sec. Look at the math, try to understand the math, look at the odds of it happening! Next you're gonna tell me someone hit the megabucks jackpot on 3 consecutive spins!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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January 27th, 2016 at 7:55:54 AM permalink
Quote: RS

...Next you're gonna tell me someone hit the megabucks jackpot on 3 consecutive spins!


I was playing blackjack on the Northern Belle back in the late 90's when a guy hit the top jackpot on a 50¢ Silver & Gold slot machine ($2000).



Back then after they paid you, they made you spin off the jackpot. When he did, he hit the same $2000 jackpot again. It was memorable because the machine was loud and it took forever for the attendant to pay him the first time.
Last edited by: Ibeatyouraces on Jan 27, 2016
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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January 27th, 2016 at 8:34:32 AM permalink
I agree rs- Glitches are not even remotely related to throwing 18yos. So much more human error goes into glitches- sabre quantifying it with odds that are not even remotely close to the same - it's apples to oranges
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RS
RS
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January 27th, 2016 at 9:19:47 AM permalink
Prediction: Sometime down the road Alan is going to say something to the effect of the guy didn't throw 18 yo's in a row (consecutively, back-to-back), but something else....."every time it was his turn to shoot the dice, over the course of his many rolls, he threw at least one yo, and he had 18 such hands in a row where at least one yo was rolled." And then the 'mathletes' will be ridiculed by Alan & his lackeys because it was a simple "word problem" not a "math problem" that mathletes can't seem to grasp....or something along those lines.
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