scepticus
Joined: Oct 16, 2013
• Posts: 57
March 9th, 2014 at 9:11:15 AM permalink
Just a quick note "That Don Guy. "
Thanks for at least trying to understand what I was about rather than the usual knee-jerk responses .
Yes, there is a 1 in 9 chance of 4 in-a-row but only on the third spin because if the 3rd in-a-row happens there can never be 4 -in -a-row because a"treble" has won so we restart after a "treble" has occurred.
Thanks again.
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
• Posts: 1226
March 9th, 2014 at 10:10:59 AM permalink
I don't think the math HAS to catch up to you, but it will if you play enough. Odds are, if you're winning, you're going to play frequently. Then after it's all gone you'll feel like the biggest fool.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 5745
March 9th, 2014 at 11:14:43 AM permalink
Quote: scepticus

Just a quick note "That Don Guy. "
Thanks for at least trying to understand what I was about rather than the usual knee-jerk responses .
Yes, there is a 1 in 9 chance of 4 in-a-row but only on the third spin because if the 3rd in-a-row happens there can never be 4 -in -a-row because a"treble" has won so we restart after a "treble" has occurred.

That's true - but by ignoring the possibility of all 4 winning, your assumption that all 4 trebles are equally likely is false.
Let's go back to the "first two spins are 1 (i.e. the first dozen)" example.
Columns 5, 6, 8, and 9 can no longer have a treble.
If the next spin is 2 (the second dozen), then column 1 is a 1-2-3 (first spin, second spin, third spin) treble.
If the next spin is 1, then the third spin is either 1 (1-3-4 column 3 treble), 2 (1-2-4 column 1 treble), or 3 (2-3-4 column 7 treble).
If the next spin is 3, then the third spin is either 1 (2-3-4 column 4 treble), 2 (1-2-4 column 1 treble), or 3 (1-3-4 column 2 treble).
The 1-2-3 treble is 50% more likely than each of the others - and you lose 2 every time the 1-2-3 treble happens.
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
• Posts: 2099
March 9th, 2014 at 1:07:56 PM permalink
ThatDonGuy,

It appears as though Scepticus doesn't comprehend what you're trying to explain to him.

@Scepticus,

The wizardofodds.com has a great section on the gambler's fallacy that all new players should read.
tilt247
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 37
March 11th, 2014 at 11:45:17 AM permalink
Wow, I guess I just love to torture myself by reading these silly posts about progression systems and how people swear by them. I say, whatever works for you do it. Life is too short to care about what other people think about your beliefs, superstitions, eating habits etc. However, most of us don't want to hear how you have this system and it works and you win etc blah blah blah. On the other side, this part of the discussion board was created for a reason... Humor I think. Moving on...
Wait, it's a long term advantage?
Lemieux66
Joined: Feb 16, 2014