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Expected return on Progressive Pai Gow bet
| February 9th, 2010 at 12:29:11 PM permalink | |
| cyclonechibi Member since: Feb 9, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Hey all, thanks in advance for any input on this question! At the casino I frequent, they offer Progressive Fortune Pai Gow Poker. The Fortune bonus payoff is the same as "Paytable 4" on the Wizard's Pai Gow Poker Side Bets page. http://wizardofodds.com/fortunepaigow There is also the optional $1 sidebet to win the progressive jackpot. However, unlike the paytable listed for the Washington casino, you don't have to have a -natural- 7 card straight flush to win it (you can use the joker). The meter goes up $0.23 for every dollar played. Here's the progressive bet payoffs: Bet = $1 7 Card Straight Flush (with or without joker) = 100% of meter (currently over $101,000) 5 Aces = 10% of meter Royal Flush (no bonus for Royal Match) = $500 Straight Flush = $100 4 of a kind = $75 Full House = $4 I see a number of patrons who refuse to play the $1 progressive, asserting that it is a "sucker bet". However, it seems to me that it should have a similar expected return as the Fortune Bonus. So, is the $1 Progressive bet a bad bet? |
| February 9th, 2010 at 12:49:41 PM permalink | |
| cardshark Member since: Nov 30, 2009 Threads: 5 Posts: 195 |
You can calculate this one very easily using the probabilities for similar side bets: http://wizardofodds.com/fortunepaigow#fortune-progressive Hand ............ Ways - Payout - EV 7 card SF......... 228 - $101,000 - $0.1494 5 Aces........... 1128 - $10,100 - $0.0739 RF............... 26092 - $500 - $0.0846 SF.............. 184644 - $100 - $0.1198 4 of a kind... 307472 - $75 - $0.1496 FH............. 4188528 - $4 - $0.1087 Total ways: 154,143,080 EV: $0.686 (return 68.6%) Pretty bad deal. |
| February 9th, 2010 at 12:55:19 PM permalink | |
| cardshark Member since: Nov 30, 2009 Threads: 5 Posts: 195 | FYI, EV becomes > $1 with jackpot > $243,012. You never know, it could happen... |
| February 9th, 2010 at 12:56:01 PM permalink | |
| Croupier Member since: Nov 15, 2009 Threads: 53 Posts: 1078 | Only because I dont know the maths, and would quite like to know, how much would the jackpot have to be for it to work out to be not so bad a bet? EDIT - Damn youre good cardshark. Beat me to the question I was gonna ask with the answer. [This space is intentionally left blank] |
| February 9th, 2010 at 1:01:43 PM permalink | |
| cyclonechibi Member since: Feb 9, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Thank you for your answer! That's really interesting that the jackpot would have to more than double to make it a good bet. I suppose I keep playing it though...you just never know! :) |
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