Expected return on Progressive Pai Gow bet

Hey all, thanks in advance for any input on this question!

At the casino I frequent, they offer Progressive Fortune Pai Gow Poker. The Fortune bonus payoff is the same as "Paytable 4" on the Wizard's Pai Gow Poker Side Bets page.

There is also the optional $1 sidebet to win the progressive jackpot. However, unlike the paytable listed for the Washington casino, you don't have to have a -natural- 7 card straight flush to win it (you can use the joker). The meter goes up $0.23 for every dollar played.

Here's the progressive bet payoffs:

Bet = $1
7 Card Straight Flush (with or without joker) = 100% of meter (currently over $101,000)
5 Aces = 10% of meter
Royal Flush (no bonus for Royal Match) = $500
Straight Flush = $100
4 of a kind = $75
Full House = $4

I see a number of patrons who refuse to play the $1 progressive, asserting that it is a "sucker bet". However, it seems to me that it should have a similar expected return as the Fortune Bonus.

So, is the $1 Progressive bet a bad bet?

Quote: cyclonechibi

Hey all, thanks in advance for any input on this question!

At the casino I frequent, they offer Progressive Fortune Pai Gow Poker. The Fortune bonus payoff is the same as "Paytable 4" on the Wizard's Pai Gow Poker Side Bets page. https://wizardofodds.com/fortunepaigow

There is also the optional $1 sidebet to win the progressive jackpot. However, unlike the paytable listed for the Washington casino, you don't have to have a -natural- 7 card straight flush to win it (you can use the joker). The meter goes up $0.23 for every dollar played.

Here's the progressive bet payoffs:

Bet = $1
7 Card Straight Flush (with or without joker) = 100% of meter (currently over $101,000)
5 Aces = 10% of meter
Royal Flush (no bonus for Royal Match) = $500
Straight Flush = $100
4 of a kind = $75
Full House = $4

I see a number of patrons who refuse to play the $1 progressive, asserting that it is a "sucker bet". However, it seems to me that it should have a similar expected return as the Fortune Bonus.

So, is the $1 Progressive bet a bad bet?

You can calculate this one very easily using the probabilities for similar side bets: https://wizardofodds.com/fortunepaigow#fortune-progressive

Hand ............ Ways - Payout - EV
7 card SF......... 228 - $101,000 - $0.1494
5 Aces........... 1128 - $10,100 - $0.0739
RF............... 26092 - $500 - $0.0846
SF.............. 184644 - $100 - $0.1198
4 of a kind... 307472 - $75 - $0.1496
FH............. 4188528 - $4 - $0.1087

Total ways: 154,143,080
EV: $0.686 (return 68.6%)

Pretty bad deal.

FYI, EV becomes > $1 with jackpot > $243,012.

You never know, it could happen...

Only because I dont know the maths, and would quite like to know, how much would the jackpot have to be for it to work out to be not so bad a bet?

EDIT - Damn youre good cardshark. Beat me to the question I was gonna ask with the answer.

Thank you for your answer! That's really interesting that the jackpot would have to more than double to make it a good bet. I suppose I keep playing it though...you just never know! :)