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How many dice rolls until things even out?
| February 2nd, 2012 at 4:28:34 PM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Joseph Member since: Feb 2, 2012 Threads: 1 Posts: 1 | How many times would you have to roll 2 dice (2d6) until they started to match their probability averages? In other words, I could roll snake eyes (total 2) five times in a row, but how long until the rolls begin to get closer to the probability averages?
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| February 3rd, 2012 at 5:57:04 PM permalink | |
| Ayecarumba Member since: Nov 17, 2009 Threads: 113 Posts: 2047 | Based on the Wizard's response to previous "dice influence test" questions, I suspect 3,600 rolls should produce a relatively uniform distribution most of the time. Read the article on the WoO site here (scroll down to the question with the large graph.) |
| February 3rd, 2012 at 6:42:50 PM permalink | |
| pacomartin Member since: Jan 14, 2010 Threads: 547 Posts: 6211 |
Just ran a quick simulation, and 3600 didn't always get very close. The Chi-square test frequently produced percentages well over 50%. Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear |
| February 3rd, 2012 at 7:25:17 PM permalink | |
| Doc Member since: Feb 27, 2010 Threads: 21 Posts: 2825 | Bold emphasis added. I haven't thought this through, but is the key issue the wording "started to match" and "begin to get closer"? Doesn't this tendency start right away? No, it doesn't get closer with every roll from roll #1. Some rolls take the data farther from the theoretical. Even after a million rolls, each roll makes the observed percentage of each number either increase or decrease, taking it either closer or farther from the theoretical, not always closer, but that's the tendency from the very beginning, isn't it? Did I misunderstand the question? |
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