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Quick terminology question
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8 members have voted
| May 12th, 2011 at 3:16:46 PM permalink | |
| gog Member since: Jan 7, 2011 Threads: 4 Posts: 104 | Was talking gambling with some friends and started confusing each other as we were throwing out probabilities. Suppose that for a particular event A has a 60% chance of winning, and B has 40%. What is the correct way to describe this? |
| May 12th, 2011 at 6:22:44 PM permalink | |
| pacomartin Member since: Jan 14, 2010 Threads: 547 Posts: 6211 | Event B has two thirds of the likelihood of Event A. You certainly wouldn't want to use the first one. If the respective probabilities were 2% and 22% you would want to convey that one event is 11 times as likely as the other event. Saying it had a 20% advantage would be very misleading. Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear |
| May 13th, 2011 at 1:07:43 PM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 46 Posts: 2521 |
You can't start talking about advantage until you factor in the bet amounts and odds. If you and your friend are betting even-money, where you have A and your friend has B, and assuming that A and B are mutually exclusive, you have a 20% advantage: you win $1 60% of the time, you lose $1 40% of the time, so you end up with an average of +$0.20 per dollar wagered. If your friend makes you lay 3 to win 2 (for example, odds on a don't pass point of 5), then it's a fair wager with no advantage. "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
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