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Rule of 72--why 72?

August 19th, 2010 at 10:30:19 AM permalink
mkl654321
Member since: Aug 8, 2010
Threads: 65
Posts: 3412
The Rule of 72 states that you divide a rate of return (such as interest on a bond) into 72, and that gives you the number of periods it will take to double your money. For instance, an investment that pays 10% annually will take 7.2 years to double in value (the Rule of 72 assumes that interest is compounded).

My somewhat idle question is, why 72, other than the somewhat trite answer "because that's the number that works when you plug it into the equation"? I have two theories:

1. That number has some kind of logarithmic relation to the concept of doubling a componded investment.
2. The number 72, like the magic Babylonian number 60, can be divided by so many different numbers (factors), and that has something to do with its utility in the formula.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 19th, 2010 at 11:21:18 AM permalink
thecesspit
Member since: Apr 19, 2010
Threads: 36
Posts: 2644
Something to do with the natural log of 2 being ~.69?

A quick wiki search gives me : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72 which suggests 72 is used cos it's easy for common divisors as you suggest, 69.3 works for small discrete values of interest and 70 works for continous rates of growth.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept through nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire, for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 19th, 2010 at 12:38:51 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 256
Posts: 5769
First, the "rule of 72" is an approximation of the time needed to double your money. The following table shows the "rule of 72" values and the exact number of years, for various interest rates.

Interest Rate Rule of 72 Exact Difference
0.01 72.00 69.66 2.34
0.02 36.00 35.00 1.00
0.03 24.00 23.45 0.55
0.04 18.00 17.67 0.33
0.05 14.40 14.21 0.19
0.06 12.00 11.90 0.10
0.07 10.29 10.24 0.04
0.08 9.00 9.01 -0.01
0.09 8.00 8.04 -0.04
0.10 7.20 7.27 -0.07
0.11 6.55 6.64 -0.10
0.12 6.00 6.12 -0.12
0.13 5.54 5.67 -0.13
0.14 5.14 5.29 -0.15
0.15 4.80 4.96 -0.16
0.16 4.50 4.67 -0.17
0.17 4.24 4.41 -0.18
0.18 4.00 4.19 -0.19
0.19 3.79 3.98 -0.20
0.20 3.60 3.80 -0.20


Why 72? It doesn't have to be exactly 72. That is just the number that works out best for realistic interest rates you're likely to see on an investment. The rule of 72 works out almost exactly right for an interest rate of 7.8469%. The reason something works in the first place is because the graphs of 1/x and 1/ln(1+x) look very similar for small positive values of x.
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August 19th, 2010 at 2:23:44 PM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 508
Posts: 5165
Usually if you have some Calculus it is regarded as the first approximation to the Taylor Series for the natural logarithm. It is sometimes called the "rule of 70" since that works reasonably well. As the Wizard says it is a natural for 9 years at 8% and 8 years at 9% which used to be a fairly common value.

It makes it easy to calculate when you will have 8 times you present value at 9% interest. Apply the rule three time and you get 27 years.
Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear

 

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