I was on the receiving end of this beat. I had pocket aces vs pocket kings. Flop was A-K-K. Nonetheless, quads bet substantial and I raised him all in. My friends and I were wondering what the odds of this hand with the same exact flop happening would be. I know the odds of a pocket pair are roughly 16:1, but this entire scenario really had us all intrigued. Anyone have any idea?
If you want the odds of replicating the exact same scenario (same opponent, you are on the bad beat side) before the dealer deals the cards, it would be roughly
which equals about 1 in 464 million.
(I would use this estimate. It sounds the most impressive among friends!)
If you don't care which opponent at the table gets the KK, as long as you are dealt AA, assuming a 10 player table, then the odds would be about 1 in 52 million.
If you want to set an initial condition that you are already dealt AA, but opponents have not looked at their cards, and calculate the odds from there, then about 1 in 240,000.