jaredL
Joined: Mar 4, 2014
• Posts: 1
March 4th, 2014 at 3:01:56 PM permalink
I was on the receiving end of this beat. I had pocket aces vs pocket kings. Flop was A-K-K. Nonetheless, quads bet substantial and I raised him all in. My friends and I were wondering what the odds of this hand with the same exact flop happening would be. I know the odds of a pocket pair are roughly 16:1, but this entire scenario really had us all intrigued. Anyone have any idea?
chaunceyb3
Joined: Feb 22, 2013
• Posts: 346
March 4th, 2014 at 3:27:24 PM permalink
Quote: jaredL

I was on the receiving end of this beat. I had pocket aces vs pocket kings. Flop was A-K-K. Nonetheless, quads bet substantial and I raised him all in. My friends and I were wondering what the odds of this hand with the same exact flop happening would be. I know the odds of a pocket pair are roughly 16:1, but this entire scenario really had us all intrigued. Anyone have any idea?

If you want the odds of replicating the exact same scenario (same opponent, you are on the bad beat side) before the dealer deals the cards, it would be roughly

(1/220)*(1/220)*(2/19,200)

which equals about 1 in 464 million.

(I would use this estimate. It sounds the most impressive among friends!)

---

If you don't care which opponent at the table gets the KK, as long as you are dealt AA, assuming a 10 player table, then the odds would be about 1 in 52 million.

If you want to set an initial condition that you are already dealt AA, but opponents have not looked at their cards, and calculate the odds from there, then about 1 in 240,000.
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
• Posts: 2019
March 4th, 2014 at 4:05:47 PM permalink
I know what I would calculate those odds as.......OUCH odds :)

“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
• Posts: 10543
March 4th, 2014 at 4:12:38 PM permalink
deleted
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
• Posts: 2019
March 4th, 2014 at 4:31:57 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If there is the BBJP there, I'd love to have the aces in this situation!

If there were a bad beat jpot this guy would have been balling with 4 honeys sipping back Hennesey and not posting on WoV :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009