Galileo
Galileo
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September 15th, 2012 at 9:43:00 AM permalink
Hi...last Saturday night in a ten handed game we found out that six of us had pocket pairs pre flop (including two people with pocket Aces). The other four pairs were KK, 55, 66 & JJ. Is there any possibility of calculating what the odds were for this exact situation occurring? I think I had read that simply pocket Aces against Pocket Aces in a ten handed game are around 6,000 to 1. I can't begin to try and figure out what the odds of the scenario of six pocket pairs pre flop that include two pairs of pocket Aces would be. Can the Wizard help figure this out?
bigfoot66
bigfoot66
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September 15th, 2012 at 10:13:00 AM permalink
The odds are 100% that it happened in your game on Saturday. A lot of people have questions like this, but speaking about probability after the fact doesn't make much sense. For example, in video poker it is just as difficult to be dealt exactly (Kc Jh 7s As 2s) as it is to be dealt (As Ks Qs Js 10s). One is a nothing hand, the other is a sequential royal flush. When the first one comes out, you push the buttons and keep going. You probably forget about the hand entirely. When the royal shows up, its a big deal. An employee of the casino hands you a big stack of hundred dollar bills.

The point is that, with every deal of the cards, you end up with some highly unlikely set of hands. This is what makes poker fun, you see different situations every time you play. Also consider how many poker hands you have played in your lifetime. You said that two players with poket aces is 6000 to 1. On a typical casino poker table you might play 30 hands an hour. That means that every 200 hours you should see this happen. A casino with 10 full poker tables would see this happen about 2 and a half times a day.

While it is unlikely that this will happen on your next hand, these events are likely to occur to you at some point in your poker lifetime.
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Galileo
Galileo
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September 15th, 2012 at 10:45:37 AM permalink
I'm actually looking for a constructive mathematical answer. Thanks for the confirmation that it did happen at my game 100%. Big laughter roll.....not. I'm also not interested in the fact that it is as as likely that Kc Jh 7s As 2s is dealt in video poker as a Royal Flush is. So.......back to someone who can give me the odds on the scenario I describe in my question happening would be helpful. Strike 1, but I'm hoping that there are more helpful people in this forum who will address the question itself as opposed to discounting the validity of my question. Thank you to those who will attempt to answer
MangoJ
MangoJ
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September 15th, 2012 at 11:12:55 AM permalink
The odds are about 3*10^11 to 1.

Does this number have any meaning ? No really.
bigfoot66
bigfoot66
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September 15th, 2012 at 12:56:23 PM permalink
Listen, I am not trying to insult you or make you laugh. I am trying to explain some basic ideas about statistics so that you can put the situation in context.
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buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 15th, 2012 at 1:10:56 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

Listen dummy, I am not trying to insult you or make you laugh. I am trying to explain some basic ideas about statistics so that you can put the situation in context.



I always pay more attention when somebody says " Listen Dummy " .
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