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Negative expectation game?
| January 8th, 2012 at 6:15:54 PM permalink | |
| Mijogi Member since: Dec 31, 2011 Threads: 4 Posts: 8 | I have heard this term floating around especially when I talk about playing craps. But wouldn't any game with a house edge be a negative expectation game? Am I confusing the deffinition? It seems that every game with a house edge, you should expect to lose. Which would be a negative expectation. The only exception would be counting cards or dare I say dice setting. Someone clear this up for me, and set me straight if need be. Thanks for any info. |
| January 8th, 2012 at 6:18:20 PM permalink | |
| Nareed Member since: Nov 11, 2009 Threads: 218 Posts: 7281 |
Yes.
No.
Yes. This space is closed for remodeling |
| January 8th, 2012 at 6:22:32 PM permalink | |
| Mijogi Member since: Dec 31, 2011 Threads: 4 Posts: 8 | So what game in the casino is NOT a negative expectation game? It seems that it goes without saying that they all are, so why do people feel the need to point out that certain games are when they all are? |
| January 8th, 2012 at 6:27:11 PM permalink | |
| Nareed Member since: Nov 11, 2009 Threads: 218 Posts: 7281 |
Some video poker machines have a positive expectation if you play perfect strategy. Full pay Deuces Wild, for example, has a return of 100.76%. Other VP games with less than 100% returns may return more if you take comps into account, but I'm not qualified to comment on that. This space is closed for remodeling |
| January 8th, 2012 at 6:30:37 PM permalink | |
| FinsRule Member since: Dec 23, 2009 Threads: 52 Posts: 779 |
Because since there is a negative expectation, there's nothing you can do (i.e. create a system) to change that. That's the short answer. |
| January 8th, 2012 at 7:45:34 PM permalink | |
| dm Member since: Apr 29, 2010 Threads: 14 Posts: 699 |
Nareed is wrong again. You have to figure comps, cash back, slot club, etc. to determine whether a game is negative for you. |
| January 9th, 2012 at 1:59:24 PM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4827 | Well, that is a bit like differentiating Gross and Net income: its important but consistency can be more important. So in Vegas we seem to quote rooms w/o the tax, we quote game edges in terms of theoretical and practical, but not personal. Comps, slot club, number of drinks, quality of the booze and quality of the enjoyment derived from it all is simply too personal to be factored in. So yes, pretty much everything is a negative expectation game. Individuals can start with that and hone skills or squeeze stones to arrive at a personal expectation and enjoyment level. |
| January 9th, 2012 at 3:00:48 PM permalink | |
| mrjjj Member since: Sep 4, 2010 Threads: 62 Posts: 1304 | Mijogi Stated: "So what game in the casino is NOT a negative expectation game? It seems that it goes without saying that they all are, so why do people feel the need to point out that certain games are when they all are?" Dont go confusing these guys, I've brought this subject up before, stating.............So your game has a lower H.E. than mine SO, we'll both lose in the end. OMG, its like fireworks went off, people here throwing chairs and pissed as hell I even brought it up !! (lol) Losing is losing REGARDLESS of the speed. Oh wait, thats right, unless of course you are an advantage player. (hahaha) Ken If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong.
Playing at the casino doesn't make you a pro any more than standing in a garage makes you a car. I prefer to be hated for telling the truth, than loved for telling a lie. No person has yet convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way. Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things roulette AP players don't like to do. I'm sure AP (roulette) worked just fine back in 1923. Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing. 5.26%, so what?......I get taxed everyday. Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. Don't play/study roulette for a TOTAL of 9 hours in your lifetime and then preach that a person can not do 'well' with it.
Also, don't let the '2+2 will never equal 5' crowd bring you down. TRIAL & ERROR guys, I can't say it enough! When you're finished changing, you're finished. |
| January 9th, 2012 at 3:41:56 PM permalink | |
| charliepatrick Member since: Jun 17, 2011 Threads: 2 Posts: 152 | You are correct in that casinos are in business to make money so most games offered have a built-in house advantage. Some exceptions I can think of (1) Promotions which enhance the paid odds or chances, giving the player a positive expectation for one hand. (When I first went to Vegas in 80s, there used to be promotion books for casinos; so I'm sure there are other similar ideas.) (a) "Ace in the hole" - the player is deemed to start with a first card of an Ace. (b) "Blackjack Joker" - the odds paid to a winner are 2/1 (or 5/1 Blackjack). (c) "No lose" or "2/1" on even money bets at Roulette. (2) Lotteries where the top prize has rolled over without a previous winner OR (3) Games with a progressive jackpot(s) where the top prize increases, typically using a percentage of previous bets and has become so large the expected payback exceeds the initial bet. (4) Roulette bonus - a jackpot is built up by enhancing the basic odds by .2% and issued randomly (electronic roulette only). Typically progressive games or lotteries are initially a lousy bet until the top prize becomes significantly large. |
| January 9th, 2012 at 5:35:09 PM permalink | |
| Ayecarumba Member since: Nov 17, 2009 Threads: 113 Posts: 2047 | Counting Blackjack and Sports Betting may also have long term positive expected results. Some may say dice setting/influencing, but most would disagree. |
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