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Odds Behind the Line?
| December 29th, 2011 at 9:51:28 AM permalink | |
| downtowner Member since: Dec 7, 2011 Threads: 5 Posts: 42 | Everyone talks about the odds behind the line as leading to a great low house edge. I understand that by taking the odds the house edge is reduced. But I'm not really sure why this matters if you are trying to minimize losses. The house edge at craps is always against you. If you try to find the lowest minimum bet game and want to minimize your dollar losses, why would placing the odds matter? Placing odds seems to me to be a "doesn't matter" bet. All you are doing is increasing your money at risk and reducing the odds against you. But the amount of money you are likely to lose to the house edge doesn't change. If you are a non-minimum bet player, say $10 chip kind of person, then betting the minimum and saving the rest for odds is great. But for minimum bet people like me, the odds don't seem to matter. Is this analysis wrong? If so, what am I missing? |
| December 29th, 2011 at 10:12:08 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5727 | I understand what you're saying. Personally, I chalk it up to semantics. I don't understand why so many people link the two. After all, the PL bet can win or lose before you even get a chance to put odds behind it, so how does it effect the edge? On the flip side, I DO take the odds, only because I like the idea of placing a bet that has a house edge of zero. I'm just too timid (or maybe it's my short bankroll) to put down max odds. (Unless max is 2X LOL) Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| December 29th, 2011 at 10:16:02 AM permalink | |
| FinsRule Member since: Dec 23, 2009 Threads: 52 Posts: 779 | If you're trying to minimize losses, you don't play at all. If you're trying to get the best value for your bet at craps, you play odds. |
| December 29th, 2011 at 10:32:39 AM permalink | |
| zeekm Member since: Jan 28, 2011 Threads: 0 Posts: 2 | The logic doesn't necessarily mean that you should bet more than you are able or willing. It just means you may want to bet differently. Say you are at a $10 table and you have $10 to bet. You put it on the pass line and your number comes in, you win $10. If you were to play a $5 table instead, you can put $5 on the pass line and $5 odds. It's the same $10 bet; but this one will win you $11, $12.50 or $15 instead of just $10. Odds do matter. |
| December 29th, 2011 at 10:39:33 AM permalink | |
| downtowner Member since: Dec 7, 2011 Threads: 5 Posts: 42 | I wouldn't play if I didn't enjoy it. I like craps. I feel it is the most exciting game in Las Vegas. In every other game, with the partial exception of sports book, you and your fellow player win or lose independently. I guess in blackjack if the dealer goes bust everyone wins. But generally in a casino the most us against the house action is at a craps table. That is why the yelling and wooping it up generally comes from there. I just don't want to spend any more than i have to in order to participate. |
| December 29th, 2011 at 10:42:56 AM permalink | |
| Paigowdan Member since: Apr 28, 2010 Threads: 54 Posts: 2130 |
I would make an additional point about playing odds, to add something to FinsRule quote: - If you're trying to get the best value for your bet a craps, you play odds within reason. Increasing exposure has to be considered. Would you mortgage your home to play 100,000 times odds, thinking "what a deal!", only to get slammed with a seven-out? The difference between 1% and 0.5% HE and 1% and 0.000000001% HE is meaningless in a session, but exposing an affordable $50 on the turn of the dice, versus an utterly unaffordable $500,000 on the same roll is huge. Losing a fortune and your ass only to say, "Hey, it's okay, because the HE was essentially zero - I was smart" is not smart play. I can play 3x-4x-5x odds and be happy with it, because my exposure is balanced. Gambling doesn't build character, it reveals..no character. But a lot of characters. |
| December 29th, 2011 at 11:51:54 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5727 | Very well stated. Here's how I describe it: The first time I ever tried to play craps seriously, I'd bet $10 on the pass line, with $10 odds when someone else was shooting. When it was my turn, I'd make that $25 and $25. After doing that a few times, the player next to me suggested I bet $10 on the pass line, and $40 odds. When it won, and I collected so much more than I had before, it was as if a new world of gambling had been opened. Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| December 29th, 2011 at 12:49:09 PM permalink | |
| downtowner Member since: Dec 7, 2011 Threads: 5 Posts: 42 | I actually use a similar philosophy. I bet the pass line and then only bet the odds when the point is 4 or 10. I think of this "system" as betting to maximize excitement. Oh boy! |
| December 29th, 2011 at 1:37:24 PM permalink | |
| ncfatcat Member since: Jun 25, 2011 Threads: 1 Posts: 168 | Since the odds of winning the Powerball Lottery are 173,000,000 to 1 (app) I won't buy a ticket unless the payoff is more than $173,000,000. Wherever you go - There you are |
| December 29th, 2011 at 1:48:16 PM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5727 | That's bad logic because: - There are thousands of ways to win small prizes that lower the ratio, and - There is the chance of mutiple winners which will lower the payoff. Mind you, I don't play it at all... Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
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