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Three card Poker Strategy

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October 26th, 2011 at 2:46:08 AM permalink
DrReyman
Member since: Oct 26, 2011
Threads: 1
Posts: 11
I'm wondering what the odds are if the player 'plays' every hand regardless of what it is. Never bets on Pair Plus. Starts the Ante bet at $5 (there by matching $5 in the play). If player loses that hand, increase ante bet to $10 next hand. If lost, increase ante to $30. If lost, increase ante to $90. If lost, bet max ante $100 (on a $5-$100 table) . If at any time a player gets a push (due to a dealer not qualifying with a queen or better, and wins ante only) or wins the hand, then start the ante bet back at $5 and repeat process. Buy in at $470.
¿ ... ?

Here's the thing,
I've tried this 19 times playing about an average of 2 and a half hours each time. I've lost it all three times and the other 16 times I've been up varying amounts from $110 to $1000. I'm wondering if this is a good thing to do or if some how I'm just beating the odds temporarily and getting lucky? Or found a good place to play with how the table is worked with shuffling, dealer, etc.
Anyone?
October 26th, 2011 at 4:17:06 AM permalink
FinsRule
Member since: Dec 23, 2009
Threads: 52
Posts: 779
The odds are not good if you play every hand.

The odds are good that you will lose all $470 playing that way if you try this strategy for a few hours at a 3CP table.
October 26th, 2011 at 7:04:54 AM permalink
Mosca
Member since: Dec 14, 2009
Threads: 74
Posts: 1628
There is no such thing as a betting strategy that will alter the chance of winning or losing. The only chance you have in the game depends on your looking at your cards and making a decision to play or fold. It's the difference between the house edge and the element of risk; you can lessen the element of risk by folding the bad hands.
NO KILL I
October 26th, 2011 at 12:17:08 PM permalink
DrReyman
Member since: Oct 26, 2011
Threads: 1
Posts: 11
By folding the bad hands, but if the dealer doesn't have at least a queen then you'd get paid your ante. Odds are over 69% of getting a queen but doesn't seem that way.
October 26th, 2011 at 12:23:37 PM permalink
rdw4potus
Member since: Mar 11, 2010
Threads: 57
Posts: 1976
Quote: DrReyman
By folding the band hands, but if the dealer doesn't at least have a queen then you'd get paid your ante.


Sure. And you're risking 2 chips to win 1 in this case. What are the odds that the dealer will have at least a queen? If they're better than the 1:2 payout on your bet, you're in trouble...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 26th, 2011 at 12:26:03 PM permalink
DrReyman
Member since: Oct 26, 2011
Threads: 1
Posts: 11
That's the part I always think about. What kind of an edge the house has by only having to pay out the ante if they don't have at least a queen high.
October 26th, 2011 at 12:30:42 PM permalink
DrReyman
Member since: Oct 26, 2011
Threads: 1
Posts: 11
Are the odds progressive? As in, what are the odds that I will not only LOSE 4 hands in a row, but also that the dealer will qualify all 4 times in a row. Make it 5 times in a row to include the $100 life line bet at the end. Does each hand have exactly the same chance regardless of the previous hands or not?
October 26th, 2011 at 12:35:52 PM permalink
rdw4potus
Member since: Mar 11, 2010
Threads: 57
Posts: 1976
Quote: DrReyman
Are the odds progressive? As in, what are the odds that I will not only LOSE 4 hands in a row, but also that the dealer will qualify all 4 times in a row. Make it 5 times in a row to include the $100 life line bet at the end. Does each hand have exactly the same chance regardless of the previous hands or not?


If the deck is reshuffled after each hand, then the odds are the same for each hand. The past hands do not influence the future hands in any way.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 26th, 2011 at 12:46:16 PM permalink
Mosca
Member since: Dec 14, 2009
Threads: 74
Posts: 1628
Quote: DrReyman
Are the odds progressive? As in, what are the odds that I will not only LOSE 4 hands in a row, but also that the dealer will qualify all 4 times in a row. Make it 5 times in a row to include the $100 life line bet at the end. Does each hand have exactly the same chance regardless of the previous hands or not?


Each hand has exactly the same odds.

I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of times I've sat down and lost more than 5 hands in a row to start. I've lost 10 in a row more times than I can remember. Go to Bodog and fire up their 3 card simulator, or 3 Card Poker Online. It's just the way the game is. And from my perspective, without the bonus bet it's boring. It doesn't move fast enough to justify the higher edge over blackjack. It's the chance to win 40x that makes the blood pump.

edit: I just quickly played according to your strategy. Starting with $1000, and $25/bet, it took 39 hands to lose $500. The highest my bankroll got was $1050 (I won the first hand). I won 13 hands and lost 26. Once during the 39 hands I lost 6 in a row.

Hands Played: 39
Most Money: $1,050
Least Money: $500
Pair Plus Win %: 12.8% (I didn't play PP, but the game calculates it anyhow)
Fold %: 0.0%
Lose %: 66.7%
Win %: 33.3%
NO KILL I
October 26th, 2011 at 12:47:41 PM permalink
DrReyman
Member since: Oct 26, 2011
Threads: 1
Posts: 11
Quote: rdw4potus
If the deck is reshuffled after each hand, then the odds are the same for each hand. The past hands do not influence the future hands in any way.


Thank you.
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