Blackjack: Best stand on a no possible bust?

Hey Wizard, I have been following your original site for years. Great site and forum!

In a typical Vegas game of blackjack, when dealt an initial hand total of 3-10 what are the best circumstances for standing and still beating the dealer? So even though there is no chance of busting, the player stands pat on his low total. ( Insane or just the sort of confidence a woman loves? haha)




At first I examined the strategy table, but it would seem the simple answer is that you want to stand pat in the circumstances that would most likely lead to a dealer bust. So the 'ballsy stand' would be anything 3-10 against a dealer 6? Is it that simple or more complicated? I made the assumption that even a ballsy player would still split aces or hit on an 11 total.

Bonus question would be, how would be, what is the house edge on the "Ballsy Stand Simple Strategy"?

I agree with your name.

Fair enough, if it makes you feel better, your response is what I would expect from one with your name.

In all seriousness, I am interested in an answer to my question. I understand the math behind perfect strategy and I am curious if my intuition is close to the real answer. You can program yourself by memorizing a strategy table, but to expand you mind you must apply what you learned to a new circumstance. Anyway, Im hoping the experts chime in.

I am an expert.

Quote: IdiotWheel

Fair enough, if it makes you feel better, your response is what I would expect from one with your name.

In all seriousness, I am interested in an answer to my question. I understand the math behind perfect strategy and I am curious if my intuition is close to the real answer. You can program yourself by memorizing a strategy table, but to expand you mind you must apply what you learned to a new circumstance. Anyway, Im hoping the experts chime in.

Anything less than 17 in BJ is Zero, so as you said, you would only win a dealer bust. Your total, whether it is 3 or 16, is meaningless if you are standing pat. So just look at the Dealer's Up Card Bust Percentage.
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html
So if you are wondering how you'd do, you'd get slaughtered even if the dealer had a 5 or 6 up every time. You'd only win about 40-42% of hands, depending on the number of decks. I don't quite understand the bonus question. Are you always standing on 3-11, or just when it's a 6? Also, you said Ballsy "simple strategy". What strategy are you talking about? A strategy to give the house some extra edge but to look cool?

Quote: matilda

I am an expert.

Lol this reminds me of "can i speak to your manager?" "I AM the manager." "sh!t."

Thanks for the charts cclub79, that is very helpful.

So, like you said, on a multi-deck table the dealer will bust >42% of the time with a 6 showing. Looking at the charts it would only make sense to ever stand on a dealer 5 or 6. Lets narrow it down to just standing on dealer 6 for simplicity.

So with a dealer 6 showing, a player who always stands pat will win 42% of the time. Obviously, that is the best you can do by standing pat.



I guess the better question would be, WHAT are you giving up by NOT applying simple or perfect strategy when the dealer has 6? Obviously you would do better then 42%. How ever you would still be faced with the possibility of busting yourself, or losing to the dealer.

There must be at least one square on the perfect strategy chart where if you stood pat against a dealer 6 your odds are maximized (obviously never being as great as with perfect strategy ). I imagine it must be a dealer 6 versus a player, 4, 5, or 6.


I apologize again for the question, this is more of an "interesting probability/math" question as opposed to a "maximize your gambling returns" question.

As requested, the extended Basic Strategy for Ballsiness:

Ballsy: Stand on a total of 3-10.
Ballsier: Split your 20 and double down in the dark.
Ballsiest: Announce to that lady beside you that the ducks are coming, and ask to 'hit me three times' on your 15.
Balls of fire and nuclear waste: Point at the pit boss yelling 'hey look, there's an ugly asshole standing behind you!' and when the dealer turns around to look, quickly take a peek at her hole card.

Let me know how it turns out, buy me a drink if you get laid.

Quote: IdiotWheel

'ballsy stand' would be anything 3-10

you always hit with 11 or less, why not? and if you have 8 or better you have a much better hand a very good percentage of the time. You should only fear hitting a 12 or better with at least one card

These Blackjack appendices are filled with neat tables! I was perusing this one:
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix5.html

And had another thought. If the goal was to find a best case scenario to stand on a 3-10, there are really two approaches. As discusses above, you could figure out the optimal situation choose to stand when the dealer is most likely to bust and lose.

Alternatively, you could choose a 3-10 player hand in which the player return is already very poor. In this case the ballsy (fine...stupid) stand would just make that poor hand that much worse. This would be the pessimist play.

Looking at the appendix 5 chart: It looks like for single digit player hands, the worst hand is a Player 6 Versus a Dealer 10. This has a player return of a poor -.3377 when simple strategy is applied. How much worse can that get if you stubbornly stand pat with that 6!?

thoughts?