Silly Craps Question

Hello all. Newbie to the forum. Apologies in advance if this is an easy question or is addressed elsewhere on the site.

Playing craps at Mohegan Sun last week the dealer got into a heated argument with the roller over what-i-don't-know and totally killed the mood of the table. I was playing a $5 (table min) line bet with max 5X odds, as well as place bets inside. Sensing a bad feeling, I took back my odds and place bets. Sure enough next roll (once the yelling stopped) the guy crapped out. My question is what would be the best bet to make once I took back my other bets to hedge against the loss on my line bet, assuming the next roll was a 7?

I am required by forum law to remind you that one of the Wizard's commandments is: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

To answer the question though: There are two basic ways. If you absolutely know a seven is coming next hop the 7 3-ways. Do NOT bet "any seven" / "big red". They are the exact same thing but hopping the 7 3-ways is a better bet, it's like doing big6/8 rather than placing it. The "smarter" way to do it would be to "lay" the number. So if you had $5 and the point is six, you could lay $25 and get $19 back on a seven. A simpler way to do this with the best house advantage would be to throw a $5 on the don't come - the only problem with this strat is if a seven is the next roll you're boned.

Quote: redsox

the guy crapped out.

No, it appears he Sevened Out.

If you wanted to hedge your passline contract bet, a $5 Come bet would probably be the way to go. even if the seven did not appear on the next roll, you would still have a fighting chance at getting a point number and being live for another roll.

Quote: redsox

Hello all. Newbie to the forum. Apologies in advance if this is an easy question or is addressed elsewhere on the site.

Playing craps at Mohegan Sun last week the dealer got into a heated argument with the roller over what-i-don't-know and totally killed the mood of the table. I was playing a $5 (table min) line bet with max 5X odds, as well as place bets inside. Sensing a bad feeling, I took back my odds and place bets. Sure enough next roll (once the yelling stopped) the guy crapped out. My question is what would be the best bet to make once I took back my other bets to hedge against the loss on my line bet, assuming the next roll was a 7?

Tell everyone within earshot that you're going to go across the river. What's across the river you ask? FOXWOODS!!

Quote: ahiromu

I am required by forum law to remind you that one of the Wizard's commandments is: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
To answer the question though: If you absolutely know a seven is coming next hop the 7 3-ways. Do NOT bet "any seven" / "big red". They are the exact same thing but hopping the 7 3-ways is a better bet, it's like doing big6/8 rather than placing it.

A 3way7 hop bet is only "better" than the Seven bet when the hop bets pay 16 for 1 or 15 to 1.
If the hop bets pay 15 for 1 (14 to 1), just bet the Seven. Both bets will pay the exact amount and at a very high HA.

Example: $3 Seven pays 4 to 1 (or 5 for 1) so it would pay $15 and down ($3*4 +$3 original bet) for a $12 net profit.
$3 3way 7 has $1 on each of the 3 hop bets (1-6, 2-5, 3-4) pays $16 and down ($1*15 +$1 original bet that won) for a $13 net profit ($15 -$2 that lost). You profit 1 extra unit where $1 is your unit size.

If hop bets pay 15 for 1 (14 to 1)
$3 3way 7 has $1 on each of the 3 hop bets (1-6, 2-5, 3-4) pays $15 and down ($1*14 +$1 original bet that won) for a $12 net profit ($14 -$2 that lost). You profit 0 extra unit, just like the Seven bet.

The difference? It takes a min $3 to make a 3way7 bet and only $1 to make the Seven bet.
Keep these bets to a minimum since the Seven bet carries a 16.67% HA.
Tough to over come very large HAs the longer one makes that type of bet.

Quote: redsox

Hello all. Newbie to the forum. Apologies in advance if this is an easy question or is addressed elsewhere on the site.

Playing craps at Mohegan Sun last week the dealer got into a heated argument with the roller over what-i-don't-know and totally killed the mood of the table. I was playing a $5 (table min) line bet with max 5X odds, as well as place bets inside. Sensing a bad feeling, I took back my odds and place bets. Sure enough next roll (once the yelling stopped) the guy crapped out.

Sure enough? You seem to be assuming that the seven was CAUSED by the "killed mood" of the table. Nonsense.

Quote: redsox

My question is what would be the best bet to make once I took back my other bets to hedge against the loss on my line bet, assuming the next roll was a 7?

If you really believed that the seven was inevitable, you could have just made a Come bet, which wins on seven and is a perfectly good bet in any case.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

You can't Ass u me that the next roll is a seven. Just turn your place bets off.

Quote: goatcabin

Sure enough? You seem to be assuming that the seven was CAUSED by the "killed mood" of the table. Nonsense.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA

Superstition is a funny thing to watch at a Craps table.
In my younger days when I tracked almost everything that happened at a Craps table, I have kept a record (not faithfully) of 3 stats over the years.
I carry a card in my pocket with these numbers just to point out what really happens at a craps table.

#1 stat) how many rolls after a die(or both dice) left the table did the 7 appear when a point was established?
Since on a come out roll it really does not matter...according to superstition.
2,173 total times this happened. It happens a lot at Bill's Casino in Las Vegas at the Rapid Craps table. New players new to craps and to tossing the dice etc.
On the first roll...350 times. the expected number of times. ~362
On the 2nd roll...321 times. the expected number of times. ~302
On the 3rd roll...261 times. the expected number of times. ~252
Looks to me to be right close to that 1 in 6 probability.

#2 stat) when the dice do not roll, for an argument, a buy-in during a hand or a lage fill, anything to stop the dice from rolling for at least 1 minute. Frequency was only 816.
On the first roll...137 times. the expected number of times. 136 (scary)
On the 2nd roll...99 times. the expected number of times. ~113
On the 3rd roll...101 times. the expected number of times. ~94

Again, looks quite close to expectation.

#3 stat) New stick. yes, this is a good one. superstition says a change of stick in the middle of a hand while a point is established is the kiss of death for the shooter. It happened 9 times in a row last week at the El Cortez. What a streak. The players were in a panic. I left for dinner.
I have a good sample on this one. I was even anal and stuck the results in Excel.
Frequency was 18,551.(I played a lot of craps when I was young)
On the first roll...3158 times. the expected number of times. ~3092 More than 1SD from the mean.
On the 2nd roll...2602 times. the expected number of times. ~2577
On the 3rd roll...2161 times. the expected number of times. ~2147

By absolute numbers, I could fear a stick change while a point is established.
By expectation, I fear nothing.

I almost forget. Saying the word "Seven" when a point is established. BIG superstition.
A friend of mine plays the 3way7 almost every roll. But he calls out " 21, 3 way seven" or " 15- 3way seven" always saying the word seven.
It is funny to watch the other players. At first most Do bettors are pissed off at him, but then soon realize he is not winning every time, so they ignore him and his verbal "Seven" calls. It is actually a funny thing to witness.
I try to tell him his small wins do not compare to his large losses but he continues to play on. He tracked over 4,000 actual dice rolls that I placed into WinCraps a few years ago. and would you believe that he won,on average, every 6 rolls. The pass line also won 49.2% of the time.

What would a gambler be without a superstition in his pocket?

Quote: benbakdoff

Tell everyone within earshot that you're going to go across the river. What's across the river you ask? FOXWOODS!!

I did that the following day and had much better luck.

Quote: goatcabin

If you really believed that the seven was inevitable, you could have just made a Come bet, which wins on seven and is a perfectly good bet in any case.

This seems to be the prevailing logic. It also would have worked a while later when I did the same thing (took down my bets) - but it took the roller another 4 rolls to 7 out.

Quote: guido111

What would a gambler be without a superstition in his pocket?

Guido thanks for the insight. I play for fun and tracking and analyzing like you did feels too much like my day job so I'll leave that to others. 1SD on Stat #3 doesn't scare me - but maybe cause I'm not superstitious about stick changes to begin with.

On the topic of superstition - a guy playing next to me once NEVER placed the 6 on a point of 8 and vice-versa. I told him the math doesn't lie and didn't understand, but what works works and let it be.