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How can it happen?

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February 8th, 2011 at 6:17:14 AM permalink
dwheatley
Member since: Nov 16, 2009
Threads: 10
Posts: 550
Quote: mkl654321
I don't know how to formularize it, but in just about every casino game, even one with a huge negative expectation like roulette, there will be, statistically and in practice, SOMEONE who consistently whups the game's butt.


There's a new-ish field called "Extreme Value Theory" which tries to quantify the probability of extreme events taking place, such as huge natural disasters, equity losses, etc. In short, over enough trials, someone or something has to be the most extreme. Like mkl said, the probability of SOMEONE winning a lot of money at roulette in your casino tends to 1.

You can quietly check your wheels, but if I was the casino, I would not sweat the money...
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
February 8th, 2011 at 6:25:33 AM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Nov 9, 2009
Threads: 174
Posts: 2414
If he was cheating roulette in general, not colluding with a dealer or following a biased wheel, then he would move from casino to casino, right?
Even if he had invented a winning betting system, judged by our potentates of gambling to be impossible, he would still go from casino to casino, right?


So the casino should ask him if they can feature him in ads like you see the state lotteries do with people.

THIS PERSON HAS WON THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS EVERY DAY PLAYING ROULETTE AT OUR CASINO!

I swear it's a no brainer!

Meantime make sure he hasnt figured out how to cheat, sure, but they are wasting good publicity on this guy!
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." Mark Twain
February 8th, 2011 at 9:00:57 AM permalink
gambler
Member since: Jan 11, 2010
Threads: 111
Posts: 480
I like odiousgambit's idea of asking him to be in a promotion. Give him some serious comps for his time (after all he should have earned them by now).
February 8th, 2011 at 10:03:46 AM permalink
odiousgambit
Member since: Nov 9, 2009
Threads: 174
Posts: 2414
Quote: dwheatley
the probability of SOMEONE winning a lot of money at roulette in your casino tends to 1.


Oh! the life of the guy living past 3 standard deviations!

On the right side that deviation of course.
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." Mark Twain
February 8th, 2011 at 10:26:42 AM permalink
pokerface
Member since: May 9, 2010
Threads: 2
Posts: 108
Quote: odiousgambit
THIS PERSON HAS WON THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS EVERY DAY PLAYING ROULETTE AT OUR CASINO!

I totally agree!
February 8th, 2011 at 10:53:49 AM permalink
FleaStiff
Member since: Oct 19, 2009
Threads: 75
Posts: 4827
Quote: JIMMYFOCKER
Probably using a 1-1-3-1 system, which provides winning sessions in excess of 85%.
I thought the Over 85% system was to bet the last two numbers that are stamped on your parking ticket?
February 8th, 2011 at 3:52:16 PM permalink
MikeChch
Member since: Nov 8, 2010
Threads: 4
Posts: 11
Quote: odiousgambit
If he was cheating roulette in general, not colluding with a dealer or following a biased wheel, then he would move from casino to casino, right?
Even if he had invented a winning betting system, judged by our potentates of gambling to be impossible, he would still go from casino to casino, right?


So the casino should ask him if they can feature him in ads like you see the state lotteries do with people.

THIS PERSON HAS WON THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS EVERY DAY PLAYING ROULETTE AT OUR CASINO!

I swear it's a no brainer!

Meantime make sure he hasnt figured out how to cheat, sure, but they are wasting good publicity on this guy!


I would LOVE to be able to do this, but due to very strict government regulations regading casino advertising we can't.
May 5th, 2011 at 6:01:43 PM permalink
teeth1
Member since: Feb 23, 2011
Threads: 2
Posts: 79
Quote: MikeChch
There is a player at the casino which I work that consistently wins on roulette, and by consistently I mean around 98% of the times he visits. He is one of the higher end players however prefers to play on the lower limit tables. His betting seems to follow that he will bet on the neighbors of the last winning number, both on straigh-ups and splits. He plays on multiple tables for up to 8 hours and a time. Management have tried all things to curb his wins, from ensuring the wheel speed is at a faster rate, ball speeds are varied, maximum wagers reduced and differing ball sizes. All wheels are scalloped to increase randomness when the ball drops. Nothing seems to work. Seriously, after a 4 day visit he will be winning in excess of $10k approx 95% of the time. He may have a loss one day but will always recuperate the loss in the other days he's here. Statistically there is no way that over a period of 6 years he should be consistently winning like he is.

Is there anything else that anyone can recommend might help?


Is this player now a multi-millionaire or was the whole thing just a wind-up?
A gentleman is someone who can play the bagpipes but doesn't.
May 5th, 2011 at 6:17:37 PM permalink
gofaster87
Member since: Mar 19, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 445
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Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard.
Here are my reasons why and my promise of support.