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Lottery Question
| December 18th, 2010 at 11:59:07 PM permalink | |
| nzscion Member since: Dec 18, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Hi All, A quick questions relating to Lotteries in General: If I play with a ticket with completely random numbers selected, and do not win, am I statistically more likely to win in the next draw of the same lottery if I use the same numbers from the first draw again, or if I use a new set of completely random numbers? Thanks, NZScion |
| December 19th, 2010 at 1:28:57 AM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4827 | WHY should there be any difference? Most such lotteries are determined by air blowers popping up numbered ping pong balls. Are you under the impression that such numbered ping pong balls will be aware of the fact they represent your "old" numbers and do not represent any new and younger numbers that you've chosen more recently? Will the balls feel depressed that you've selected them too long ago and be less enthusiastic about allowing you to win? |
| December 19th, 2010 at 4:03:06 AM permalink | |
| Martin Member since: Nov 20, 2010 Threads: 8 Posts: 149 |
Hey Flea - give a guy a break - The answer is no - just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean that it is going to happen. |
| December 20th, 2010 at 11:22:56 AM permalink | |
| nzscion Member since: Dec 18, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Hi Martin, Many thanks for the sensible reply. Confirming what I thought, and wanted to check by asking a reasonable question. :) Thanks again, NZScion |
| December 20th, 2010 at 12:19:18 PM permalink | |
| ElectricDreams Member since: Sep 8, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 194 | In a similar vein, it doesn't make a difference whether you pick the same numbers each drawing, or use different ones for each drawing either. The guy who's been using lucky 'ol 5-8-19-40-2-7 for the past five years and the guy who has the computer pick the numbers have the same odds. So essentially, there's no strategy to picking lottery numbers. That, and it's just friggin' boring. |
| December 20th, 2010 at 12:44:02 PM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 46 Posts: 2521 |
That's somewhat true. There's nothing you can do to change your odds of winning -- each number combination is equally likely -- but in a pari-mutuel game there are ways to maximize your return if you do win. For example, start by picking numbers greater than or equal to 32. Since many people play birthdays or other date-related numbers, and all of those numbers are 31 or lower, if you win with those numbers you're more likely to split the pot with someone else. Conversely, if you pick all numbers 32 or greater, if you hit the jackpot you're more likely to win all of it. "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| December 20th, 2010 at 1:04:16 PM permalink | |
| mrjjj Member since: Sep 4, 2010 Threads: 62 Posts: 1304 | This could seriously be a LONG thread. Ken If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong.
Playing at the casino doesn't make you a pro any more than standing in a garage makes you a car. I prefer to be hated for telling the truth, than loved for telling a lie. No person has yet convinced me that their way of playing roulette is better than my way. Winners have simply formed the habit of doing things roulette AP players don't like to do. I'm sure AP (roulette) worked just fine back in 1923. Gambler's Fallacy is a term coined by unsuccessful gamblers to validate their reasons for losing. 5.26%, so what?......I get taxed everyday. Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it. Don't play/study roulette for a TOTAL of 9 hours in your lifetime and then preach that a person can not do 'well' with it.
Also, don't let the '2+2 will never equal 5' crowd bring you down. TRIAL & ERROR guys, I can't say it enough! When you're finished changing, you're finished. |
| December 20th, 2010 at 3:11:48 PM permalink | |
| dm Member since: Apr 29, 2010 Threads: 14 Posts: 699 |
Excellent point. Nice to see something meaningful occasionally. It might be that picking the last numbers would be the most infrequent. |
| December 20th, 2010 at 4:10:18 PM permalink | |
| focd Member since: Sep 15, 2010 Threads: 19 Posts: 128 | Seriously, have you or anyone you know pick the numbers 1-2-3-4-5-6? I mean the odds of winning are the same thing, but would you or anyone you know do that? |
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