reuben71
reuben71
Joined: Jan 17, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
January 17th, 2017 at 2:56:42 AM permalink
Using KO full indices for SD or DD several months now. Learned HiLo 20yrs ago but rarely played. Several questions:

1. on positive counts, I change to two hands, example 2x and 2x instead of one hand of 4x on +4 count . Count drops, back to one hand. Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. This may also be not getting to DD/split one of the two hands, just decreases my variance. Thoughts?

2. is there any count making the 20 side bet worth it: 4 to 1 for any two card 20, higher pay out for specific 20s like QHQH pays 1000 to 1 etc. Someone said at +5, but I think its much higher since getting a 20 is about 10%.

3. Hand shuffling seems to increase variance and mitigates counting, wide swings of all big then all small etc. When auto shuffled after a cut card, I win more with worse rules. Thoughts?

4. Seen harsh criticism of KO despite qfit's very high marks. Overrated? I find it ok with a 1-5 spread, SD or DD. When Id bet 5-10 units at counts of 8-10 on SD or DD I was punished and did not like the variance. I play with $100 on $5 tables only. Im willing to lose $500 over several hours in a nite only, hwich occurs less than monthly. Or it becomes 'real gambling'.

5. Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500. I think this is because I fundamentally think gambling is frivolous. IVe never placed any other wager. I avg $100-200/wk playing maybe 3-5 hours. This is less than 1/10 my actual income. I mostly play to socialize in a new city, recuperating from injury/illness. [Problem is its only gamblers in the casino haha.] Anyway, this seems like 'beating the odds'. Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'. I never count winnings, only the hole. Is this good, avg, boring results or what?

6. I dont mask that Im counting. I spread 1-5 and wong out casually. I do get angry when losing, so it makes it look like I lose a lot, but this is not 'intentional'. I just dont think they care since its $5 tables. This is another reason I wont move up to $25. Has anyone else seen this?

7. How do you add an ace side count to KO black jack?

8. Are there more indices than the 'full' table in book?

9. At high counts, why isnt even money on A10 v A a good bet- or did wizard mean for non counters? If insurance at 3+ is the best yield in KO, then seems like even money for BJ at +3 is just as good.

10. Any good data for splitting 10s vs 4, 5 or 6? DD on A8 or A9 vs 5 or 6? Doubling vs splitting 4s vs 5 or 6? I consider at +4 or so like many guys, but want data.

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

Thats a year of questions in one thread! Thanks for any input.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 1692
January 17th, 2017 at 4:44:01 AM permalink
Quote: reuben71

1.Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. Thoughts?

Unless someone at the table is card tracking, or the hand shuffling is really rubbish, I cannot see how it would make any effective difference.
Quote: reuben71


2. is there any count making the 20 side bet worth it:

Dunno.
Quote: reuben71

3. Hand shuffling seems to increase variance and mitigates counting, wide swings of all big then all small etc. When auto shuffled after a cut card, I win more with worse rules. Thoughts?


Back to point 1. I think you are seeing a pattern that is not there: Nothing more than normal variance.
Quote: reuben71

4. Seen harsh criticism of KO despite qfit's very high marks. Overrated?

It's a simple count. You get what you pay for. Personally, I reckon Hi-lo is worth the extra effort, in as much as counting can ever be worth the effort. If you are finding good sd or dd games, you might as well exploit them to the max. But variance and ROR go with the territory. How would you handle being 10K down over a bad few consecutive sessions?
Quote: reuben71

5. Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500.

That sounds bad, and like a very bad sign of something.
Quote: reuben71

Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'.

Finding yourself ever having to play catch-up is a bad symptom. You either have a winning game or you don't. If Wonging is how you catch-up lost money, ask yourself why didn't you win with wonging in the first place?
It's a bit like me saying that when I'm £200 down, I strive to make it up with a few aggressive £25 or £50 hands. Often it works, but I'm not kidding myself.
Quote: reuben71

I do get angry when losing, so it makes it look like I lose a lot, but this is not 'intentional'.

If you are genuinely getting angry when you lose, but don't get excited when you win, then you are heading to a dark place. Take care. Either care equally or don't care at all. ( I'm in the latter camp )
Quote: reuben71

7. How do you add an ace side count to KO black jack?

Why make life hard. just use Hi-Low or some better count.
Quote: reuben71

9. At high counts, why isn't even money on A10 v A a good bet- or did wizard mean for non counters?

Even money is a good bet when more than 1/3 of remaining cards are 10 value. That roughly coincides with 3+ . . . but it's not exact unless you are specifically side counting 10s.
Quote: reuben71

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

You could say, 'Be right with you, I just need to win a little more' :o)
Embrace the Variance
sabre
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 517
January 17th, 2017 at 7:57:16 AM permalink
Quote: reuben71


1. on positive counts, I change to two hands, example 2x and 2x instead of one hand of 4x on +4 count . Count drops, back to one hand. Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. This may also be not getting to DD/split one of the two hands, just decreases my variance. Thoughts?



This is a serious error in thinking. I would stop trying to make money playing blackjack until you can understand why.

There are good reasons to sometimes not spread to two hands or go from two back to one, but they have to do with drawing attention to oneself and occasionally trying to squeeze an extra round out of a good count.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 3816
January 17th, 2017 at 8:09:25 AM permalink
Hi reuben, and welcome to the forums!

(These will also appear later in my responses, but I wanted you to have a quick link to them here... Read on before checking these out)
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: reuben71

Using KO full indices for SD or DD several months now. Learned HiLo 20yrs ago but rarely played. Several questions:

1. on positive counts, I change to two hands, example 2x and 2x instead of one hand of 4x on +4 count . Count drops, back to one hand. Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. This may also be not getting to DD/split one of the two hands, just decreases my variance. Thoughts?

This is 100% ploppy nonsense. If you know the order of the cards then you should be a millionaire, but the simple matter is they are shuffled to be random and no one knows what order they're coming out in. Taking an extra hand/hit or staying when you shouldn't is just as likely to help the rest of the table as hurt it. In the long run, it literally doesn't have any effect on the game (whether you do this or another person at the table does something). Other player shave ZERO effect on you, in the long run.... other than slowing down your hands per hour perhaps =).

Quote: reuben71

2. is there any count making the 20 side bet worth it: 4 to 1 for any two card 20, higher pay out for specific 20s like QHQH pays 1000 to 1 etc. Someone said at +5, but I think its much higher since getting a 20 is about 10%.

Hi/Low has an index for the Lucky Ladies side bet of TC +6.5. If you use the Tens count this will more accurately reflect the proper time to bet it. There's plenty of research on beating the Lucky Lady side bet, simply google and you'll get all the info you'll need.

Quote: reuben71

3. Hand shuffling seems to increase variance and mitigates counting, wide swings of all big then all small etc. When auto shuffled after a cut card, I win more with worse rules. Thoughts?

100% erroneous. So long as they have a "fair" shuffle it doesn't matter and the cards are random (which I've seen 1 casino in my time that had a weak shuffle... which was good because it was something I attacked). Humans have a thing called confirmation bias. We want to believe what our gut tells us regardless of the truth/fact/math. This is why there are some idiots in the world that STILL think vaccines cause autism, even though there's an overwhelming amount of data and the scientific community that reject (and laugh at) this notion. You remember winning with shufflers because you want to believe there's a bias to them, but there is not. So long as the casino has a fair shuffle the cards are considered randomized.

Quote: reuben71

4. Seen harsh criticism of KO despite qfit's very high marks. Overrated? I find it ok with a 1-5 spread, SD or DD. When Id bet 5-10 units at counts of 8-10 on SD or DD I was punished and did not like the variance. I play with $100 on $5 tables only. Im willing to lose $500 over several hours in a nite only, hwich occurs less than monthly. Or it becomes 'real gambling'.

KO is not a bad count... It can perform as well as Hi/Low but that's assuming you're proficient at it. $5-$25 spread is a bit weak, but I guess for SD you've gotta keep the spread down to avoid detection. However, I don't think I've seen a $5 single deck game that wasn't 6/5 in a long time... What other rules do you play on your SD/DD games? If you play 6/5 you shouldn't be upping your bet until a much higher TC, which in turn means you need to basically have 2 bets ($5 and $25). This is going to drive a bit more variance as well. Really, we'd need to know the other rules, but to answer your base question here KO will perform just fine if that's the count you like and make the least amount of mistakes with.

Quote: reuben71

5. Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500. I think this is because I fundamentally think gambling is frivolous. IVe never placed any other wager. I avg $100-200/wk playing maybe 3-5 hours. This is less than 1/10 my actual income. I mostly play to socialize in a new city, recuperating from injury/illness. [Problem is its only gamblers in the casino haha.] Anyway, this seems like 'beating the odds'. Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'. I never count winnings, only the hole. Is this good, avg, boring results or what?

Your average bet and spread are not very high, so you're not going to win tons of money. In fact, from what you've posted I'd say your results are above EV. In fact, I'm showing for a not so great DD rule set a spread of $5-$25 where you MAX BET at TC +3 and wong out at TC -2 to have an expected EV of about $2/hour. So if you're making any mistakes then you're barely above break even... So if you're making $20/hour ($100/5) consider yourself quite lucky and on the good side of variance. I would strongly urge you to re-evaluate your game and re-run your numbers before you head back closer to your EV and think it's just bad luck when in reality it's a weak spread and/or mistakes and not variance at all. I'm glad you've had success thus far, but this is one reason I always urge others to constantly be re-evaluating their game.

Quote: reuben71

6. I dont mask that Im counting. I spread 1-5 and wong out casually. I do get angry when losing, so it makes it look like I lose a lot, but this is not 'intentional'. I just dont think they care since its $5 tables. This is another reason I wont move up to $25. Has anyone else seen this?

Yes. This is actually a sign of casino intelligence to ignore counters at the $5 table as you have basically zero effect on their bottom line and that's IF you have a winning game, which as shown above you 'might' or 'might not.' Even if someone can count correctly and play correctly if they have no concept of bankroll management and RoR they will also go broke to the casino. So from that standpoint if I ran a casino I would ignore $5 counters as well.

When I started out on the $5 tables I used to spread from $5 up to 2x$80 and never so much as got any heat. Of course I spread that after testing out whether I would get heat with different max bets and decided on 2x$80 because of my bankroll/RoR considerations but also the fact that I got zero heat.

Quote: reuben71

7. How do you add an ace side count to KO black jack?

I don't deal with ace side counts regularly, but my memory is good enough that I can keep track of the number of aces left in a SD or DD game while I play with no problem. Basically when the deck is ace-heavy clearly you have an advantage as if you happen to "know" your first card was an Ace you'd have a 51% advantage off the top. I can't add much value to this question since I don't use an ace side count very often.

Quote: reuben71

8. Are there more indices than the 'full' table in book?

There are infinite amounts of indices, but the further out you get (on either side + or -) the less often you'll actually see/use these deviations. Think about it... When's the last time you saw a TC of +25. Well, there certainly are index plays for that but they're worthless to memorize because you'll never see this or you'll see it once in your life. Instead concentrate on the TC -8 to TC +8 range, if you want to add more indexes than the I18 to your game.

Quote: reuben71

9. At high counts, why isnt even money on A10 v A a good bet- or did wizard mean for non counters? If insurance at 3+ is the best yield in KO, then seems like even money for BJ at +3 is just as good.

You are supposed to take even money when the Insurance index is hit. For DD that's actually 2.4... So if you have A-10 v A and the TC is >= +2.4, you should take even money. Even money is just a "short cut" for taking insurance. Play it out a few times and you'll see this.

If you didn't know this, then I'm sorry to inform you that you more than likely DO NOT have a winning game. This is part of the "basics" of card counting. I would strongly urge you to read my 3 articles posted here on the WoV articles section. Irregardless of what count you use, the concepts in the articles are all the same across the card counting board:

http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: reuben71

10. Any good data for splitting 10s vs 4, 5 or 6? DD on A8 or A9 vs 5 or 6? Doubling vs splitting 4s vs 5 or 6? I consider at +4 or so like many guys, but want data.

These are regular deviation plays... At least for 6D... 10-10 splits to 6, 5, 4 at TC +4, +5, and +6 respectively. These are part of the I18:



Quote: reuben71

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

Depends on a few things... Is she a hooker? Then it's pretty -EV to leave the table... Is she not a hooker and just wants to have fun? Well, then how hot is she? Are you single? These playing conditions all need to come in to account. If your EV for that shoe is $50, but you're single and she's not a hooker and she's super hot, then the hell with that $50, in my opinion =).

If you really need another excuse just go "Oh hunny you're sweet but I'm gay."
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
reuben71
reuben71
Joined: Jan 17, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
January 17th, 2017 at 2:14:10 PM permalink
Thanks for reply! Yes the shuffling is garbage. Isnt this intentional though to increase variance and ROR, or theyd buy shufflers. This is also my point on going 1 hand to 2 hands etc. For fun Ill sometimes track and call out an exact card out loud with atrocious shuffling. Twice yesterday I called 'blackjack' then turned it over, correct 2 of 3. I have a biostats masters but some math doesnt play out as we intend at the tables, ex dealer clumping naturals, bad shuffling, proposition hot waitress and forget the count etc.

I used HILO 20yrs ago. Just find less data on KO and dont want to relearn HILO tables.
reuben71
reuben71
Joined: Jan 17, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
January 17th, 2017 at 2:17:39 PM permalink
Thanks for reply. I understand the math, the issues with poor shuffling, dealer patterns are not accounted in the math.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 3816
January 17th, 2017 at 2:36:16 PM permalink
Quote: reuben71

Thanks for reply! Yes the shuffling is garbage. Isnt this intentional though to increase variance and ROR, or theyd buy shufflers. This is also my point on going 1 hand to 2 hands etc. For fun Ill sometimes track and call out an exact card out loud with atrocious shuffling. Twice yesterday I called 'blackjack' then turned it over, correct 2 of 3. I have a biostats masters but some math doesnt play out as we intend at the tables, ex dealer clumping naturals, bad shuffling, proposition hot waitress and forget the count etc.

I used HILO 20yrs ago. Just find less data on KO and dont want to relearn HILO tables.

Oh no no no... If they had a weak shuffle it would be very easy to predict when clumps of big or little cards would be coming. Then you could just bet massive when the clump of big cards is coming. This is called Shuffle Tracking and has been around for a very long time. The casinos want the cards as RANDOM as possible so that players couldn't figure out when clumps of cards were coming. Otherwise the casinos would get KILLED and they'd have no way of figuring it out really given the players would not be moving their money with the count.

Also, even if they shuffled poor on purpose, how on earth would that help the dealer? The player could get the cards or the dealer could get the cards... So just by putting big cards near each other and little cards near each other that still wouldn't help/hurt the player/dealer at all. The only way it could hurt the players, which would be illegal, is if they clumped the big cards to the bottom of the shoe and cut them out to always be dealing small cards... Again, this is why they offer cuts to the players and also why it's illegal to do this.

Going 1 hand to 2 hands actually decreases your variance, but introduces CoVariance.

Hi/Low is used by my approximation about 85% of counters (at least from my experiences). Thus, you're going to be able to much easier find information and answers to your question if you use Hi/Low as opposed to KO, but again to each their own so long as you have a real system (which KO is) and make fewer mistakes with it. I would think that it would be WAY easier to "relearn" Hi/Low than to try to learn a new count at this point though. And if you learned Hi/Low properly the first time you really should never "forget" it entirely. Just a brush up on deviations and a very small amount of practice and I'd think you'd be good to go.

Reuben, I don't want to sound rude, but I'm trying to be helpful... It sounds like you do not have a full understanding of the game. It sounds like you know how to do the +1's and -1's and look at some deviations in the past, but things like a weak shuffle are VERY OBVIOUS to counters. Why on EARTH would you show the casino that you know what cards are coming by calling out the cards? Instead, why the hell wouldn't you simply bet TABLE MAX when you "know" a blackjack is coming? p.s. even with poor shuffles you still can't predict EXACT cards, so either you're embellishing or you have the dealer showing you the cards and not shuffling them basically. I would strongly urge you to read my 3 articles to get a bit of a better understanding and have a more complete winning game. I would also suggest you read up on shuffle tracking if the shuffle is indeed that weak and exploitable.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 3816
January 17th, 2017 at 2:38:19 PM permalink
Quote: reuben71

Thanks for reply. I understand the math, the issues with poor shuffling, dealer patterns are not accounted in the math.

Apologies, but I think it would be a good learning example for others (and yourself) if you could please answer the following questions:

1) What is the full rule set and House Edge for the game you typically play.
2) What is your exact bet spread for this game.
3) How many hands per hour do you usually get at this game?
4) What is your EV/hour at this game?

If you can't answer these questions then my friend you are not playing with a winning game. I'm not here to bash, but help, so give these a shot and let's discuss.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 875
January 17th, 2017 at 5:40:01 PM permalink
You spread $5 to $25 for three to five hours and average $100 to $200 per week? You should be the one answering questions

Quote: reuben71

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"



Playing single or double deck, you should know the +8 isn't going to last long. Not knowing how to talk to females definitely explains a lot.
reuben71
reuben71
Joined: Jan 17, 2017
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 7
January 17th, 2017 at 5:56:56 PM permalink
TomG, an amateur like yourself commenting is laughable. Having lived on the strip for months, zero BJ, just pulled women from the clubs 5 niites a week, Im pretty sure Id look like a superhero or god to you. Obviously no one else out there gets propositioned much at the tables. Have fun in Peoria or whatever godforsaken hole you live in.

  • Jump to: