GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
Joined: Oct 22, 2015
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January 7th, 2017 at 11:10:35 AM permalink
I know this is an older thread, but the main question does not seem to have been answered. The Help screens at VP.com ALL have different values than on the Wizís page (JB 50 vs 50.5, DW 58 vs 59, DD Bonus 30 vs 31, etc.) I was under the impression that the numbers used by the Wiz were supplied by Action Gaming. Wrong? Or were the Wizís values just hypothetical?
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 8th, 2017 at 7:29:09 AM permalink
Sorry for the late arrival. I was given the following numbers by IGT when I first wrote about the game:


GAME DESCRIPTION 5-coin Payback 10-coin Payback DreamCard Frequency
JACKS OR BETTER - 9/6 99.54% 99.56% 50.50%
JACKS OR BETTER - 8/6 98.39% 98.40% 50.50%
JACKS OR BETTER - 8/5 97.70% 97.73% 50.50%
JACKS OR BETTER - 7/5 96.15% 96.57% 50.50%
BONUS POKER - 8/5 99.17% 99.27% 46.70%
BONUS POKER - 7/5 98.02% 98.15% 46.70%
BONUS POKER - 6/5 96.87% 97.04% 46.70%
DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/7/5 99.11% 99.17% 33.70%
DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6/5 97.81% 98.44% 33.70%
DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6/4 96.38% 97.25% 33.70%
DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/5 95.27% 96.61% 33.70%
DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6/4 98.98% 99.04% 31.00%
DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/5 97.87% 98.41% 31.00%
DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 8/5 96.79% 97.52% 31.00%
DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 7/5 95.71% 96.66% 31.00%
DEUCES WILD - 25/15/9/4/4/3 98.91% 99.91% 59.00%
DEUCES WILD - 20/12/10/4/4/3 97.58% 98.10% 59.00%
DEUCES WILD - 20/11/9/4/4/3 96.75% 97.04% 59.00%
DEUCES WILD - 20/10/8/4/4/3 95.96% 96.02% 59.00%
BONUS POKER DELUXE - 9/6 99.64% 99.67% 31.30%
BONUS POKER DELUXE - 9/5 98.49% 99.05% 31.30%
BONUS POKER DELUXE - 8/5 97.40% 98.11% 31.30%
BONUS POKER DELUXE - 7/5 96.25% 97.17% 31.30%
TRIPLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 9/6 98.15% 98.21% 26.70%
TRIPLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 8/6 97.11% 97.44% 26.70%
TRIPLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER - 7/5 94.92% 96.01% 26.70%
TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 10/7 98.52% 98.54% 27.00%
TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 9/7 97.45% 97.71% 27.00%
TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 9/6 95.88% 96.85% 27.00%
TRIPLE BONUS POKER - 9/5 94.53% 96.08% 27.00%


I've found that IGT is almost never in error in their math. However, sometimes they give me outdated rules.

My next trip to a casino I'll look for Dream Card and check the probabilities myself. However, if anyone can post screenshots, by all means, do.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 8th, 2017 at 2:17:33 PM permalink
In defense of my own Dream Card probabilities, if we assumed the VideoPoker.com probability of 50% for Jacks or Better were true, then the return for that game would be 99.07% with the feature enabled. It would be very unlike IGT to give the player a lower return if he bets more.

I'm planning to go downtown this evening and will look for the game to confirm what the probabilities are, especially in deuces wild.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
January 9th, 2017 at 3:45:14 PM permalink
After checking several casinos I finally found Dream Card at the Red Rock. Here were the stated Dream Card probabilities;

Bonus Poker: 46%
Deuces wild: 58%
Double bonus: 33%
Double Double bonus: 30%
Jacks or Better: 50%
Triple Double Bonus: 26%

I think some of these probabilities are rounded down, lest the return with 10 coins bet per line be less than 5 lines.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 9th, 2017 at 4:40:06 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

After checking several casinos I finally found Dream Card at the Red Rock. Here were the stated Dream Card probabilities;

Bonus Poker: 46%
Deuces wild: 58%
Double bonus: 33%
Double Double bonus: 30%
Jacks or Better: 50%
Triple Double Bonus: 26%

I think some of these probabilities are rounded down, lest the return with 10 coins bet per line be less than 5 lines.



Yeah they can't round up, otherwise they open themselves up to complaints. But why not give the exact percentage to the nearest tenth? Were the people writing the help screen that lazy? But what's also concerning is your site claims Double Double Bonus is 31.0%, but the help screen claims 30%. A 30% hit rate would make 9/6 DDB Dream Card pay less than standard 9/6 DDB. And like you say, that's traditionally been a no-no with "gimmick games".
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 12th, 2017 at 5:18:13 PM permalink
I asked IGT for a clarification on the Dream Card probabilities and still haven't heard back. Thanks to some help from Gary Koehler, I analyzed every game and pay table assuming the probabilities stated on the machines are right. Then, I updated my Dream Card page to show the return both ways.

As the truth finder of all things gambling, I hate to leave it up to the player which to believe, but at this point I have to do that given two credible and differing sources on the Dream Card probabilities.

I'll update you if I get any further information.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 23rd, 2017 at 4:08:42 PM permalink
I'd like to announce that JB has modified the video poker analyzer to make the Dream Card probability configurable. It defaults to the probabilities I was given by IGT.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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