Probability schedule of outcomes of one hand of blackjack

In the recent blackjack episode of This American Life, the host said: "Unlike most casino games, if you play blackjack correctly, the casino barely has an edge: the odds are very close to 50/50, you win almost half the time."

The last part of this statement is wrong. Obviously if you include pushes, the number of hands you win is far less than half. Even if you disregard pushes, the number of hands on which you lose money is a lot of greater than the number on which you win money, although because of doubling down and the 3:2 blackjack payout, the average win (when you win) is greater than the average loss (when you lose).

My question is, for typical rules, and assuming let's say a $10 bet and basic strategy play, what is the list of probabilities of the different possible outcomes, such as "win $50", "win $15", "push", "lose $10", and so forth.

Quote: TheEndOfLove

My question is, for typical rules, and assuming let's say a $10 bet and basic strategy play, what is the list of probabilities of the different possible outcomes, such as "win $50", "win $15", "push", "lose $10", and so forth.

This should help
Net Win in Blackjack

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/8/#streak

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Between the 3 wins of a natural BJ, Double Down and Split, not counting wins not from these type of hands
(rounded from a simulation)

~47% is from a natural 3:2 BJ (this is why 6:5 BJ is bad)
~40% from Double Downs
~13% from Splits

The natural BJs take care of themselves

many do not properly Double Down.
And a large part of a player's wins comes from proper double down hands.

Less of the wins come from Split hands but that percentage is still very high
and most players do not split hands properly also.

Thank you, Guido411, that is what I was looking for.

You are confused, Ibeatyouraces. The statement that you don't think is true, in fact is true. Have a look at the table "Summarized Net Win in Blackjack" in appendix 4, which Guido411 linked to.

For the typical set of 6-deck rules analysed there, assuming $10 flat betting, the average win (when you win) is $12.11 while the average loss (when you lose) is $10.52. But that does not mean you have an edge, because you lose more often than you win.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I don't think this statement is true otherwise a perfect basic strategy player would have the edge off the top. And only if you can find a single deck game with very favorable rules, or a good game with early surrender, no BS player has an off the top edge.

It is actually a true statement. Average win is obviously greater than average loss. The reason that doesn't give you an edge is that you lose more often than you win.

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