Sub-Two Hour Marathon?

Quote: boymimbo

2:20 was broken in 1953.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.

Expanding on this idea:

2:10 was broken in 1967
2:09 was broken in 1969
2:08 was broken in 1985
2:07 was broken in 1988
2:06 was broken in 1999
2:05 was broken in 2003
2:04 was broken in 2008

The last five increments have averaged about 8 years to be broken, but the last two have only averaged 4.5 years each. I think that we'll see something closer to that lower average, so I'm guessing 12-15 years is the right range. My question is, will it be done by a Kenyan or an Eithiopian?

Quote: Nareed

You mean you don't suspect them now?

I haven't yet seen a marathon runner with a physique like the one Ben Johnson had. When he was doping, he didn't look a bit (general physique) like Carl Lewis or any other sprinter. I suspect (don't know, of course), that a distance runner heavily using such enhancements would show changes other than performance.

If you believe that there is a non-zero boundary on the minimum time required to run a marathon, I think you should expect the long-term trend in improvement to become more and more gradual, perhaps like an exponential asymptote to the minimum. In the short term, I expect improvement to be erratic, with significant jumps, perhaps several of them, followed by periods in which the new record is not frequently challenged. I have no idea when to expect one of these jumps to cross the 2-hr "barrier".

Quote: Wizard

If and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.

Possibly even new biological enhancements. .I don't discount the idea of someone trying to try out medical enhancements that may be possible one day Once you think like an old communist east Germans, anything is possible.

Quote: Wizard

If and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.

I wouldn't suspect steroids, I would suspect the same sort of thing that long distance cycling has been with the oxygen fixing stuff.

Quote: Doc

If you believe that there is a non-zero boundary on the minimum time required to run a marathon, I think you should expect the long-term trend in improvement to become more and more gradual, perhaps like an exponential asymptote to the minimum.

About 20 years ago, the asymptote of the human body for the marathon was estimated to be 2 hours minus 2 minutes. So you are getting pretty close to theoretical limits. The guess is that if it does happen it will be in London.

Of course, how do you explain Bob Beamon?

Quote: Nareed

Does the third choice include the first two?

You couldn't answer that for yourself? How could it not?

Quote: Nareed

You mean you don't suspect them now?

2nd that

It certainly could happen on an ideal course. Say perfectly straight, perfectly level, 1/2 northward, 1/2 southward, a wind shift from strong south to strong north after a front that favored the runners perfectly both ways. I went with the more than 4. I will add that if financial rewards for doing it were high enough, it might happen pretty quickly. Some of the elite runners make good money re the track meet circuits that could not include a marathon.

Quote: pacomartin

Of course, how do you explain Bob Beamon?

Quote: Doc

I expect improvement to be erratic, with significant jumps....

and Beamon's super jump was an extraordinary example of that.

Quote: pacomartin

Of course, how do you explain Bob Beamon?

Thin air? Wasn't that jump at the 68 Olympics in Mexico City? For a short sprint the muscles can operate anaerobically, so the lower oxygen pressure isn't an issue. But the lower air resistance might have helped.