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Sub-Two Hour Marathon?

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Poll
1 vote (5%)
2 votes (10%)
2 votes (10%)
15 votes (75%)
No votes (0%)

20 members have voted

November 9th, 2011 at 10:22:59 AM permalink
Ayecarumba
Member since: Nov 17, 2009
Threads: 113
Posts: 2047
In this year's New York Marathon, Geoffrey Mutai of Kenya won it in 2:05:05. He is also the record holder of the fastest marathon time in history, finishing the 26.2 miles, at Boston this year in 2:03:02.

A sub two hour marathon seems tantilizingly close. When do you think this time will be broken?
November 9th, 2011 at 10:24:15 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Nov 11, 2009
Threads: 218
Posts: 7281
Does the third choice include the first two?
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November 9th, 2011 at 10:27:29 AM permalink
Ayecarumba
Member since: Nov 17, 2009
Threads: 113
Posts: 2047
Quote: Nareed
Does the third choice include the first two?


Yes.
November 9th, 2011 at 10:31:24 AM permalink
dtyst1
Member since: Jun 25, 2011
Threads: 3
Posts: 11
If you throw out any marathon time that is on a net downhill courses (times on those courses are not eligible for any records beyond course records) then you will not see a sub 2 hour marathon anytime in the next four years, maybe not even in the next 25 or 30 years. I believe it could happen at some point, but not by anyone alive today on a course where a time wold go in the record books.

P.S. I will be in Vegas next month for the half marathon, my second trip ever to the city.

Dan Y.
November 9th, 2011 at 10:33:20 AM permalink
boymimbo
Member since: Nov 12, 2009
Threads: 12
Posts: 2533
2:20 was broken in 1953.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.

I give it 7 years for 2:00 to be broken. It will be an incredible run to be sure.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
November 9th, 2011 at 10:57:24 AM permalink
Ayecarumba
Member since: Nov 17, 2009
Threads: 113
Posts: 2047
What really amazes me is how fit the elite runners are. At the end of the race, I am expecting them to collapse and be carried to the medical tent, but they're not even out of breath. They seem so casual, like they could nibble on a Powerbar, and just keep running all the way back to their hotel.
November 9th, 2011 at 11:24:08 AM permalink
DJTeddyBear
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 105
Posts: 5727
Quote: boymimbo
2:20 was broken in 1953.
2:15 was broken in 1963.
2:10 was broken in 1967.
2:05 was broken in 2003.
While it took "only" 14 years to shave off 10 minutes, it took another 36 years to shave an additional 5.

And the current record didn't even get halfway there.

I don't see it happening anytime soon at all.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood?
November 9th, 2011 at 1:00:55 PM permalink
boymimbo
Member since: Nov 12, 2009
Threads: 12
Posts: 2533
There's probably some technology at play here with running shoes. I imagine some courses are easier than others and that weather plays a massive effect. But I'm not an expert, at all. I did run 10k about 10 years back.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
November 9th, 2011 at 3:53:53 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 313
Posts: 6783
If and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
November 9th, 2011 at 5:43:58 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Nov 11, 2009
Threads: 218
Posts: 7281
Quote: Wizard
If and when somebody breaks the 2:00 mark I will suspect steroids, no matter how emphatic the denials.


You mean you don't suspect them now?
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