Blackjack fluctuations and downswings

Having counted cards for 30 years, I have experienced many blackjack "swings" of the game. Recently, I have been playing the eight deck ASM tables in Atlantic City. I only backcount (Wong) and enter at a runnung +5 or better, adjusting my bets accordingly. During the past three weeks I have experienced a downswing of 26 bets, sometimes losing 4-5 hands in a row after entering a rich shoe. I play perfect basic strategy and perform the necessary deviations. Not only is this a pain in my wallet, but it's also hard on the psyche. I know that if I plug on I should overcome this negative deviation.
Questions: a) Could the Automatic Shuffle Machines be affecting my results?
b) How many losses in a downswing would indicate that perhaps a player is using a losing system, even if counting?
c) What are some of the longest downswings recorded by the top players?

I've always been told to just keep putting the chips on the table and eventually the built in "advantage" will result in the long run. But when things like this happen, it's only natural for doubts to set in. I need some re-assurance or advice on how to maintain my confidence and playing ability. (How many losses is too many? 40? 50? 80? 200?). I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

Quote: Blackjackbob

I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

I wonder if thats true. In poker, because of the variance, the
math says its possible for a player never to have a winning year
in his whole career. Doyle Brunson almost retired a few years
ago because he hadn't had a winning session in over 4 months.
I've heard of pro BJ players quitting because because the negative
variance wiped out their BR. I think the standard is you need at
least a 100K BR to withstand the ups and downs, and that 100K is
outside your living expenses.

EvenBob, thanks for replying to my question about blackjack fluctuations and negative swings. I'm going to keep persevering and hope for a profit no matter how long it takes or until I'm $10,000 in the hole. Then? I'm a retired teacher who has always played for fun and small gains, but this negative swing has me in the doldrums. It's funny....when you're on winning streaks you're ready to write books on the subject, but when you lose all the doubts creep in. Is it OK to leave my E mail address, or is it not permitted at this site? I only signed up yesterday and really don't know much, like threads? Also, if you can relay my post to other blackjack players (if they would like to reply to my concerns) I would appreciate it. Thanks, Blackjackbob

Quote: Blackjackbob

It's funny....when you're on winning streaks you're ready to write books on the subject, but when you lose all the doubts creep in.

Its the primary reason most BJ pro's play on
teams. They pool their money for a giant BR,
which allows them to bet higher amounts. But
mostly the team concept defeats the single
player variance. If you have 6 on the team,
3 might do poorly, and chances are the other
3 will do well enough for the team to make a
profit that day.

Quote: Blackjackbob

Having counted cards for 30 years, I have experienced many blackjack "swings" of the game. Recently, I have been playing the eight deck ASM tables in Atlantic City. I only backcount (Wong) and enter at a runnung +5 or better, adjusting my bets accordingly. During the past three weeks I have experienced a downswing of 26 bets, sometimes losing 4-5 hands in a row after entering a rich shoe. I play perfect basic strategy and perform the necessary deviations. Not only is this a pain in my wallet, but it's also hard on the psyche. I know that if I plug on I should overcome this negative deviation.
Questions: a) Could the Automatic Shuffle Machines be affecting my results?
b) How many losses in a downswing would indicate that perhaps a player is using a losing system, even if counting?
c) What are some of the longest downswings recorded by the top players?

I've always been told to just keep putting the chips on the table and eventually the built in "advantage" will result in the long run. But when things like this happen, it's only natural for doubts to set in. I need some re-assurance or advice on how to maintain my confidence and playing ability. (How many losses is too many? 40? 50? 80? 200?). I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

The ASM shuffles the cards which are then dealt by the dealer exactly like a hand shuffled game. I believe they do affect my results which is why I play them when I can. The more hands per hour the better.

How have you done over the last 30 years? That should tell you a lot. Losses, down swings, losing streaks are part of the game. I've had them last a few months and I've lost over 100 units in one shoe many times. Rather than focusing on losses take stock of your game and correct any weaknesses. Once you've done that, keep in mind that most Atlantic City blackjack is mediocre at best and continues to deteriorate but it is still beatable. After you have reviewed your game and are confident that it's up to par, then by all means solider on.

It would help to know your counting method, rules of the game, your betting spread, number of decks, heat level and penetration. Have you ever been-half shoed or bet restricted? Be sure not to give information on the internet that will identify you to the casino.

Quote: Blackjackbob

I read an article where a pro said it was impossible for a card counter not to show a profit during his playing lifetime.

He must have left out the important requirements also.

It still comes down to bet size vs. bankroll and total bankroll.

Just about all BJ counters are underfunded and way over bet their small bankrolls.


Some reading about this.
Alan Krigman has some good stuff
"Some blackjack buffs - casino bosses, too - believe card counters can consistently beat the house.
Not so.
Counting yields a modest edge or advantage or over the casino.
But, edge needs numerous decisions to earn money reliably... *****This is the one of the most important part of his article***

That's not all. Solid citizens also have limited bankrolls.
The law of large numbers presupposes that they can continue playing until edge overwhelms volatility.
But this doesn't hold for those who run out of money during normal cold spells.
The following three scenarios show how this works."
MORE EDGE IN AGGRESSIVE CARD COUNTING: IS IT ALWAYS BETTER?

and
MORE EDGE IN AGGRESSIVE CARD COUNTING: BJInfo.com Forum

Good Luck.
If you have an edge in BJ, you better make millions of wagers and have a large enough Bankroll to see your lifetime profits.

I had a similar experience lately, where I've found that if I play all weekend I've come out on top by the weekend's end. Had 8 winning trips this year, including a 1600 to 21k flip, 10k to 16.1k, and 3k to 10k. But about 2 weeks ago I took a hard 7.5k loss after about 26 total hours of play over the entire weekend. Couldn't win on any positive count or piece together more than 2 hands in a row, ratcheted back my aggression to less than half of Kelly Criterion still couldn't slowly pickup, maybe that hurt me though. By the end of the weekend, I've lost hope in hi-lo as an effective system, and felt that I was getting bent over by some sort of bias I couldn't explain...


I also play AC, and actually prefer the hand shuffle to 8 deck, mostly because you can get 6 deck shoes playing hand shuffle, and they tend to have better penetration than the 8 deck shoes, and to my own anectdotes, the count seems to hold up a little more accurately to what happens. Even when I think the count is too high for any low cards to be left in the 8 decks, they keep rolling them over.

APDave,
You're absolutely correct about the AC 8 deck game. Blackjack in AC has deteriorated so much since the earlier days....most casinos are hitting the soft 17, and the penetration on some decks is ludicrous. One house makes you display a player's card if you want to play two hands. I have to shop around for decent games because it's the only city where I can play right now.
You're right about the increasing plus counts in 8 deck games. I've backcounted and entered shoes after 5 decks have been dealt with high counts only to see the count increase. Once I entered with a running +15, yet when the cut card emerged the count was +31! The big cards were stuck behind the cut card. It was devastating for double downs and no dealer busts. This seems to occur more with the ASM tables than the hand shuffled, but maybe this is just my perception rather than statistical fact.
Question: I don't know the inner workings of the ASM, but could it clump cards in certain sections purposely? For example, most players when told to cut the shoe before the first round, will cut it near the middle. Mentally break the 8 decks into four sections of two. Starting from the top down, if the ASM developed a clump of large cards in the third quadrant, then after the dealer moved the cut deck around, those large cards would end up behind the cut card. Any thoughts on this? Also, is it possible that tha ASM can develop stiffs more than statistically relevant? If more of the players are stiffed, then the busting will occur more frequently. Sure, the dealer could get stiffed too, but the player must go first...thus the problem. I often wonder just how "random" those ASM's are.
A dealer friend of mine once told me that on the ASM table he was working, a display on the ASM read that the shuffling shoe was missing a queen. How did it know this?

The Shuffle Master products can usually read the cards in the shoe -- that's how they can tell whether anything is amiss with the deck, and it's also how they can reset to fresh-deck order (at least some of them have a command for this). As to developing stiffs more than statistically expected, if that were intentionally the case then the machine would be violating all sorts of regulations. That'd be no different than using a pre-shuffled baccarat shoe which was preordained to have no ties.

I mean I dont' believe there is a nefarious setting causing more stiffs, but in 8 decks there is just so many damn cards and with the ASM popping the next shoe up so fast they can deal just 2/3s through leaving so much randomness left in the deck. I'm done trying to beat an 8 deck game, luckily on less busy nights or during the day you can catch the 6 decks with S17 for 25s often enough. And even on a busy night usually for 50. Granted they're no mid-shoe but the max's are better so you can just weather the bad shoes at minimum and spread hard on the positive ones. It's definitely worked better for me than trying to beat the 8 deck shit.