Predict the 2012 election winners and losers, and official WoV contest.

Here we go with another WoV contest. The object will be to correctly pick:

1. The GOP presidential nominee.
2. The nominee's choice for vice president.
3. The winning party in the general election.

In the event nobody gets all three right I will award points as follows: 3 points for winning party, 2 points for GOP nominee, 1 point for GOP VP. In the event that does not break the tie the winner will be chosen randomly among those tied to win, or perhaps some tie-breaker game based on the electoral college, to be decided later.

The prize will be a surprise, but not of great financial value. If you don't like my offer, a donation made to charity will also be an option.

Please submit your predictions to me by PM (private message) by 11:59 P.M., Nov 6, 2011, which is one year before election day. I will post the predictions shortly thereafter.

Only three entries so far.

There are 13 more debates, its going to be a long
haul.

A year and a month is a LONG time in politics.

Quote: 7outlineaway

A year and a month is a LONG time in politics.

Indeed, and it has to be worth waiting till November starts. Whoever wins is going to deserve the praise.

Quote: Wizard

Only three entries so far.

I will wait for closer to the deadline. It may not make the guess any more valid, but I will feel better.

Since you didn't consider the possibility of multiple people getting all three answers correctly, you may want to throw in a tie-breaker.
Possibly guessing the number of popular votes that will go to the Republican team?

59,934,814 (2008)
62,040,610 (2006)
50,456,002 (2000)

Maybe not number of popular votes, but win margin percentage. By half percent increments?

Quote: APDave

Maybe not number of popular votes, but win margin percentage. By half percent increments?

The question is difficult enough to get all three parts correct. But usually with a tie breaker you don't specify any degree of accuracy, since you are simply looking for the closest answer. It's like jellybeans in a jar. You don't say "to the nearest 10 jellybeans" because the closest person wins. You might still get a tie, but the odds are much lower.

It wasn't really for degree of accuracy, notice no "nearest". It's just a format for guessing the percentages. Since a sub-1% or anything between 1 to 3 is probably going to be the results. Although, .5 might be too broad a brush. Regardless the accuracy was not the point of the increments.

Quote: pacomartin

Since you didn't consider the possibility of multiple people getting all three answers correctly, you may want to throw in a tie-breaker.
Possibly guessing the number of popular votes that will go to the Republican team?

I did consider that and said that in such an event the winner would be chosen randomly or by a tie-breaker question, to be decided later.

In the Super Bowl contest I said that in the event of a tie breaker those still with a chance of winning would be asked to predict the margin of victory. Although I didn't ask for such information yet, about 60% of entrants supplied it anyway. So this time I didn't want to confuse the issue with asking for the additional details now. However, as long as you bring it up, I will probably go by margin of victory in the electoral college.